Jan Review: Is February for Buying or Bailing?

January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year. Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity? With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February? Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback? How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?

avatarKYHBKO
02-24 11:20

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing Summary The report analyses the transformation of private markets in 2025, focusing on the impact of higher interest rates, the rise of private credit, the risks associated with Payment-in-Kind (PIK) provisions, and the evolving strategies for risk management and due diligence. It highlights how the sector is adapting to a new era of tighter liquidity, increased defaults, and a shift from growth-at-all-costs to capital preservation and transparency. Key Findings done with NoteBookLM 1. Macro Environment Shift The move from near-zero rates to a higher-rate paradigm has fundamentally changed private market valuations and liquidity needs. Public markets corrected sharply due to a lag in invest
The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:06

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies NEW GRADUATES NOW ACCOUNT FOR JUST 7% OF NEW HIRES AT BIG TECH COMPANIES, DOWN FROM 25% IN 2023 AND OVER 50% PRE-PANDEMIC, PER FORBES. CREDIT CARD DEBT IS BECOMING A GROWING FINANCIAL RISK. MORE THAN 12% OF BALANCES ARE 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT — THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 15 YEARS — WHILE AVERAGE INTEREST RATES ARE AROUND 21%. - First Squawk Walgreens to lay off hundreds of employees nationwide - MacroEdge America’s biggest wine maker shuts down production in Napa Valley in huge blow to wine heartland - California Post United Parcel Service (UPS) is planning to close dozens of packaging facilities this year, the shipping giant revealed in a court filing this week. - MacroEdge The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a recor
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:05

(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026) The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months.
(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:00

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026
definitely interested
avatarTBI
02-20

[26] ECL, GEV, ON

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[26] ECL, GEV, ON
avatarTBI
02-17

[23] CVS, HUM, TER

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[23] CVS, HUM, TER
avatarTBI
02-17

[20] ADBE, PONY, TEM

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[20] ADBE, PONY, TEM
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse for week starting 16Jan2026

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies 26% of the 7.5 million unemployed in the US actively searching for work have been looking for more than six months, per FT. The U.S. labour market faced a significant setback in January 2026, with employers announcing 108,435 job cuts—the highest January total since the Great Recession in 2009. - X user unusual whales FedEx plans to close over 475 stations due to Network 2.0 Plan - X user MacroEdge Salesforce lays off nearly 1,000 employees in early 2026 ahead of Q4 earnings report - X user MacroEdge Are the jobs in India permanent? Will the jobs be replaced by AI over the years? Image 9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic. This means at
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse for week starting 16Jan2026
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts for the week starting 16Feb2026

News and my thoughts from the past week (16Feb2026) US serious delinquencies are at CRISIS levels: Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days) for student loans spiked to a record 16.19% in Q4 2025. This is nearly DOUBLE the levels seen after the Great Financial Crisis. At the same time, credit card delinquencies are at 7.13%, the highest in 14 years and near the post-Financial Crisis peak. Similarly, auto loan delinquencies stand at 2.95%, almost matching all-time highs. Americans are defaulting on their debt at an alarming pace. - X user Global Markets Investor. The CEO of Microsoft AI says: “Most, if not all, office jobs—like lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketing officers—will be fully automated by AI within 12–18 months.” Former $GOOGL CEO Eric Schmidt: “We’re
(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts for the week starting 16Feb2026
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (16Feb2026) - Happy Lunar New Year

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 16Feb2026) Asian Market Closures for Chinese New Year Here is wishing all Chinese friends a blessed Chinese New Year. In observance of this festival, several major Asian markets will be closed during the upcoming week. China will be closed for the entire week, from Monday to Friday. Hong Kong will observe closures from Tuesday through Thursday, while Singapore will be closed from Tuesday to Wednesday for the Chinese New Year festivities. U.S. Public Holiday America will have a public holiday on Monday in celebration of Washington’s Birthday. Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases Durable Goods Orders: This important indicator serves as a key barometer for consumer activity within the United States. Core PCE Price Index: T
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (16Feb2026) - Happy Lunar New Year
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 16Feb2026 - PCE this week

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 16Feb2026) Asian Market Closures for Chinese New Year Here is wishing all Chinese friends a blessed Chinese New Year. In observance of this festival, several major Asian markets will be closed during the upcoming week. China will be closed for the entire week, from Monday to Friday. Hong Kong will observe closures from Tuesday through Thursday, while Singapore will be closed from Tuesday to Wednesday for the Chinese New Year festivities. U.S. Public Holiday America will have a public holiday on Monday in celebration of Washington’s Birthday. Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases Durable Goods Orders: This important indicator serves as a key barometer for consumer activity within the United States. Core PCE Price Index: The release
(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 16Feb2026 - PCE this week
buying or bailing what's the plans peeps 
avatarMrzorro
02-09
As Goes January, So Goes the Year", I'm not sure about that but for gold, I think it's an opportunity to be ready to get into it ( for long-term investment) I won't be trimming my tech stocks, I will just hold and wait.
Buying 🤗  All the good stocks are at a discount now! 
avatarKYHBKO
02-08

(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (09Feb2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (09Feb2026) If Bitcoin hit $8K, Microstrategy will be completely liquidated - X user Zee US M2 money supply is SKYROCKETING: The US money supply hit a record $26.7 TRILLION at the end of 2025. In 2.5 years, M2 has surged a massive $4 TRILLION. The value of the US Dollar is eroding at a record pace. - X user Global Markets Investor A former World Bank president has sounded the alarm, revealing that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars—and counting—turning it into nothing more than a massive hedge fund for the rich and powerful. He claims the Fed is borrowing money from banks at 5.4% interest, then pouring it into government bonds, creating the illusion that the government’s financial situation is better than it actually is. He warns th
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (09Feb2026)
avatarKYHBKO
02-08

(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (09Feb2026) - most indicators are bullish?

Market Outlook of S&P500 (09Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting right on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and probable changes to the short-term trend. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have completed a converging pattern and are now showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The
(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (09Feb2026) - most indicators are bullish?
Buying when everyone is running away is historically the best time to enter markets. 
who's buying and who's bailing 
February 2026 feels like one of those inflection-point months that separates emotional investors from disciplined ones. Markets are jittery, headlines are loud, and price action—especially in tech and AI—has been unforgiving. The question isn’t whether volatility exists; it’s whether that volatility signals danger or opportunity. On the bearish side, the arguments are obvious. Valuations in parts of the market remain stretched after years of liquidity-driven gains. Earnings expectations for high-growth names are still aggressive, leaving little room for disappointment. Macro uncertainty—rates staying “higher for longer,” geopolitical tensions, and election-year noise in the US—adds fuel to short-term risk-off behavior. If you’re overleveraged, overconcentrated, or relying on near-term liqu