To The Moon

Markets Rally Despite Tariff Tensions Rally US stocks wrapped up a strong week with another positive day, powered by tech strength and resilient earnings: Dow Jones: +20 points (+0.05%) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.7% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +1.3% Weekly performance: S&P 500: +4.6% Nasdaq Composite: +6.7% The Nasdaq just posted its best week since January, despite tariff headlines threatening to spoil the mood. Earnings Shielding Markets — For Now $Alphabet(GOOG)$ strong report (+1.7% Friday) helped ease tech sector nerves. The company’s Search, YouTube subscriptions, and Google Play businesses drove revenue beats — with no mention of tariffs on the call, which soothe

Fed Opens the Door to Rate Cuts — Markets Cheer Fed Wall Street found its latest reason to rally: Federal Reserve officials signaling openness to interest rate cuts — possibly as early as June. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the central bank could act soon if it sees clearer data on economic direction. Governor Christopher Waller added he’d support cuts if Trump’s tariff strategy starts costing American jobs. The Fed is still in “wait and assess” mode, but the tone has clearly softened. Markets Rally for Third Straight Day — Tech Leads the Charge The S&P 500 officially exited correction territory Thursday with a 2% gain, now up 10% from its April 8 lows. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.0% to 5,485 $N

Markets Rebound Sharply on Hopes of Trade De-escalation Wall Street roared back Tuesday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered the first real hint of a potential truce in the US–China trade standoff. Bessent called the current tariff escalation “unsustainable” and predicted de-escalation “in the very near future.” Dow Jones: +1,017 pts (+2.7%) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.5% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +2.7% Optimism that the worst of tariff tensions may be behind us — and that talk of Fed interference may be more bark than bite. President Trump walked back speculation of removing Chair Powell, saying he has “no intention” of firing him, though reiterated his desire for faster rate cuts. Hope Morning Briefing Hig

Markets Sink as Political Risk, Powell Feud Shake Confidence Markets kicked off the week deep in the red: Dow Jones: –2.5% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –2.4% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –2.6% Lack of economic data left investors to focus on Washington turmoil, from tariff confusion to an increasingly personal feud between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump called Powell a “major loser” and pushed again for immediate interest rate cuts, raising concerns about central bank independence. Crisis of confidence Morning Briefing Highlights: Markets, Data, Disruption Markets: Retest of Lows Feels Likely History suggests a market bottom often requires a retest — and we may be headed there. For April 8t

April 15, 2025 Markets Drop as Powell Dashes Hopes for Fed Rescue Equity markets sold off sharply today after a double hit of negative trade news and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Powell Dashes Hopes Dow Jones: –1.7% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –2.2% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –3.1% (Nasdaq trimmed losses in the final 30 minutes with a late 1.4% bounce) The session started with modest losses after chipmakers disclosed billions in charges tied to new export restrictions on AI technology headed to China. Later, Powell’s remarks added fuel to the fire: Key Powell Quotes: “Tariffs increase costs.” “Markets are functioning as expected in times of high uncertainty.” “The bar for intervention rema

April 14, 2025 Tariff Tango A Volatile Dance: Tech Exemptions, Tweets & Tariff Whiplash Stocks closed higher for the second straight session, shaking off yet another round of confusing signals from the White House on tariffs. Dow Jones: +0.8% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.8% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.6% Markets initially surged after Customs and Border Protection released guidance suggesting some tech imports (e.g., smartphones, PCs, chips) might be exempt from the harshest reciprocal tariffs. But by Sunday, President Trump publicly walked back that optimism, insisting “NOBODY is getting off the hook.” Tech Stocks Lead, But It's a Tentative Rally Electronics names including

April 11, 2025 This Week in Review: Business as Usual... Isn’t Uncertainty rules Markets closed the week higher despite fresh tariff escalations, record inflation expectations, and shaken consumer sentiment. But underneath the rebound lies a powerful theme echoed across earnings calls, data releases, and executive commentary: Nobody knows what comes next — and that’s the new baseline. Banks Beat, But Caution Dominates Earnings Season Kickoff First-quarter results from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BNY Mellon beat expectations. Still, the tone from the C-suite was marked by caution. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick: “We do not know where trade policy will settle nor what the effects will be.” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: “Uncertai

April 10, 2025 What a difference 24 hours can make. Yesterday’s historic market rally, driven by a dramatic tariff pivot from the White House, unraveled quickly today as investors confronted the real issues: policy uncertainty, economic fragility, and the psychological whiplash of market chaos. Markets: When Psychology Drives Price Action WS in the Fog This week’s Story Time Thursday couldn’t be more timely: uncertainty triggers deeply rooted psychological biases that distort investor behavior. We explored three behavioral finance concepts and “hacks” to work around them: Prospect Theory: Investors feel losses ~2x more intensely than gains. Yesterday’s gains felt fleeting; today’s losses feel permanent. The Marshmallow Test: Delayed gratification is hard — especially during high volatility

Market Recap April 9, 2025 A dramatic reversal in U.S. trade policy ignited one of the biggest single-day stock market rallies in history, halting a fast-moving financial panic and reawakening investor risk appetite. While risks remain elevated, the Trump administration’s retreat from maximalist tariffs has—at least temporarily—eased fears of a policy-induced recession. Historic bounce Markets: Earnings Reality Check Amid Repricing Surge Despite the sharp bounce, valuation concerns remain front and center: The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trades at 20.2x 2025 Wall Street consensus earnings — a premium multiple that leaves little room for error. For the market to deliver +10% upside from current levels, two conditions must be met: Earnings must remain stabl

Markets remain under pressure as the largest tariff expansion in modern U.S. history continues to ripple through equity, bond, and volatility markets. Unusual cross-asset moves, record-breaking ETF losses, and conflicting policy signals are raising concerns about global stability and recession risk. Tariffs & volatility 🔺 Markets: Disconnect Between Risk Assets and Rates Equities Down, Yields Up: The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down 12% over the last 4 trading days, yet 10-year Treasury yields are up 10 bps. This rare divergence removes a typical counter-cyclical buffer as bond markets fail to reflect recession fears — or are instead pricing in inflationary risks from tariffs. Corporate Spreads Widening, But Not Blowing Out: U.S. corporate bond spr