(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (23Feb2026)-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (23Feb2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Feb2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a potential change in trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.09. This reading indicates that there is more buying momentum than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

Using 18 technical indicators, a “Neutral” outlook is proposed. 13 indicators show a “Buy” rating and 5 show a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index shows a “Fear” rating with a score of 43. This is an improvement from the previous weekly rating of 36 “Fear”.

Weighing the above, I lean towards a “bearish” outlook. There is a potential for a market trend reversal.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

80% Rate Cut By June: Will S&P 500 Extend Gains?

US January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation rising just 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% YoY, the lowest since last May. Core inflation also came in softer than forecast, pushing market pricing for a Fed rate cut before June to 80%. Treasury yields slipped as traders pulled forward easing bets, while equities initially cheered the cooling inflation print. Does softer CPI reflect higher possibility of rate cuts? Will the S&P 500 extend gains on rate-cut optimism?

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