Jan Review: Is February for Buying or Bailing?

January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year. Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity? With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February? Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback? How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?

Can CoreWeave (CRWV) Make A Last Buying Dash Or Bail Out AI?

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ is currently one of the most watched names in the AI infrastructure space. Since its IPO in March 2025, it has transitioned from a private "GPU disruptor" to a public "AI Hyperscaler." The upcoming fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, February 26, 2026, after market close. Key Estimates & Expectations Revenue Consensus: ~$1.5 billion for Q4 (Full-year 2025 target: ~$5 billion). EPS Consensus: Expected loss of -$0.45 per share. Context: While the company is still reporting net losses due to massive capital expenditures (CapEx), the market is currently prioritizing revenue growth and backlog expansion over immediate profitability. CoreWeave's fiscal Q3 2025 earnings report was a classic "good news, ba
Can CoreWeave (CRWV) Make A Last Buying Dash Or Bail Out AI?
avatarKYHBKO
02-24 11:20

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing Summary The report analyses the transformation of private markets in 2025, focusing on the impact of higher interest rates, the rise of private credit, the risks associated with Payment-in-Kind (PIK) provisions, and the evolving strategies for risk management and due diligence. It highlights how the sector is adapting to a new era of tighter liquidity, increased defaults, and a shift from growth-at-all-costs to capital preservation and transparency. Key Findings done with NoteBookLM 1. Macro Environment Shift The move from near-zero rates to a higher-rate paradigm has fundamentally changed private market valuations and liquidity needs. Public markets corrected sharply due to a lag in invest
The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:05

(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026) The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months.
(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:06

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies NEW GRADUATES NOW ACCOUNT FOR JUST 7% OF NEW HIRES AT BIG TECH COMPANIES, DOWN FROM 25% IN 2023 AND OVER 50% PRE-PANDEMIC, PER FORBES. CREDIT CARD DEBT IS BECOMING A GROWING FINANCIAL RISK. MORE THAN 12% OF BALANCES ARE 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT — THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 15 YEARS — WHILE AVERAGE INTEREST RATES ARE AROUND 21%. - First Squawk Walgreens to lay off hundreds of employees nationwide - MacroEdge America’s biggest wine maker shuts down production in Napa Valley in huge blow to wine heartland - California Post United Parcel Service (UPS) is planning to close dozens of packaging facilities this year, the shipping giant revealed in a court filing this week. - MacroEdge The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a recor
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility
avatarKYHBKO
02-22 18:00

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026
avatarTBI
02-20

[26] ECL, GEV, ON

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[26] ECL, GEV, ON
definitely interested
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 16Feb2026 - PCE this week

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 16Feb2026) Asian Market Closures for Chinese New Year Here is wishing all Chinese friends a blessed Chinese New Year. In observance of this festival, several major Asian markets will be closed during the upcoming week. China will be closed for the entire week, from Monday to Friday. Hong Kong will observe closures from Tuesday through Thursday, while Singapore will be closed from Tuesday to Wednesday for the Chinese New Year festivities. U.S. Public Holiday America will have a public holiday on Monday in celebration of Washington’s Birthday. Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases Durable Goods Orders: This important indicator serves as a key barometer for consumer activity within the United States. Core PCE Price Index: The release
(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 16Feb2026 - PCE this week
avatarTBI
02-17

[20] ADBE, PONY, TEM

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[20] ADBE, PONY, TEM
avatarTBI
02-17

[23] CVS, HUM, TER

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[23] CVS, HUM, TER
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse for week starting 16Jan2026

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies 26% of the 7.5 million unemployed in the US actively searching for work have been looking for more than six months, per FT. The U.S. labour market faced a significant setback in January 2026, with employers announcing 108,435 job cuts—the highest January total since the Great Recession in 2009. - X user unusual whales FedEx plans to close over 475 stations due to Network 2.0 Plan - X user MacroEdge Salesforce lays off nearly 1,000 employees in early 2026 ahead of Q4 earnings report - X user MacroEdge Are the jobs in India permanent? Will the jobs be replaced by AI over the years? Image 9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic. This means at
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse for week starting 16Jan2026
avatarJC888
01-27

Litigious Trump sue JP Morgan. Who Wins?

On 23 Jan 2026, the American business landscape finds itself at a volatile crossroads. Fresh off the TACO boat on Greenland saga, news arrived that Trump has filed a $5 billion lawsuit against $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and its CEO, Jamie Dimon. (see below) This marks a significant escalation in the administration’s war against what it terms "woke capitalism" and the practice of "debanking". Does this action by Trump indicate a wider strategy against US financial sector? Let’s see. The JPMorgan Lawsuit. The “shot across the bow” lawsuit, filed alleges that US #1 bank - JPMorgan Chase closed Trump’s personal and business accounts in early 2021, purely for political reasons, effectively "blacklisting" Trump from the global financial system.   Just
Litigious Trump sue JP Morgan. Who Wins?
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts for the week starting 16Feb2026

News and my thoughts from the past week (16Feb2026) US serious delinquencies are at CRISIS levels: Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days) for student loans spiked to a record 16.19% in Q4 2025. This is nearly DOUBLE the levels seen after the Great Financial Crisis. At the same time, credit card delinquencies are at 7.13%, the highest in 14 years and near the post-Financial Crisis peak. Similarly, auto loan delinquencies stand at 2.95%, almost matching all-time highs. Americans are defaulting on their debt at an alarming pace. - X user Global Markets Investor. The CEO of Microsoft AI says: “Most, if not all, office jobs—like lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketing officers—will be fully automated by AI within 12–18 months.” Former $GOOGL CEO Eric Schmidt: “We’re
(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts for the week starting 16Feb2026

