Summary: Markets endured a historic two-day plunge as President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff regime shocked global investors. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market, and the S&P 500 saw its largest back-to-back decline since March 2020. Fears of a worldwide recession are mounting as retaliatory moves from China and other key trading partners intensify the economic threat.
Markets
Key Market Moves (Friday):
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$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -5.8% (now >20% off December highs — bear market) $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$
Tech in bear market
Tech
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: 2,231 points - 5.5% (entered correction territory)
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$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : - 6% (worst single-day drop since COVID shock)
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CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): +51% to 45.31
What Happened:
President Trump announced a global tariff framework with sweeping levies ranging from 10% to 50% on imports from nearly all major trading partners — including China, the EU, Japan, and Vietnam. China responded swiftly with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and additional export controls, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade war.
Despite Trump suggesting he’s “open to negotiations,” markets interpreted the measures as excessive and disruptive, especially given their scale and sudden rollout.
Economic Impact:
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JPMorgan now puts U.S. recession odds at 60%, up from 40%.
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Analysts estimate the effective U.S. tariff rate could now exceed 22%, up from the previous 8–9%.
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Tariffs are expected to raise inflation, dampen consumer spending, and pressure corporate earnings.
Even a strong March jobs report (+228,000 jobs) couldn’t reverse market sentiment, as focus shifted fully to tariffs and their broader macro impact.
Notable Trends:
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Oil prices hit a 4-year low as OPEC+ unexpectedly boosted output.
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Copper prices fell below $9,000/ton, signaling demand concerns.
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Bond markets rallied; 10-year Treasury yields fell below 4% as investors fled to safety.
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The U.S. dollar saw sharp volatility but ended Friday up 1% on haven demand.
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Bitcoin rose slightly (+2%), possibly reflecting alternative asset flows.
Investor Outlook:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the tariffs are “larger than expected” and warned of slower growth, higher inflation, and potential upward pressure on unemployment. Markets are now pricing in at least 100bps in rate cuts by year-end, but it’s unclear if monetary easing can fully offset the damage.
Powell
Bottom Line:
The market is signaling deep concern about policy missteps driving the economy toward a downturn. Tariff uncertainty, global retaliation, and falling consumer sentiment have created a volatile, risk-off environment.
Still, some see opportunity. As Mark Malek of Siebert Financial puts it: “For long-term clients who can tolerate the volatility, this is a buying opportunity… Great growth sectors were overpriced — now, they’re on sale.”
Looking Ahead:
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Watch for retaliatory tariffs from other major economies.
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Monitor Fed commentary for signs of a policy shift or emergency rate moves.
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Keep a close eye on consumer data, particularly gasoline demand and retail spending.
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Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term.
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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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