Jan Review: Gold/Silver/Bitcoin Crash —Is February for Buying or Bailing?

Tiger_comments
02-02
Reward Tiger-CoinsReward 500 Tiger-coins

January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.

January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?

In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:

  • $S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).

  • $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.

  • $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.

Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.

Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles

The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

Black Friday for Precious Metals:

  1. $XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.

  2. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.

A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.

Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.

February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?

1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?

Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."

2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.

Let's Discuss:

  • Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?

  • With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?

  • Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?

  • How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?

Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!

Jan Review: Is February for Buying or Bailing?
January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year. Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity? With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February? Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback? How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Reward expired
Due to insufficient number of valid participants, 500Tiger coins have been refunded to the initiator
Deadline to 02/11 03:51
Reward-post

Comments

  • koolgal
    02-03
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟Gold & Silver: A Deep Dive or a Golden Pit?  When precious metals fall, they don't fall politely.  They swan dive.  But here is the thing : Gold and Silver rarely crash because their fundamentals break.  They crash because humans panic , algorithms overreact and liquidity dries up at the worst possible moment.

    That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.

    If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.

    I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit.  My future self will thank me.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub

  • Shyon
    02-02
    Shyon
    January closed green, but for me it was a very unusual start to the year. While the S&P 500 and Dow advanced, the NASDAQ lagged. Value and defensives leading while tech underperforms tells me this isn’t a clean risk-on rally — it’s capital rotating & the market reassessing leadership.

    The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.

    Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • 1PC
    02-02
    1PC
    🐯Jan Recap: Green Indices, Crashing Metals SPX +1.37%, DJI +1.73%, IXIC +0.95% — January Barometer flashes green, but tech lagged. End‑month shock: XAG plunged 26%, XAU dropped 9%, BTC slid to $74.6K. Warsh’s hawkish Fed nomination fueled USD strength & liquidity stress.🎯My view: This deep dive is a Golden Pit opportunity — I’ll wait patiently for stabilization before adding long exposure.[Cool] @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel
    • Shyon: 
      Good say, thanks for sharing
  • Richer_Alpha
    02-03
    Richer_Alpha



    1月份最能说明问题的统计数据不是黄金崩盘，而是纳斯达克的低迷（+0.95%）。当市场领导者（大型科技公司）开始落后于蓝筹股时（$道琼斯(.DJI)$ ），这通常是“轻松赚钱”阶段结束的信号。“沃什冲击波”是一个唤醒看涨期权，流动性状况收紧的速度可能会快于定价。这解释了黄金、白银和比特币（7.4万美元）等零收益资产的同步抛售。二月展望：我怀疑二月将是一个波动的消化月。我正在削减高贝塔科技股敞口并持有更多现金，看看“一月效应”是否是一个错误信号。安全第一！🛡️$美国超微公司(AMD)$


  • TimothyX
    02-03
    TimothyX
    對新任美聯儲主席的預期推動了美元飆升，加上市場在數週無休止的上漲後過度緊張。泡沫瞬間破滅。

    密碼：$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10個月低點），而以太幣則回落至2025年6月以來的最高水平。流動性收緊的預期正在重創風險資產。

  • Mrzorro
    02-09 14:53
    Mrzorro
    As Goes January, So Goes the Year", I'm not sure about that but for gold, I think it's an opportunity to be ready to get into it ( for long-term investment) I won't be trimming my tech stocks, I will just hold and wait.
Leave a comment
27
19