I would rather own the AI sellers than the AI spenders from here. Big Tech is committing enormous capital to AI infrastructure, creating strong demand for chips, memory, networking, power and data centres. The advantage of suppliers is that they can benefit regardless of whether Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft or Amazon ultimately wins the AI platform race. The spenders face a tougher test. Investors increasingly want evidence that huge AI CapEx translates into sustainable revenue, margins and free cash flow. Strong growth alone may no longer justify ever-rising investment. Among the spenders, Alphabet would still be my favourite because its Cloud business provides a clearer path towards AI monetisation. My positioning: AI sellers first, Alphabet second. The key risk is a slowdown in hyperscale

My pick is Apple (AAPL). Rothschild & Co Redburn’s upgrade from Neutral to Buy, with the target jumping from $260 to $400, is one of the more interesting calls this week. The thesis rests on the upcoming premium foldable iPhone and Apple potentially becoming a stronger AI “fast follower”. I would not interpret the broader wave of upgrades as proof that “smart money” is uniformly bullish, though. AI semiconductors are already one of the market’s most crowded trades, so expectations are extremely high. For AAPL, I like the ecosystem, pricing power and potential new product cycle, but at current valuations execution matters. A $400 target becomes credible only if the foldable iPhone expands revenue rather than simply cannibalising existing models, while Apple finally demonstrates meaning

A) Copper & Mining gets my vote, with BHP as the one I would be most comfortable buying. The copper rally still has fundamental support rather than being purely momentum-driven. Electrification, grid investment and AI infrastructure are increasing demand, while supply remains constrained. S&P Global expects data-centre copper demand alone to rise from 1.1m tonnes in 2025 to 2.5m by 2040. I prefer BHP over the more concentrated copper miners because it combines growing copper exposure with diversification. Copper already contributed more than half of BHP's adjusted EBITDA last year, and management expects copper production to rise substantially over the longer term. Valuation is the main concern after the rally, so I would accumulate rather than chase aggressively. Bonus pick: Visa

I would wait for both Nvidia and Jackson Hole to clear rather than add before the print. The issue is no longer whether Nvidia can beat consensus. Current estimates vary by source, roughly around $92bn revenue and $2.09 EPS, and options imply about a 6% post-earnings move. More importantly, Nvidia has fallen after each of its past four earnings reports despite consistently beating expectations.  The long-term case remains compelling. The analyst consensus is still Strong Buy, with the $304.73 mean target implying about 46% upside from Monday's close. But this week combines two separate risks: Nvidia determining whether AI spending expectations remain credible, then Warsh potentially moving long-term yields at Jackson Hole.  I would therefore keep Nvidia rather than sell, but hold

I would wait rather than chase the insider buy. The more important signal has already arrived in the numbers: Alibaba’s cloud and AI-services revenue grew 45%, but quarterly net profit fell 75% as capex surged 75% to RMB67.68bn.  That actually strengthens both sides of the debate. Bulls can point to genuine cloud reacceleration, while bears can argue that Alibaba is effectively buying that growth at a very high near-term cost. The HK$80bn placement adds dilution and raises the hurdle further. Alibaba now needs to demonstrate that AI infrastructure produces attractive incremental returns, not merely faster revenue. Management is targeting roughly a mid-teens return on AI investment over three years.  So I would treat the CEO purchase as a confidence signal, not a buy signal. The m

I would use the pullback to add QQQ gradually, rather than trim broadly. Monday’s weakness was concentrated in tech and semiconductors, while the Dow actually gained, suggesting rotation rather than a full risk-off break.  The catch is timing. Nvidia reports Wednesday and remains a major sentiment test for the entire AI complex, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut comes Friday amid unusually high sensitivity to long-end Treasury yields. That makes an all-in QQQ purchase before Wednesday unnecessarily binary. My approach: add perhaps one-third now, keep another third for a post-Nvidia sell-off, and the remainder until after Jackson Hole. I would not sell Meta or Alphabet simply to avoid this week’s volatility. If Nvidia delivers strong guidance and long yields stabilise, QQQ could rebound

Market watch: AI, Alibaba and Fed risk Today’s big theme is risk management before Nvidia earnings. Asian markets are subdued, while oil remains elevated as investors await further Iran-related developments. Nvidia is the key event this week, with the market expecting around US$92bn quarterly revenue, so any guidance surprise could move the entire AI complex. Alibaba is the standout mover: its HK$80bn share placement to fund AI triggered a sharp sell-off, with shares falling as much as 10%. The long-term AI investment story remains interesting, but dilution and the huge capex burden make this a “wait for stabilisation” trade rather than blindly buying the dip. Stocks on my watchlist: NVDA, MRVL, MU, BABA and TCEHY. My trading plan: I would not chase AI stocks ahead of Nvidia. Instead, keep

