Markets End the Week on a Positive Note

Major Index Performance (Friday & Weekly Gains): Dow Jones: +0.1% (+1.2% for the week). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.1% (+0.5% for the week) and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.5% (+0.2% for the week)

First positive week after weeks of losses:

S&P & Nasdaq snapped 4-week losing streaks
Dow broke a 2-week skid

1️⃣ Friday Rally: "No News is Good News"

Tech Stocks Rebound:

$Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ Magnificent Seven ETF ( $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, Tesla) jumped. $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$
Tech gained ground as tariff fears faded for a day

Stocks

Volume Still Low:

Lowest-volume trading week of 2024
Without major news, tech stocks bounced—but investors are still in wait-and-see mode ahead of earnings season.

2️⃣ Markets Watching the Fed & Money on the Sidelines

Record-High Money Market Assets:

Investors waiting for real Fed rate cuts before deploying capital.
LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist: Historically, money market assets peak when the Fed aggressively cuts rates. Last three S&P 500 bottoms coincided with these moments (except 1992).

There’s a ton of cash waiting to jump back into markets, but investors want the Fed to cut rates first.

3️⃣ Gold: The Safe Haven of Choice

🥇 Gold hit a record $3,040/oz on Thursday before dipping 0.7% on Friday.

Gold

Best three-week run since April, some strategists see gold hitting $3,500+ in the near term.

4️⃣ Trade War Escalation: France vs. U.S.

France pushes EU to use its most powerful trade weapon:

The Anti-Coercion Instrument could be deployed for the first time ever.
Retaliation for Trump’s new tariff threats (starting April 2).

Many US imports arrive in Europe at the port of Rotterdam

🇺🇸 Trump Administration’s Stance:

Wants to "rectify non-tariff barriers" like VAT taxes and domestic regulations.
EU argues that VAT applies equally to domestic & imported goods.

Global trade tensions are heating up—potentially a key risk for markets next quarter.

5️⃣ Market Outlook: Monday Blues?

Next Week’s Market Catalysts:

Earnings season approaching → Could drive more movement.
Tariff & trade developments → A wildcard for stocks.
Gold as a barometer → If stocks slip, expect another run toward $3,500.

Investors ended the week on a cautious high, but with trade war risks looming, Monday could bring a fresh wave of uncertainty.

All eyes next week will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, report–the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, slated for release on Friday.

Elsewhere on the economic calendar next week is S&P Global’s PMI and the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey on Tuesday, and the durable goods report from the Census Bureau on Wednesday.

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