Market Performance (Thursday): Dow Jones: -11 points (Flat session) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.2% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -0.3% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Intel(INTC)$
Lowest trading volume since January 29 (just 12.6 billion shares exchanged across NYSE & Nasdaq).
1️⃣ Story Time Thursday: Key Themes
Private Equity’s Impact on Small Caps:
-
Over the past 20 years, private equity & venture capital growth has constrained small-cap indices by keeping high-quality, fast-growing companies out of public markets.
VIX as a Buy Signal:
-
The VIX reflects the S&P 500’s volatility-based dividend yield—historically, buying when it’s very high has been profitable.
10-Year Treasury Yields (Inflation-Adjusted):
-
At 2003–2007 levels, signaling low concern about U.S. fiscal deficits.
2️⃣ Data Recap: Labor Market & Consumer Trends
Jobless Claims:
-
223,000 new claims, in line with the post-2022 average of 219,800—signaling no major layoffs despite economic uncertainty.
-
Companies are holding onto workers they struggled to hire post-pandemic.
Gasoline Demand:
-
Flat year-over-year → Suggests cautious consumer behavior, but better than weak sentiment surveys or retail sales data.
3️⃣ Disruption: Big Tech & FedEx Warning
Big Tech Dominance in the S&P 500:
-
8 largest tech stocks (including $Broadcom(AVGO)$ ) = 32.1% of S&P 500, nearly 3x the weight of the next 10 largest non-tech holdings.
-
Analyst sentiment on these names significantly impacts overall market direction.
FedEx Lowers Guidance Again:
FedEx
-
3rd consecutive cut in full-year guidance
-
Cited inflation, weakening consumer demand, & trade uncertainty
-
$FedEx(FDX)$ ’s status as an economic bellwether makes this a worrying signal
4️⃣ Housing Market Surprise
Existing-Home Sales (February): 4.2% MoM increase → 4.26M annualized rate (vs. 3.92M expected). Largest jump in over a year. Surprised even Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors
But caution remains:
-
Pending home sales were weak in January
-
Buyer traffic in February was lower YoY
-
Seasonal distortions might explain the spike
5️⃣ Market Outlook: Cautious Trading Ahead of Earnings Season
-
No panic selling, but hedge funds are quiet
-
Recent bounce may be liquidity-driven rather than fundamental
-
No clear catalyst until earnings season kicks off
With no major economic reports tomorrow, markets may stay in wait-and-see mode until earnings season begins…
If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights. Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.
@TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerCommunity @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerEvents
This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
Comments