Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 15Dec25)
Labour Market and Federal Reserve Indicators
These reports are critical inputs for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
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The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll figures for November will be released. The previous reading was 119,000 jobs added.
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The Unemployment Rate for November is also due, with the previous forecast standing at 4.4%.
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Average Hourly Earnings for November will be published, which serves as a key indicator of wage inflation. The previous month-over-month increase was 0.2%.
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The latest Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported; the previous level was 236,000.
Inflation Measures
Inflation data is the most closely watched category, as unexpected increases can cause significant market volatility and disrupt the Federal Reserve’s plan to reduce interest rates.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. The previous readings were 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. Any uptick in these figures is likely to challenge the Fed’s easing strategy.
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The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data will be released. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator for inflation. The Core PCE Price Index (year-over-year) was previously 2.8%. A rise in PCE inflation will make it difficult for the Fed to move forward with plans to lower interest rates.
Sectoral Activity and Economic Outlook
These announcements provide a detailed look into the health of various sectors of the U.S. and global economy.
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Retail Sales data will be released. This represents current consumption levels in America and is a good reference for projecting consumer spending trends in the coming months.
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The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI for December will be published. These indices offer an outlook for both manufacturing and services globally. A figure that remains above 50 indicates expansion in the respective category.
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The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December is due. The previous reading was -1.7, serving as a specific reference for the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region.
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Existing Home Sales data will be released, reflecting the current state of the real estate market. The previous figure was 4.1 million units.
Commodities
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Crude Oil Inventories will be reported. The previous report showed a drop of $1.812$ million barrels. A continued drop in crude oil inventories is generally viewed as positive for production and consumption trends in the near future.
Earnings Calendar (15Dec25)
I’m interested in the coming earnings of Jabil, Micron, Accenture, FactSet, Nike, FedEx, Blackberry and Carnival.
Let us look into FedEx.
FedEx Overview
Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings
The stock price for FedEx has experienced a modest increase of 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Technical analysis currently indicates a “Strong Buy” recommendation, reflecting positive momentum in the stock’s performance. Furthermore, analyst sentiment supports a “Buy” rating, suggesting continued confidence in the company’s outlook. Despite this optimism, the consensus target price is set at $282.54, which implies a potential downside of approximately 0.63% from the current trading level.
Revenue Growth
FedEx has demonstrated significant revenue growth over the past decade. The company’s revenue increased from $50.3 billion in 2016 to $87.9 billion in 2025. While this 2025 figure is impressive, it does not surpass the highest annual revenues recorded in 2022 and 2023.
Operating Profit
The operating profit for FedEx grew from $3 billion in 2016 to $5.29 billion in 2025. The company’s record annual operating profit was achieved in 2023, reaching $6.5 billion.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Earnings per share for FedEx have also seen remarkable growth, rising from $6.51 in 2016 to $16.81 in 2025. The highest recorded EPS was $19.45 in 2021, according to independent global investment data.
Dividends
FedEx has steadily increased its dividends per share, growing from $1.00 in 2016 to $5.52 in 2025. This reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders.
Valuation and Margins
FedEx’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at an attractive 16.3. Over the past ten years, the company has maintained a median gross profit margin of 21.5% and a free cash flow (FCF) margin of 2.4%.
Valuation of Competitors
When assessing FedEx’s valuation, it is helpful to compare the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio with those of its primary competitors and the sector averages. Major competitors in the air freight and logistics industry include UPS, DHL, Expeditors International (EXPD), and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW). Their respective P/E ratios are as follows:
· UPS: 15.60
· DHL: 15.38
· EXPD: 24.70
· CHRW: 31.84
The sector average P/E ratio for air freight and logistics is approximately 18.8. Additionally, the average P/E ratio for the integrated freight and logistics segment is about 27.5. These figures provide important context for evaluating FedEx’s market valuation and competitiveness within the industry.
FedEx Valuation Considerations and Outlook
When evaluating FedEx’s stock for inclusion in our portfolio, it is important to note that FedEx appears somewhat more expensive compared to its major competitors. This higher valuation could be significant as we consider portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.
