Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a potential change in trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently r

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

The January FOMC minutes (released February 2026) have indeed injected a dose of cold water into the market's "rate cut fever." While the S&P 500 has shown incredible resilience, the shift from a nearly guaranteed June cut to a "divided Fed" suggests a transition from a momentum-driven rally to a data-dependent one. Here is how the S&P 500 is likely to navigate this shift: S&P 500 Reaction: Gains vs. Profit Taking Historically, the S&P 500 can handle a "hawkish pause" as long as economic growth remains solid. However, the minutes revealed that the Fed is now prioritizing stability over speed. The "No Landing" Support: The market is currently buoyed by a "no landing" narrative—where the economy remains strong enough to avoid recession even with higher rates. This has helped

I think that rate cut by June, S&P 500 has room to run, but I don't expect a straight line up. Here's the honest take. Fed fund futures now price nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps cut by mid-year, driven by January CPI dropping to 2.4% — the lowest in nearly five years. That's a meaningful shift in market expectations, and equity markets love that kind of certainty. But history tells us the setup is more nuanced than just "rate cut = stocks go up." Yes, lower rates reduce borrowing costs, expand multiples, and lift risk appetite. Goldman Sachs sees US growth accelerating to 2–2.5% in 2026, and corporate earnings remain resilient — a goldilocks mix of benign inflation, lower rates, and growing profits. CNN That combination historically supports S&P 500 upside. The catch? Three thi

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Yes, the softer January CPI meaningfully raises the probability of rate cuts, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained equity rally. The market reaction depends on why inflation is cooling and what it implies for growth. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but cautiously. January CPI rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are easing. Markets immediately pulled forward easing expectations, with Treasury yields falling and traders increasing bets on Fed cuts later this year.  Key implications: Cooling inflation reduces the Fed’s need to keep policy restrictive. Futures markets now price meaningful probability of cuts beginning around mid-year. Bond markets reacted first: short-term Treasury yields dec

Yes - in market pricing and sentiment. Market pricing (Fed funds futures / option-implied probabilities) has shifted noticeably toward earlier and/or more cuts later this year after CPI came in below expectations: headline inflation at ~2,4% YoY and a weaker monthly print. Traders have increased the odds of a June rate cut, with some pricing in a ~50-80% chance of at least one cut by mid-year.

Nasdaq will drop around 5-10% 🎉🎉🎉

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting below the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a bearish trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently regis

Yes. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  it's the last hooray.  Come on. Buy now and celebrate later

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

This anxiety is spreading from traditional software into the $10 trillion information services market, including finance, real estate, logistics, and law. If $700 billion in annual AI investment starts disrupting these sectors, the consequences are real

The switch from AI-Euphoria to AI-phobia is not new as we have seen the same trick last year while Deep Seek was paraded as the bogeyman. It's the convenient excuse to peg a time to take a pause and lock in the profits when the naive retail investors catches the falling knifes. I believe a new narrative will emerge soon that the tech giants are in-fact already in the game or that the new kids on the block are being acquired under their fold. What can't be solved with their deep pockets? Unless they would like to be another kodiak. I've started accumulating on companies that will still be dominating in immediate future.

Short answer: Yes, softer CPI raises the probability of rate cuts. But whether the S&P 500 extends gains depends less on inflation alone and more on growth, earnings, and positioning. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but not automatically or immediately. January CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.  Markets reacted exactly as theory suggests: Treasury yields fell as traders priced earlier easing.  Futures increased expectations of Fed cuts later this year.  Economists broadly interpret this as giving the Fed “breathing room,” but policymakers still want several months of confirmation before cutting, with many forecasts pointing to a first cut around mid-year (June).  Key nuance: Infla

I don't switch cars for the moment. Just stick with it. I believe in long-term investment. For the next 10years, AI will still of an important part of the future development.

Softer CPI print increases the possibility of rate cuts by providing the Fed  with the flexibility & reassurance needed to shift focus from fighting inflation to supporting labor market. There will be few major factors behind this:  (1) Probability Shift where people have bet for a June cut, with  probabilities as high as 83% to 90% (2) Timing:  a March cut remains highly unlikely due to a still-strong labor market, the disinflation trend keeps this likely for H2 2026 (3) Qquantum of cuts: Markets now price in approximately 63 basis points of total easing for 2026, equivalent to about two to three quarter-point reductions by year-end. (4) how markets react: S&P 500 and other major indices initially rallied on the news, as lower inflation and the prospect of

🌟🌟🌟They say inflation was too "sticky" but with the market now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, it seems the Fed is finally ready to let the "Higher for Longer" narrative hit the dust. What a Fed Rate Cut Means for the Market  Cheaper borrowing costs for companies will lead to higher investment, expansion and earnings growth. Lower discount rates means higher valuation for stocks especially growth and tech. Improved liquidity means more capital flowing into risk assets.  Stronger consumer spending will support corporate revenues.  Weaker US dollar will boost multinational companies' earnings. A rate cut doesn't just ease financial conditions.  It re-energises the entire economic engine. Will the S&P500 Extend Gains on This Optimism? In

The Mag7 Myth Crumbles: Microsoft (MSFT) has officially entered a bear market, down over 25% from its recent high. Amazon (AMZN) followed suit after eight consecutive days of losses. Meta is now teetering on the edge of the bear market threshold.