Markets Start the Week with a Strong Rally

Major Index Performance (Monday): Dow Jones: +1.4% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.8% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +2.3%

🌟 Why the Rally?

• Reports suggest broad sectoral tariffs (autos, semiconductors, etc.) might be delayed beyond April 2.

• Markets interpreted this as a sign of stabilization in trade policy.

• Risk-on assets surged: $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ +3.3% $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ Bitcoin: Even bigger gains and VIX (Fear Gauge): -9%

Tech

Markets cheered the possibility of "peak chaos" in trade policy passing—but uncertainty remains.

The VIX Playbook in Action

S&P 500 has gained 2.7% since March 10, when the VIX spiked 1 standard deviation above its long-run average. The next key level? VIX needs to stay below 19.5 to confirm the worst is over.

$VIX

olatility is cooling, but investors want more confirmation before calling a bottom…

Few S&P 500 stocks ever get a "Sell" rating from analysts. The top 10 most-sold stocks often outperform expectations—making them an interesting place for long opportunities.

When sentiment is overly bearish, some of these "Sell" stocks could be hidden gems.

Tech Stocks Echo 1990s Nasdaq Rally

Since December 2022, the Nasdaq is up 78%—similar to its 69% gain over the same period starting in 1995. The Nasdaq also dipped in Q1 1997 due to valuation & policy concerns—but rebounded quickly. 💡If history repeats, today’s tech bull market is still intact, but with bumps along the way.

Tech bull markets driven by innovation tend to be volatile, but long-term trends remain strong.

The Tariff Rollercoaster: Markets Hope for a Softer Approach

Trump hinted that some tariffs may be delayed or softened. But uncertainty lingers:

Fox News

• Reciprocal tariffs still set for April 2.

• Businesses (Delta, FedEx, Dick’s) warn of potential profit hits.

• Long-term impact on global trust & trade relationships is hard to measure.

Despite market optimism, investors remain cautious:

• Wall Street still expects 10% S&P 500 earnings growth this year.

• Tech sector projected to grow profits by 18%.

Markets are pricing in a tariff de-escalation, but companies are waiting for more clarity before making major adjustments.

Final Thought: Stability Needed Before a True Market Bottom

Ritholtz’s Callie Cox: "Americans are bracing for economic trouble, but Wall Street is confident corporate America will be fine."

Until more clarity emerges on tariffs & government layoffs, markets may stay volatile.

What to Watch: 1️⃣ VIX staying below 19.5 for confirmation that market fears have eased. 2️⃣ Earnings season—Will companies revise guidance based on tariffs? 3️⃣ Tech & Small Caps—Will the Nasdaq continue mirroring the 1990s rally?

Expect more choppy trading until concrete policy decisions are made…

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.