What remains essential, however, is to monitor FedEx’s outlook. The company’s performance may serve as an indicator for the broader global economic trends, making its trajectory especially relevant for strategic investment decisions.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (15Dec25)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
Following the recent bottom crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is now signalling an uptrend. A top crossover is expected soon, suggesting a potential reversal of the current trend.
Moving Averages
The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have recently converged and are now showing an upward trajectory. This convergence and subsequent uptrend further support the case for continued bullish momentum in the market.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.10 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
On a daily interval, technical indicators provide a clear picture of the current sentiment toward the S&P 500. Out of the 20 indicators analysed, 15 are issuing a “Buy” signal, while only 5 are signalling “Sell.” This strong majority in favour of buying suggests significant bullish momentum in the market.
When these signals are considered together, the technical analysis based on the daily divergence supports a recommendation of “strong buy” for the S&P 500. This consensus among indicators highlights a favourable outlook for the index in the near term.
CNN Fear and Greed Index
Based on the latest, the Fear & Greed index stands at “Fear” (with a score of 42). It seems to be trending upwards, away from fear towards greed.
The current daily and weekly S&P 500 chart shows an extended uptrend, though recent candlesticks (likely small bodies, long wicks, or bearish reversals like a Shooting Star or Bearish Engulfing on daily/intraday) suggest short-term caution and consolidation.
The long-term outlook remains bullish as the price is well above major moving averages, but the appearance of reversal patterns near highs indicates a potential short-term pullback is possible.
Market Outlook and Technical Considerations
The general market outlook remains bullish, reflecting optimistic sentiment among investors. However, it is important to exercise caution at this time due to the potential for an upcoming MACD top crossover. Such a technical event may signal a possible shift in momentum or a correction in the market, underscoring the need for careful monitoring and prudent decision-making in portfolio management.
News and my thoughts from the past week (15Dec25)
McDonald’s removed its AI-generated Christmas commercial after it went viral for being terrible. - X user HedgieMarket. Not every AI product is good and tasteful. I think it’s part of what I call the AI Dunning-Kruger effect. The people excited to use AI aren’t equipped to judge its outputs. Those who are equipped tend not to use it. - X user David V Stewart.
EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25%. NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES TO 75 BPS AGAIN. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, $BTC WILL DUMP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19. POSITION ACCORDINGLY. - X user OxNobler.
Crypto whale ‘James Wynn’ says a major crash is coming and longs will be “annihilated.” - X user Bitcoin Junkies
We have been informed about earthquakes, famines, pestilences, wars, and severe storms by St. Matthew & St. Luke. Let us prepare.
Recent reports highlight OpenAI’s challenges: HSBC projects $500B losses by 2030 due to high cash burn. Investors like Michael Burry predict collapse, citing insufficient funding. Losses reached $7.8B in H1 2025. Deals like Windsurf fell through, and partners hold $100B debt. However, no confirmed shutdown yet—it’s speculative amid AI competition. - Grok
JPMorgan is the largest lender to data center infrastructure so far in 2025, with exposure reaching nearly $6B in project level debt. - X user Wall St Engine
150,000 people have been killed and 10 million displaced in Sudan. Decades of atrocities have culminated in one of the worst humanitarian crises on Earth. - X user House Foreign Affairs Committee
Major investors are DUMPING Japanese government bonds: The Bank of Japan, domestic banks, insurers sold -¥10.7 TRILLION in Japanese Govt Bonds (JGBs) in September, the most EVER. Demand for Japanese debt is falling; no wonder yields are rising. - X user Global Markets Investor
US bottom earners are feeling the MOST PAIN in the world’s largest economy: Wage growth for the bottom 25% of earners has fallen to the lowest in 8 years. It has now remained below the wage growth of the top 25% for nearly 2 years, something that has not happened in at least a DECADE. So uneven economy. - X user Global Markets Investor
Oracle’s credit default swaps hit 141 basis points this week. The highest since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. - X user Shanaka Anslem Perera
Population collapse continues to accelerate - Elon Musk
China has sold $32 BILLION of US government bonds in 3 months, bringing its total to $700.5 billion, the lowest in 17 YEARS. China’s holdings have declined +$600 billion since 2013. China is diversifying from USD - X user Global Markets Investor
High-income U.S. households earning over $150,000 now make up a record 34% of all households, up 29 points since 1965, while the middle class has fallen to a record-low 45%, down 11 points, per Bloomberg.
