Software Selloff vs. Walmart $1T: Start of the “Software Death Loop”?

Tiger_comments
02-05
Reward Tiger-CoinsReward 500 Tiger-coins

Software Stocks Crash as Walmart Hits $1 Trillion! Is this the biggest market shift of 2025?

The market is showing a brutal split right now:

Software stocks are getting crushed. While $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ just crossed a $1 trillion market cap, up ~14% YTD — outperforming Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon

1) What happened: software names got hit hard

One of the biggest triggers behind this selloff is the market repricing how fast AI could disrupt parts of the software stack.

After new developments around Anthropic’s Claude (and the broader narrative that AI tools can increasingly replace knowledge-work workflows), investors started questioning:

How much of “software value” is truly defensible anymore? Damage report (single day): ~$285B market cap wiped out

Some notable moves:

The market fear is simple:

If AI can do parts of what software does, then what’s the moat?

2) Jensen Huang’s response: AI won’t replace software

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on the most extreme version of the narrative, calling the “AI replaces software” idea illogical.

His point is practical: AI is more like an efficiency layer, not a full replacement. You don’t rebuild Excel from scratch just because AI exists. But the key is:
Only the strongest software categories will survive as “must-haves.”

3) Why Walmart is winning: physical assets + AI = real operational leverage

So why is Walmart suddenly the winner in this narrative?

Not because it’s an “AI company” — but because it owns what AI can’t replace:
physical assets, supply chain scale, and logistics networks.

Some market highlights being discussed:

  • ~60% of warehouses automated with AI

  • ~90% of restocking AI-driven

  • Partnerships with Google & OpenAI

  • Conversion rates reportedly up ~22%

4) “Software death loop”: JPMorgan views BDCs are becoming the credit risk hotspot.

This selloff becomes more dangerous when it shifts from equity panic to a broader credit stress narrative.

JPMorgan’s take is that the selloff in software — and other industries perceived to be exposed to AI disruption — has shown little sign of easing.

More importantly, JPMorgan warns the risk is increasingly migrating from stocks into credit markets, with Business Development Companies (BDCs) turning into a key pressure point.

According to JPMorgan, BDCs hold roughly: $70B in software-related loans, around 16% of their total portfolios

After the sharp software drawdown, these loan-linked assets may become mispriced or “dislocated.”

5) If the paradigm is shifting… how to position?

Discussion: what’s your take? 👇

So what’s really happening here?

Is this just a short-term panic… or a real regime shift?

Do you think this is:

A) the beginning of the end for software stocks, or
B) an overreaction that creates a buying opportunity?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins!

Is Market Rebound a Dead-Cat Bounce or Real Turn?
After last week’s AI-led selloff, US equities staged a $1 trillion rebound, with the S&P 500 posting its best single-day gain since May. Yet confidence remains thin. Implied volatility is still elevated, trading volume ran ~13% below average, and Goldman’s short-bias basket jumped ~9%, hinting the rally was driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction. Investors are struggling to price a murky US outlook while reassessing AI’s winner-takes-all impact, especially on software. Is the rebound a dead cat bounce? Would you add stocks now?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Reward 500 Tiger-coinsDeadline to 02/17 12:33
The originator will select the best recovery and allocate Tiger coins before the reward ends
Reward-post

Comments

  • Shyon
    02-05
    Shyon
    From my perspective, this isn’t “software is dead” — it’s the market aggressively repricing which software actually has a moat. The narrative flipped fast, and crowded positioning made the selloff look brutal. This feels more like fear-driven de-rating than fundamentals suddenly breaking.

    $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ hitting $1 trillion makes sense because AI is amplifying businesses with physical scale and operational complexity. AI turns Walmart’s logistics and supply chain into real profit leverage, while many software companies now have to prove they’re essential, not optional.

    So I lean toward B: this is an overreaction, not the end of software. But the $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ JPMorgan credit warning matters — if stress spreads into BDCs, volatility isn’t done. The opportunity is selective: only software with mission-critical roles and pricing power deserves to bounce.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • koolgal
    02-05
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ recent ascent to USD 1 trillion market capitalisation, proves that in an age of digitalisation, physical scale  is the ultimate superpower.

    No Agentic AI can replicate the sheer physical grit of 5,000 stores or the complex machinery of global fulfilment.

    By using its massive footprint into high velocity AI hubs & a high margin advertising juggernaut, Walmart has successfully shed its old retail skin to become a tech powered titan.

    Walmart isn't just selling groceries anymore.  It is selling an automated hyper efficient future where logistics is the new software.

    While the SaaS sector may tremble, Walmart's trillion dollar milestone is an achievement that the late great Sam Walton, Founder would be proud of.  From a single variety store in 1962 to today's crowning success, this achievement remains rooted in his original Every Day Low Price philosophy.

    @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @TigerStars

  • 1PC
    02-10 21:16
    1PC
    🐯Software Selloff vs Walmart $1T Software stocks saw ~$285B wiped out in a day as AI disruption fears hit valuations. APP, U, PLTR all dropped, while WMT surged past $1T on AI‑driven logistics & physical moats. Jensen Huang insists AI is an efficiency layer, not a replacement.🎯 My view: B — Overreaction. This is short‑term panic. I’m buying the dip in mission‑critical software[Wow]@JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel
  • BTS
    02-09 16:24
    BTS
    The recent market action marks a historic apex, where the real economy begins harvesting AI gains once reserved for tech creators

    With Walmart (WMT) becoming the first traditional retailer to hit a $1 trillion market cap while software stocks crash, the market stands at a crossroad, signaling a pivot where operational AI integration is now valued as highly as software innovation。。。

    Investors now bet that real-world AI users offer more upside than software sellers, fearing that AI-automated coding will erode traditional SaaS pricing power and competitive moats

    While this volatility may be a short-term panic, a regime shift is emerging where high interest rates and persistent inflation favor profitable titans over high-growth software

    Despite the "Software Death Loop" fears, this sell-off creates a buying opportunity for foundational AI leaders like Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), whose platforms provide the essential AI data infrastructure

  • TimothyX
    02-06
    TimothyX
    當這種拋售從股市恐慌轉向更廣泛的恐慌時，它會變得更加危險信用壓力敘事.

    摩根大通的觀點是，軟件和其他被認爲容易受到人工智能顛覆的行業的拋售——幾乎沒有緩和的跡象.

    更重要的是，摩根大通警告稱，風險正越來越多地從股票轉移到信貸市場，與業務發展公司(BDC)變成一個關鍵的壓力點。

    據摩根大通稱，BDC大致持有：$70B軟件相關貸款，圍繞佔其總投資組合的16%

    在軟件大幅縮水後，這些與貸款相關的資產可能會被錯誤定價或“錯位”。

  • TimothyX
    02-06
    TimothyX
    這次拋售背後的最大觸發因素之一是市場重新定價人工智能顛覆部分軟件堆棧的速度。

    在圍繞Anthropic的Claude的新進展（以及人工智能工具可以越來越多地取代知識工作流程的更廣泛敘述）之後，投資者開始質疑：

    有多少“軟件價值”是真正可以辯護的？損失報告（單日）：約$2850億市值被抹去

Leave a comment
35
81