Market Recap (April 2, 2025) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.4% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.9% (broke 4-day losing streak) Dow Jones: -0.1% (flat) Key Market Themes: U.S. Labor Market Softens But Remains Resilient Job Openings to Unemployed Workers Ratio: 1.1x (lowest since 2021, but still high historically). Hires to Layoffs/Discharges Ratio: 3.0x, signaling a slowdown. Quits Rate: Elevated, indicating worker confidence. Labor market weakness could limit the Fed’s flexibility, but it’s not weak enough to justify rate cuts just yet. Tariff Anxiety Reaches Peak Ahead of “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trump expected to announce new reciprocal tariffs targeting trade partners with high duties on U.S. goods. Uncertainty over in

Friday’s Market Performance: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -2.0% Dow Jones: -1.7% (-716 points) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -2.7% Weekly Streak: 7 of the past 9 weeks in the red The latest economic data stoked fears of stagflation, a toxic mix of high inflation and stagnant growth. Key Indicators: Inflation Remains Sticky Core PCE Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge): +0.4% MoM (vs. 0.3% est.) Inflation expectations: 5% (highest since Nov. 2022) Consumer Spending is Slowing US Consumer Real spending: +0.1% last month Consumer sentiment: 57 (lowest in 2+ years) Tariff Uncertainty Adding to Woes Trump's 25% auto tariffs take effect next week Investors worry about higher costs and retaliation What is Stagflation? Stagf

Major Index Performance (Monday): Dow Jones: +1.4% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.8% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +2.3% 🌟 Why the Rally? Reports suggest broad sectoral tariffs (autos, semiconductors, etc.) might be delayed beyond April 2. Markets interpreted this as a sign of stabilization in trade policy. Risk-on assets surged: $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ +3.3% $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ Bitcoin: Even bigger gains and VIX (Fear Gauge): -9% Tech Markets cheered the possibility of "peak chaos" in trade policy passing—but uncertainty remains. The VIX Playbook in Action S&P 500 has gained 2.7% since March 10, when the VI

Bull Trap, not sure because the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   seems to crash. The $Cboe SKEW Index(SKEW)$   does not reflect panic or even a paradigm shift. 6,000 $S&P 500(.SPX)$   will be a test to watch.

Major Index Performance (Friday & Weekly Gains): Dow Jones: +0.1% (+1.2% for the week). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.1% (+0.5% for the week) and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.5% (+0.2% for the week) First positive week after weeks of losses: S&P & Nasdaq snapped 4-week losing streaks Dow broke a 2-week skid 1️⃣ Friday Rally: "No News is Good News" Tech Stocks Rebound: $Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ Magnificent Seven ETF ( $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, Tesla) jumped. $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(

Market Performance (Wednesday): $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.1% (Best Fed-day since July 2024). $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +1.4%. Consumer Discretionary Stocks: +1.9% (Leading the rally) . $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (Lowest March reading) Powell Press Markets responded positively to Powell’s steady stance on rate cuts and reassurance on economic resilience. The S&P 500 is now at a critical juncture, with the VIX needing to decline further to confirm a sustained bull market. 1️⃣ Key Takeaways from Powell & the Fed Meeting Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach remains in place 2 rate cuts still projected for 2024 Inflation forecast revised UP, economic growth forecast revised

Market Performance (Tuesday): $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -1.1% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -1.7% Dow Jones: -260 points (-0.6%) Despite better-than-expected housing and industrial production data, investor jitters ahead of the Fed meeting dragged markets lower. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ 1️⃣ US Labor Market Weakening Labor market softness could impact consumer spending and economic growth. The US labor market is shifting from normalization to noticeable weakening: Job switchers vs. job stayers wage gap hit a 10-year low → Recessionary signal. Office occupancy at a post-pandemic high → More employees

Despite weak retail sales data and lower GDP projections, investors kept buying the dip, pushing stocks higher for a second consecutive day. Index $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.6% Dow Jones: +353 points (+0.9%) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.3% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 1️⃣ Volatility Index (VIX) Signals Caution VIX closed at 19.5, which historically acts as: A ceiling in bear markets (signaling more downside risk) A floor in bull markets (indicating support for stocks)… $VIX Neither a full bull nor bear market → The VIX will likely dictate direction in t

Wall Street found some relief today as cooling inflation encouraged investors to buy the dip in risk assets. However, despite softer CPI data, rate cut expectations for May and June actually declined. ✅ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +1.2% (Tech leads rally) $Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ $MGK ✅ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.5% (Despite ⅔ of stocks closing lower) 🔻 Dow Jones: -82 points (-0.2%). 📊 Market breadth was weak, as shown by: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: -0.5% Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF: +1.6% (Riskier stocks surged) Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF: -1.1% (Defensive stocks lagged) 1️⃣ Inflation Cools, But Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop February CPI: +0.2

Markets attempted three separate rallies today, but each one failed, leaving major indexes in the red once again: 🔻 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.8% (briefly entered correction territory) 🔻 $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -0.2% (-9.3% from record highs) 🔻 Dow Jones: -478 points (-1.1%). $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ $PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC(0A7R.UK)$ Stocks While some choppiness is expected during new administrations, this level of policy-driven volatility is unprecedented, particularly with the rapid-fire p

Monday saw a brutal selloff in U.S. equities, with recession fears, tariff uncertainty, and political instability driving a wave of risk-off sentiment. 🔻 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -2.7% (worst day of 2025) 🔻 $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -4% (worst drop since Sept. 2022) 🔻 Dow Jones: -890 points (-2.1%) Volatility surged—the $ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ spiked to 27.9, signaling a key inflection point for markets. $VIX 1️⃣ Recession Talk Hits Wall Street Hard Markets have been on edge for weeks, but President Trump’s Sunday comments on Fox News added fuel to the fire. Trump wouldn’t rule out a recession, calling the economic environment a “period of transition.” John Silvia (

Friday’s February jobs report delivered a mixed-but-reassuring signal for investors: Hiring slowed but remained stable, wages grew at a sustainable pace, and unemployment ticked up slightly—but not alarmingly. That was enough for markets to recover from an early selloff, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors that the economy remains in a ‘good place’ despite uncertainty. 1️⃣ Jobs Report: Slow, But Steady Jobs 151,000 jobs added in February, slightly below expectations (160,000) Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (from 4.0%) Wages grew 4% year-over-year, 0.3% month-over-month—healthy, but not inflationary Key sector trends: Healthcare, finance, and transportation hiring accelerated Federal jobs declined, as the Department of Government Efficiency cut staff Leisure & hos