🎉Tiger Brokers Celebrates "Trade to Win Season 4" Winners and Announces 2026 Season

Together We Win, Together We Shine.🏆A Record-Breaking Season Comes to a Glorious CloseSINGAPORE – This past Saturday, Tiger Brokers Singapore's marketing team hosted the much-anticipated award ceremony for Trade to Win Season 4, celebrating the exceptional achievements of the 2025 Q4 trading competition. The event brought together thousands of participants who demonstrated remarkable trading prowess throughout the three-month competition period from September 29 to December 28, 2025.💬 Love trading? Want to be our next champion? Trade to Win 2026 is calling your name! Stay tuned for registration!Season 4 By The NumbersThis season shattered previous records with over 6,000 registered participants forming more than 900 teams, all competing for trading supremacy. The statistics tell a story of
🎉Tiger Brokers Celebrates "Trade to Win Season 4" Winners and Announces 2026 Season
avatarReynor
01-30

Futures Lecture Transcript: Will Gold And Silver Hit A Major Top In February?

Guest Speaker:Mingzhe Gu : A professional trader with 15 years of experience in equities and international futures. He serves as a guest lecturer for several major global exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and is also the founder of Win-at-the-Start Investment Academy. He is currently the General Manager of Shanghai Qigu Information Technology.As an active Chinese presence on international futures platforms, in 2021 he once again emerged as a leading competitor in a live trading competition’s overseas-markets division, taking multiple awards with ease: 7th place in the Global Heavyweight Group, 1st prize in CME COMEX Copper Options, 1st prize in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Options, and 2nd prize in NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Options.Yesterday, Master Gu reviewed the major globa
Futures Lecture Transcript: Will Gold And Silver Hit A Major Top In February?
avatarxc__
01-30

🚨 Trump's Bold Fed Shake-Up: Warsh In – Markets Wobble, But Is This the Ultimate Buy Signal? 📉🔥

President Trump just dropped a bombshell by nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, set to replace Jerome Powell when his term wraps up in May. This 55-year-old conservative economist, who served as the youngest Fed Governor ever during the 2008 financial crisis, brings a hawkish vibe that's got Wall Street buzzing with mixed emotions. 🏦💼cnn.com Warsh isn't your typical central banker – he's slammed the Fed for dragging its feet on rate hikes back in 2022, accused them of losing credibility through over-the-top post-COVID stimulus, and warned that quantitative easing (QE) pumps up asset bubbles while widening inequality gaps. He pushes for a rules-based approach to policy, shrinking the Fed's massive balance sheet, and laser-focusing on price stability. 😎 But here's the t
🚨 Trump's Bold Fed Shake-Up: Warsh In – Markets Wobble, But Is This the Ultimate Buy Signal? 📉🔥
avatarKYHBKO
02-15

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (16Feb2026) - Happy Lunar New Year

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 16Feb2026) Asian Market Closures for Chinese New Year Here is wishing all Chinese friends a blessed Chinese New Year. In observance of this festival, several major Asian markets will be closed during the upcoming week. China will be closed for the entire week, from Monday to Friday. Hong Kong will observe closures from Tuesday through Thursday, while Singapore will be closed from Tuesday to Wednesday for the Chinese New Year festivities. U.S. Public Holiday America will have a public holiday on Monday in celebration of Washington’s Birthday. Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases Durable Goods Orders: This important indicator serves as a key barometer for consumer activity within the United States. Core PCE Price Index: T
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (16Feb2026) - Happy Lunar New Year

S&P 500 Hits Record Close as Investors Await Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings

U.S. stocks delivered a mixed performance on Tuesday, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing at a new record as investors looked past uneven earnings results and positioned ahead of a critical Federal Reserve decision and a wave of Big Tech earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,978, marking its fifth consecutive gain and a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9%, pushing the tech-heavy index close to its own record level. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 409 points (-0.8%), weighed down heavily by losses in healthcare stocks. Healthcare Drags the Dow Lower The Dow’s decline was largely driven by UnitedHealth Group, which sank after reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. The stock was further pressured by rep
S&P 500 Hits Record Close as Investors Await Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings

Fed Turns Hawkish—Risk Incoming? A Silver Bear Spread Setup—and Why I’m Waiting on Gold

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$
Fed Turns Hawkish—Risk Incoming? A Silver Bear Spread Setup—and Why I’m Waiting on Gold

What a Year Already: Dow Slides as Trump Names Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair

January felt like much more than just one month on Wall Street, and Friday’s session did little to slow the pace. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179 points, or 0.4%, closing out a volatile end to the month. While the Dow gained 1.7% in January, those gains were heavily front-loaded. The index has now declined for three consecutive weeks, marking its longest weekly losing streak since December 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Still, zooming out paints a different picture: January marked the Dow’s ninth straight monthly gain, its longest winning streak since 2018. January Wrap: Stocks Finish Higher Despite Late Weakness Other major indexes also slipped Friday: The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.4% on the day but finished up 1.4% for the
What a Year Already: Dow Slides as Trump Names Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair