ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower.
A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention.
$NVDA
Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$ — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M.
As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else.
Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasingly plausible.
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$
Another large put order: $SMH 20260424 407.5 PUT$ — 50k contracts, notional ~$9M.
The execution pattern here closely resembles the insider MU trade. Likely a different institution, but the bearish view is probably aligned.
Does that guarantee a down week next week? Not necessarily. Large weekly put prints on semis happen every week. Still, combined with the bearish flow from the past couple of days, the odds of a pullback have increased. But there's always the risk that these positions end up as fuel for a short squeeze.
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