Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ Source of titleclosed $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ ​roll $XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$

ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower. A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention. $NVDA Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M. As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else. Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasi

1 $Alcoa(AA)$ reasons for the rise similar to Macy's acquisition drive department store sector. I have been watching the trend of the metal sector since Nippon Steel announced its acquisition of $U.S. Steel(X)$ , and then I waited for this big 8000 lot CALL option order $AA 20240216 40.0 CALL$ . But as a rule of thumb, a large call order is 50-50, so I'd still go with the sell put: $AA 20240119 33.0 PUT$ 2 $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ The bears have finally struck, 20,000 lots of big PUT orders

$VIX$ A large VIX call order hit Tuesday: the 28 strike $VIX 20260519 28.0 CALL$  — 119.6k contracts, $11.48M in premium. A bet of this size implies a sharp, gap-filling move lower in the broader market. In theory, regional conflicts are winding down. The only thing Trump might be missing this time around — compared to 2025 — is that he never got to shout "buy" before the market did it on its own. But triggering a selloff just so he can make a speech? That sounds ridiculous. I'd rather believe someone else has an unknown reason to hedge with volatility. Another less clear VIX call: the 24 strike $VIX 20260722 24.0 CALL$ . The print landed right in the bid-

After more than a month of sideways, bulls and bears are impatient, Powell is also impatient, even said to speed up the pace of rate hikes, so the March rate hike probability of 50 basis points into 70%. ​Yesterday's article mentioned that there are two opinions in the market:Ultra-hawkish rate hike: 50 basis point rate hike probability in MarchDovish: The Fed can live with 3% if inflation doesn't fall quickly to 2%.Before yesterday, the market favored 2 more than 1.At the start of the year, the consensus was for a longer rate rise, not a higher one. There is a consensus that inflation cannot fall quickly, but there is a sense that rate rises need to be gradual and Mr Powell is unlikely to reverse his plan for gradual quarter-point increases. If inflation cannot come down quickly, the Fed'

Here's how this bizarre option strategy was discovered: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ soared last week on bank earnings, but I didn't see a significant move in JPM options, which I shouldn't have. Then I checked the move in the $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ :$XLF 20230421 33.5 CALL$ Institutions placed 10, 000 lots of near-term options expiring next week on the day before the JPM's earnings report, closed the next day and doubled the price at a rough estimate. It's a list you can't find unless you keep an eye on it.It can be seen that in some significant volatility on the institutions prefer to use ETF options trading. W