$Apple(AAPL)$ The market as a whole has rebounded to pre-tariff levels. However, not all tech stocks have received the same treatment. For instance, Apple saw a significant sell order of 26,000 contracts for the June-expiring 240 call option ($AAPL 20250620 240.0 CALL$ ) on Friday.The 240 level carries some significance—it was the price level prior to the U.S. stock market crash on March 10. On that day, concerns about the health of the U.S. economy shifted investor risk preferences, and the dollar index fell to its lowest point since November of last year. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Microsoft's positive earnings report helped the market rebound to

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft will release its earnings after the close on Wednesday, but the outlook isn’t very optimistic. Azure’s business is facing macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to decreased demand. Microsoft’s FY25/FY26 total revenue estimates have been revised down to $27.52 billion and $30.648 billion, respectively.However, institutions seem optimistic about Microsoft’s trend. On April 24, options activity showed 16,600 contracts of $MSFT 20250815 430.0 CALL$  were bought, with a transaction value of over $10 million.On April 29, a significant bullish call spread strategy was executed on the exchange:Buy $MSF

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The most indicative SPY long put large order rolled positions, shifting from the June-expiry 545 put $SPY 20250620 545.0 PUT$  to the September-expiry 530 put $SPY 20250919 530.0 PUT$ . The respective volumes were 87,000 and 103,000 contracts.The rolled put option’s strike price is 530, which is lower than the original 545 strike price, suggesting a less optimistic outlook. However, compared to SPY's current price of 550, this pullback expectation is already relatively positive.Why is this the most indicative? The $SPY 2025

In addition to NVDA, TSLA, and SPY, there are also notable large orders for GOOGL, AAPL, PLTR, INTC, ASHR, and CORZ. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This week's fluctuation range is broadly 100–115 and narrowly 105–113, depending on the tech earnings reports this week. However, considering the stock price may align with 110 or even reach 120 before May 16, selecting a small position to sell put options with a strike price of 105 is reasonable.Special emphasis on small positions and risk control here. After all, we are in the middle of tariff negotiations. While Trump aims for a quiet earnings season for U.S. stocks, others may not think the same. Ideally, the stock price will trend upward during earnings season, but in a less ideal scenario, a sudden backstab coul

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Elon, it’s great to have you back!On Thursday, April 24, the four most representative bearish options were closed out: $TSLA 20250815 190.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 185.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 170.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 165.0 PUT$ .I talked about these positions in my March 12 article. This time, the bears didn’t close out everything, but they exited the majority. Even though Tesla’s fundamentals haven’t improved much, Musk’s return definitely forced the sho

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The market digested Trump’s dovish talk on Wednesday and split into two camps—one bullish, one still bearish.You see this reflected in SPY options positioning. The extreme bears are still pressing their bets, with institutions putting on June expiry butterfly spreads targeting below $475. The more moderately bearish are sticking to defined-risk strategies, like selling the $570 call, buying the $525$ put, and selling the $490 put.Bulls are more aggressive, choosing strategies like selling the $540 put and buying the $560 call.Here’s some of the notable action:Buying $SPY 20250430 560.0 CALL$ , volume: 14,000 contractsSelling

Tesla really lives up to its status as a “presidential stock”—even the earnings release got a presidential boost. After Tuesday’s close, Tesla reported earnings, and then Trump just happened to announce after hours that he won’t fire Powell and will lower tariffs on China.Remember, Trump previously made a big show of announcing “buy DJT” at the open and then, intraday, announced a 90-day tariff freeze. This time, making the announcement after hours looks an awful lot like he was giving his old friend a hand.Of course, being Trump, he couldn’t hold back—he had Bessent come out at noon Tuesday to talk up the China ADRs, sending them higher during the session.Normally, an intraday leak is enough for the market to price things in, but institutions stayed rational—options volume didn’t spike, i

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ The massive sell put at $175$, $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , was closed out on Monday.As mentioned in the April 15 article, someone sold 120,000 contracts of the $175 put expiring this week back on April 14. Unsurprisingly, they didn’t make much—by April 21, just four days before expiration, the position was hastily closed.Even though $175 is a deep out-of-the-money strike and close to expiration (so time decay should be fast), Monday’s chip stock crash caused put prices to rise instead of fall. The price ended up about the same as a week earlier, so the sell put didn’t make money.It’s the classic scenario: a huge put position gets closed, and chip stoc

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ TSMC reported earnings and maintained its original 20%–30% growth forecast, with robust AI demand. Still, this isn’t enough to reverse the overall weakness in chip stocks—prices are likely to retest previous lows.The largest bearish options position opened on Wednesday was the $NVDA 20250417 65.0 PUT$ , with 45,000 contracts. Not that anyone thinks it's going to $65$—this is more about trading volatility.So there are basically four bearish camps: $100$, $90$, $80$, and sub-$80$. Below $80$, it’s more about playing volatility, while most people see the range as below $100$, above $90$.Chances are, NVDA closes above $100$ this week. But if you’re holding short puts an

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Yesterday, we mentioned in our article that someone made a big move—selling 120,000 contracts of the $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , which is a “sell put” strategy. Literally speaking, this means he believes SMH won’t break below its previous low before April 25.But here’s the question: if you rewind to before Tuesday, was this strategy really in line with the current trend? New options traders probably think it’s fine, but seasoned players might raise an eyebrow after seeing this.Then on Tuesday, there was another big trade—44,000 contracts opened on the $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , but th

Fellow traders, there’s more drama to watch.Someone has placed a massive bet that chip stocks won’t fall below their previous lows before April 25th. Specifically, the trades involve selling $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , $TSM 20250425 130.0 PUT$ , and $MU 20250425 60.0 PUT$ . The positions are for 120,000 contracts, 70,000 contracts, and 50,000 contracts, respectively.If this isn’t based on insider information, then something’s definitely fishy.However, as my regular readers know, such blatantly targeted large trades are like waving cash in front of market makers—they’re irresistible bait.It’s

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ The level of information leakage has reached absurd proportions.Over the weekend, news broke that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced a new tariff rule on April 11th (Eastern Time). This rule exempts categories such as automatic data processors, computers, communication devices, displays and modules, and semiconductors from the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration.However, prior to the official announcement, on Friday, April 11th, unusual activity in KWEB options was observed. A massive order for 110,000 contracts of $KWEB 20250425 35.0 CALL$  was opened, with a total transaction value of over $5 mi

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Let’s start with a funny story: the whale who sold 90,000 contracts of the $130 put on Wednesday ran for the exit during Thursday’s session. Currently, the open interest for $NVDA 20250411 130.0 PUT$  stands at 58 contracts.We know this whale opened their position right before Wednesday’s close, which was at the highest price of the day. However, they closed out their position on Thursday at intraday lows.As a result, the market makers made a huge profit yet again. Assuming the whale’s closing price was $25 per contract, this trade resulted in a loss of about $90 million for them. In other words, the market makers pocketed $90 million in profits.I admit, I overesti

How should we understand the idea of "The market rebounded, but it's still unsafe"?Wednesday was absolutely absurd—arguably the most unforgettable trading day of this year. But as long as Trump remains in office, I believe this "most" will inevitably be outdone.At 1:24 PM on April 9th (U.S. time), Trump posted on his Twitter account, announcing that over 75 countries had contacted U.S. representatives to negotiate issues related to trade, trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation, and non-monetary tariffs. As a result, a 90-day suspension measure had been approved. This suspension applies to reciprocal tariffs, lowering them to 10% during this period, and it takes effect immediately.Unsurprisingly, the market soared collectively.This 13-hour tariff suspension announcement was essentia

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ At the current price level, it’s neither high enough nor low enough—both bulls and bears have reasons to feel nervous.Friday’s Action:The $55 put $NVDA 20250425 55.0 PUT$  opened on Friday was closed prematurely. It was closed at NVIDIA’s intraday high of $105, so the position didn’t make much profit.Market Reaction to Tariff News:Despite China's pre-market announcement of retaliatory tariffs (a 50% increase on all U.S. imports), the market didn’t continue to drop.Tuesday’s Option Activity Highlights:Institutional players closed their $99 calls and rolled them into $109 calls. Meanwhile, they continued to hold sell positions for $100, $101, and $102 calls.Large orde

On Monday, April 7, legendary investor Duan Yongping decisively bought the dip during intraday trading. His trading list spans multiple pages, with two main strategies: buying stocks outright and selling puts. Duan reportedly invested $400 million in U.S. blue-chip stocks and Tencent.Most of the sell puts he wrote have strike prices near the current stock price, with expiration dates covering every week over the next month. Selling at-the-money puts essentially signals a willingness to take ownership of the stock.So, is selling puts the best way to buy the dip? Let’s analyze: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Before discussing dip-buying, let’s assess future expectations.Expected Range:After Mond

Many of you are probably wondering about three key questions right now:How low will the stock price go?How long will it keep dropping?How will it rebound?Let’s analyze these questions using options data. One thing is certain: while implied volatility can be strategically shorted, the stock price itself may not have reached its bottom yet. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This Week’s Range: If we had to set a range, it would be $85–$100. The $100 upper limit is typically determined by institutions selling calls, while the $85 lower limit is more speculative, representing the short sellers' target price. A "safe" price point might be closer to $60.The Current Issue:Theoretically, the stock price has dropped enough, but that doesn’t mean it can’t fall further. Based o

The tariffs are here, and Trump didn't hold back—tariffs on Chinese goods have increased to 54%, which aligns with market expectations.However, meeting market expectations doesn’t mean the troubles are over. Excessive tariffs can lead to a series of subsequent problems, such as economic recession or challenges in controlling inflation. The future largely depends on the Federal Reserve’s actions.Let’s break down the key points:1. What Are the Specific Risks?Tariff Increases May Significantly Raise Core Inflation Rates:If the full impact is passed on to consumer prices, core inflation could rise by 2.5 percentage points. A more reasonable assumption is a 50% pass-through rate, which would result in core inflation increasing by 1 percentage point.The Federal Reserve May Cut Rates Due to Slowi

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Will the stock price rebound after the tariffs are finalized? The focus has now shifted to the impact of tariffs on CPI. Currently, the market is pricing in a 50bps increase in CPI due to the tariffs.If Powell adopts a hawkish stance in response—well, that could spell trouble.This makes it inevitable that Q2 will be volatile, as we once again wait on the Fed’s cues. Tariffs will finalize this week, followed by non-farm payrolls at noon, and next week we’ll get CPI data. Based on this, it seems likely that the 100 level will need to be retested in the coming weeks.On Tuesday, institutions rolled their spreads by selling the 114 call and buying the 119 call, indicating little optimism about surprises after the tariffs are finalized. T