26% of Americans say they spend more than they earn, per YF.
The average U.S. credit card balance is $6,523 as of September 2025. The U.S. credit card balances have climbed to $1.21 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2025 report. Source: EconomyApp. Is this a concern?
“If you think beef is expensive now, just wait until next year when prices could soar nearly 60%,” per FORTUNE
Switzerland REJECTS Palantir Software. Palantir Software Poses Devastating Risks - Netz Politik. After a risk assessment of the use of Palantir software in Switzerland, the US corporation was rejected, despite years of courting by authorities and the army. The Swiss consider the risks too great. The fear is that Palantir is handing over sensitive data to the US and from there to Israel. - X user Megatron
Warren Buffett protégé quits in blow to Berkshire Hathaway, Todd Combs exits stock-picking conglomerate as ‘Oracle of Omaha’ prepares to retire - Telegraph UK
People stop paying their credit cards first. Then they stop paying their auto loans. And lastly their mortgage payments. - X user Jon Brooks
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says: “Europe has driven business out, driven investment out and driven innovation out”
My Investing Muse (15Dec25)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
The number of company insolvencies in Germany are set to reach 23,900 in 2025, the most in 11 YEARS, according to credit agency Creditreform. This would mark the 5th consecutive annual increase. German economy is struggling. - X user Global Markets Investor
Wells Fargo LAYOFFS! They finally said AI isn’t ‘efficiency’... it’s headcount reduction. A pattern is forming you guys!!!! “We’re going to have lower headcount in the future.” CEO, Charlie Scharf. This is after shrinking from 275,000 down to 210,000 employees since 2019… and now they’re warning the next round is coming this quarter. - X user Amanda Goodall
We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language — ENGLISH! - Secretary Sean Duffy
Average of 75 drivers put out of service per day for failure to be English proficiency compliant - Craig Fuller
US private sector employment is FALLING in both services and goods sectors: US private payrolls in goods-producing industries fell -19,000 in Nov, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. In service-providing industries, private employment fell -12,000, the 5th drop since 2020. - X user Global Markets Investor
America’s debts & deficit
Here is some news about debts & deficit.
The US Treasury has issued a record $25.4 trillion in T-Bills over the last 12 months, lifting total Treasury issuance to a record $36.6 trillion. This means T-Bills now reflect 69.4% of all Treasury issuance, near an all-time high. The percentage has risen +27.6 points since the November 2015 low. In other words, the US government is increasingly financing its long-term obligations with debt that matures in just a few months. As a consequence, interest expense on public debt now moves nearly in lockstep with the Fed’s policy rate. If inflation resurges and the Fed is forced to raise rates again, interest costs will climb to unprecedented levels. The US debt crisis is intensifying. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The US deficit hit a RECORD $284.4 BILLION in October, the worst Oct in HISTORY. This surpassed the previous record of $284.1 billion set in 2020. Own HARD ASSETS because nothing is going to stop this. - X user Global Markets Investor
The good news is that we’ve increased the national debt by over $2 trillion since January 28th of this year... - X user VivalaCoin
Fed: We will buy $40 billion of treasury bills over the next 30 days. - X user FinancialJuice
US bankruptcies are running at a pace consistent with a RECESSION: US large bankruptcies reached 717 year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS. This is already higher than all full years since 2010, and above the last decade's average. In November, 62 big corporations went bankrupt. Even large US companies are struggling in this economy. - X user Global Markets Investor
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It is simple. The government cannot pay its debts, and will continue to print money ad infinitum. Focus on first principles, and own assets to protect yourself from this reality. - X user James Lavish
My Final Thoughts
CISCO’s stock reached its previous peak in 2000 after about 25 years. Is time in the market better than timing the market?
Investor sentiment toward Oracle is bearish, raising speculation about potential strategic moves in the AI sector.
Inflation remains stable, but the Fed’s asset buybacks have increased concerns about future inflation. Upcoming economic data will be crucial; if it contradicts expected rate cuts, market volatility may rise.
Bitcoin has hit a “death cross,” indicating a likely downward trend, as trading volumes confirm the bearish outlook. The S&P 500 continues to fall short of new highs.
A double top pattern in the S&P 500 signals a possible market correction soon.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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