Can CoreWeave (CRWV) Make A Last Buying Dash Or Bail Out AI?

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ is currently one of the most watched names in the AI infrastructure space. Since its IPO in March 2025, it has transitioned from a private "GPU disruptor" to a public "AI Hyperscaler."

The upcoming fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, February 26, 2026, after market close.

Key Estimates & Expectations

Revenue Consensus: ~$1.5 billion for Q4 (Full-year 2025 target: ~$5 billion).

EPS Consensus: Expected loss of -$0.45 per share.

Context: While the company is still reporting net losses due to massive capital expenditures (CapEx), the market is currently prioritizing revenue growth and backlog expansion over immediate profitability.

CoreWeave's fiscal Q3 2025 earnings report was a classic "good news, bad guidance" story. While the headline numbers showed explosive growth, the subsequent sell-off—where the stock dropped roughly 16%—provided a stark lesson in how the market values high-growth AI infrastructure.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

• Revenue: $1.36 billion, up 134% year-over-year, beating estimates of $1.29 billion.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported a loss of -$0.22, significantly better than the expected loss of -$0.57.

• Revenue Backlog: Nearly doubled to $55.6 billion, driven by massive new contracts with Meta ($14.2B) and OpenAI ($6.5B addition).

• Operational Power: Reached 590 MW of active power, with a long-term goal of 2.9 GW (gigawatts).

The Guidance "Lesson Learnt"

Despite the beat on both top and bottom lines, the stock price collapsed because management lowered the full-year 2025 revenue guidance.

The Lesson: Infrastructure is the Bottleneck, Not Demand

The primary takeaway for investors was that CoreWeave’s growth is currently limited by construction, not customers. Management cited "delays in powered-shell delivery" (meaning the physical data center buildings weren't ready for chips to be plugged in).

1. Execution Risk > Demand Risk: Investors learned that having a $55 billion backlog doesn't matter if you can't "turn the lights on" in a data center. The market now views data center delivery timelines as a higher risk factor than the actual demand for GPUs.

2. The "Lumpiness" of Hypergrowth: Because CoreWeave deals with massive, 100MW+ data centers, a delay of just two weeks on one site can cause a $100M+ revenue miss for a quarter. This creates a "lumpy" revenue realization that makes the stock prone to high volatility.

3. The High Cost of Scaling: Operating margins fell to 4% (down from 20% a year ago) because the company is hiring and spending ahead of revenue. Investors realized that the "path to profitability" is being pushed further out to fund the 2.9 GW capacity goal.

Market Sentiment Shift

Prior to Q3, CRWV was traded as a "pure-play AI bet." After Q3, it began being traded more like a capital-intensive industrial company. The lesson learned is that for CRWV to sustain its valuation, it must prove it can manage complex real estate and power logistics, not just secure GPU allocations from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors will be scanning the report for these three high-impact "pulse points":

• Revenue Backlog: This is the "holy grail" for CoreWeave. As of Q3 2025, the backlog stood at $55.6 billion. Any significant jump here signals that big tech (Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI) is still hungry for GPU capacity through 2026.

• Active vs. Contracted Power: Look for updates on their megawatt (MW) capacity. Last quarter they had ~590 MW active but 2.9 GW contracted. The speed at which they turn "contracted" power into "active" power determines how fast they can recognize revenue.

• NVIDIA Blackwell Deployment: CoreWeave was the first to deploy the GB300 NVL72 systems. Management commentary on the availability and ramp-up of Blackwell chips will be a proxy for the entire AI sector's health.

• Debt & Interest Burden: With a debt pile nearing $18 billion, the cost of servicing that debt is significant. Watch for "Adjusted EBITDA" as a better measure of operational health than GAAP Net Income.

CoreWeave (CRWV) Price Target

Based on 29 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for CoreWeave in the last 3 months. The average price target is $124.44 with a high forecast of $234.00 and a low forecast of $41.00. The average price target represents a 25.32% change from the last price of $99.30.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

CoreWeave has shown high volatility post-earnings, often swinging 8–12% in the 48 hours following the release.

The Bull Case (The "Beat and Raise")

• The Setup: If CoreWeave beats the $1.5B revenue target and raises 2026 guidance (currently estimated at $12B by analysts), the stock could challenge its recent highs.

• Indicator: A surprise increase in the Meta or OpenAI contract values would be a massive catalyst.

The Bear Case (The "CapEx Hangover")

• The Setup: If the net loss is wider than -$0.45 or if there are mentions of "data center delays" or "Blue Owl funding snags" (which have been rumored recently), the stock may face a sharp pullback.

• Risk: 86% of revenue comes from just four customers. Any hint of "softness" from one of these hyperscalers could trigger a sell-off.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing CRWV trading in a range-bound trading as it tried to keep its share price near the 50-day period, though the RSI momentum remains positive but the bulls is facing a tough task to make a uptrend continuation as the AI CAPEX fears continue with NVDA earnings coming on 25 Feb before CRWV.

So will the market react if the demand for AI chips and data centres remains strong, or CAPEX spending is still a concern, considering that $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ multiple years deal with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ as they are collaborating across silicon, systems and software to enable AI infrastructure at a global scale that accelerates AI development.

Summary

CoreWeave (CRWV) is set to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 26, 2026, after market close. This report is a "prove it" moment for the company following a volatile Q3 that saw the stock tumble due to infrastructure delays.

Q4 Earnings Outlook

• Revenue Consensus: $1.55 billion (Full-year target: ~$5.1 billion).

• EPS Consensus: Expected loss of -$0.49 to -$0.68.

• Backlog: Anticipated to hold steady in the mid-to-high $50 billion range, reflecting long-term commitments from giants like Meta and OpenAI.

The "Execution" Lesson

The primary takeaway from recent guidance is that demand is no longer the variable—execution is. The market is less concerned with new contract wins and more focused on "Time to Power." In Q3, CoreWeave lowered its outlook because physical data center shells weren't ready for chips. For Q4, investors are looking for:

1. Capacity Milestones: Progress toward the 850 MW active power goal by year-end.

2. Blackwell Deployment: Updates on the rollout of NVIDIA’s GB300 systems, where CoreWeave holds "first-mover" status.

3. 2026 Guidance: Analysts expect 2026 revenue to double to $12 billion; any deviation from this trajectory will likely trigger high volatility.

Short-Term Trading Analysis

The stock currently trades around $90, well below its $187 high. Historical data shows that CRWV is prone to double-digit swings (averaging 12%+) post-earnings.

• The Opportunity: A "beat and raise" regarding 2026 capacity could spark a massive short-covering rally toward the $110–$120 resistance levels.

• The Risk: CoreWeave is burning roughly $2 billion per quarter in CapEx. If the net loss is wider than expected or if management cites further power/utility delays, the stock could retest its post-IPO support levels.

Strategic Note: Watch for commentary on the NVIDIA $2 billion investment from January 2026. This funding "de-risks" the balance sheet, potentially making the stock more resilient to a slight earnings miss than it was in Q3.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think CRWV would be benefiting from the on-going investment and also demand for data centre to justify its burn rate per quarter.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.