My Investing Muse (15Dec25)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
The number of company insolvencies in Germany are set to reach 23,900 in 2025, the most in 11 YEARS, according to credit agency Creditreform. This would mark the 5th consecutive annual increase. German economy is struggling. - X user Global Markets Investor
Wells Fargo LAYOFFS! They finally said AI isn’t ‘efficiency’... it’s headcount reduction. A pattern is forming you guys!!!! “We’re going to have lower headcount in the future.” CEO, Charlie Scharf. This is after shrinking from 275,000 down to 210,000 employees since 2019… and now they’re warning the next round is coming this quarter. - X user Amanda Goodall
We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language — ENGLISH! - Secretary Sean Duffy
Average of 75 drivers put out of service per day for failure to be English proficiency compliant - Craig Fuller
US private sector employment is FALLING in both services and goods sectors: US private payrolls in goods-producing industries fell -19,000 in Nov, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. In service-providing industries, private employment fell -12,000, the 5th drop since 2020. - X user Global Markets Investor
America’s debts & deficit
Here is some news about debts & deficit.
The US Treasury has issued a record $25.4 trillion in T-Bills over the last 12 months, lifting total Treasury issuance to a record $36.6 trillion. This means T-Bills now reflect 69.4% of all Treasury issuance, near an all-time high. The percentage has risen +27.6 points since the November 2015 low. In other words, the US government is increasingly financing its long-term obligations with debt that matures in just a few months. As a consequence, interest expense on public debt now moves nearly in lockstep with the Fed’s policy rate. If inflation resurges and the Fed is forced to raise rates again, interest costs will climb to unprecedented levels. The US debt crisis is intensifying. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The US deficit hit a RECORD $284.4 BILLION in October, the worst Oct in HISTORY. This surpassed the previous record of $284.1 billion set in 2020. Own HARD ASSETS because nothing is going to stop this. - X user Global Markets Investor
The good news is that we’ve increased the national debt by over $2 trillion since January 28th of this year... - X user VivalaCoin
Fed: We will buy $40 billion of treasury bills over the next 30 days. - X user FinancialJuice
US bankruptcies are running at a pace consistent with a RECESSION: US large bankruptcies reached 717 year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS. This is already higher than all full years since 2010, and above the last decade's average. In November, 62 big corporations went bankrupt. Even large US companies are struggling in this economy. - X user Global Markets Investor
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It is simple. The government cannot pay its debts, and will continue to print money ad infinitum. Focus on first principles, and own assets to protect yourself from this reality. - X user James Lavish
My Final Thoughts
CISCO’s stock reached its previous peak in 2000 after about 25 years. Is time in the market better than timing the market?
Investor sentiment toward Oracle is bearish, raising speculation about potential strategic moves in the AI sector.
Inflation remains stable, but the Fed’s asset buybacks have increased concerns about future inflation. Upcoming economic data will be crucial; if it contradicts expected rate cuts, market volatility may rise.
Bitcoin has hit a “death cross,” indicating a likely downward trend, as trading volumes confirm the bearish outlook. The S&P 500 continues to fall short of new highs.
A double top pattern in the S&P 500 signals a possible market correction soon.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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