Hong Kong Stocks: What I’m Watching Today, my focus is on four hot themes: AI/technology, Internet stocks, robotics and new-energy vehicles. AI & Internet: Alibaba (9988), Tencent (0700) and Xiaomi (1810) remain on my radar. AI spending, cloud growth and improving sentiment towards Chinese tech could provide further catalysts. Robotics: Humanoid robots remain one of the hottest themes. I’m watching UBTECH (9880) and the wider supply chain, but after the recent sharp rallies, I would rather wait for a pullback than chase. EVs: BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), Li Auto (2015) and NIO (9866) are worth monitoring. I prefer companies with strong technology, scale and improving profitability. New IPOs: Hot new listings can offer momentum opportunities, but the risk of first-day overvaluation is hig

Nvidia, Fed and AI: My Trading Plan for the Week The market has a big week ahead. Nvidia reports on 26 August, while the Jackson Hole symposium starts shortly after. Both could determine whether the recent AI-led rally resumes or faces another leg down. My main watchlist is $NVDA, $MU, $AVGO and $AMD. Nvidia is the key event because expectations are extremely high, with analysts looking for roughly US$92bn revenue. I would not chase NVDA before earnings. A strong guide could lift the whole AI semiconductor complex, while a disappointment could create a much better entry point. $MU is particularly interesting to me because rising AI server demand is driving strong memory requirements. Nvidia's reported price increases for AI servers, partly reflecting soaring memory costs, reinforce this th

I would watch margins next quarter, while giving Alibaba a modest cloud re-rating. The bullish case is real: Cloud and Compute grew 45%, its strongest growth in 22 quarters, while cloud adjusted EBITA jumped 133% and margin expanded to about 12%. AI product revenue has also delivered triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters.  But I would not fully re-rate BABA on cloud growth yet. The problem is capital intensity. Capex rose 75% to RMB67.7bn, while GAAP net profit fell roughly 75%. Management is effectively exchanging near-term earnings and free cash flow for future AI capacity.  The crucial question is therefore not whether AI demand exists. It clearly does. It is whether cloud revenue and margins can grow faster than AI infrastructure spending. My hierarchy: 1. Cloud gro

I would wait for Warsh’s tone, while keeping a core long-tech position rather than rotating aggressively into rate-sensitive assets yet. The key signal is that Treasury’s intervention only produced a temporary rally. The long end quickly returned to concerns over deficits, inflation and term premium. The 30-year yield has been around multi-decade highs, while the 10-year has remained near 4.7%.  My positioning: Core: Stay long quality tech. AI earnings and structural capex remain powerful, although high long-term yields are the main valuation risk. Nvidia earnings on 26 August could provide another catalyst.  Do not chase rate-sensitive assets yet. Banks, REITs, small caps and long-duration bonds could rally sharply if Warsh signals easier policy, but they could suffer if he emph

My pick: GOOG > PYPL > CRWD > PLTR. GOOG has the strongest risk/reward, combining Search cash flow, Cloud growth and major AI optionality through Gemini and infrastructure. AI may threaten Search, but Alphabet also controls much of the ecosystem needed to monetise AI. PYPL is the contrarian value play. If checkout stabilises and margins improve, upside could be meaningful, though it remains a turnaround. CRWD remains a great business, but valuation leaves less room for error. PLTR has phenomenal growth, but its valuation already prices in exceptional execution. I agree with the downgrade tactically, not necessarily fundamentally. My move: buy GOOG, consider PYPL, and wait for better entry points on CRWD/PLTR.

I would buy SK Hynix on weakness, rather than step away from memory. My preference is SK Hynix > Samsung > avoiding the sector. The key distinction is that SK Hynix's payout is not simply management saying, "we have run out of attractive investments". It is explicitly buying and cancelling 40 trillion won of shares, while raising its target to return more than 50% of 2025-27 cumulative FCF. That is a direct reduction in share count and a strong signal management believes the stock is undervalued.  Samsung is potentially even more interesting as a value + dividend play, but the >100 trillion won figure remains a media report awaiting board approval. The reported plan would allocate 50% of FCF to shareholders, with dividends expected to dominate.  I don't see the payouts a

I would wait for Warsh’s Jackson Hole tone before rotating aggressively back into tech. The Treasury intervention is meaningful, but I would not interpret it as a durable reversal in long-term yields. The 30-year yield had reached about 5.34%, its highest since 2007, before Treasury announced it would at least double long-duration buybacks to $4bn per operation.  The bigger issue is the Fed. July's minutes were more hawkish than the headline "hold" suggests: three officials wanted a 25bp hike, several saw inflation as broad-based, and there was no meaningful discussion supporting a cut. Markets are even assigning better-than-even odds to a hike by October or December.  So my positioning would be: Tech: cautiously add, not chase. Lower yields provide exactly the relief that high-d

I would not chase Moderna at $174.38. I would rank the three choices: 1. Merck: best risk/reward 2. Wait for full data: best disciplined approach 3. Moderna: highest upside, but highest valuation risk The Phase 3 result is genuinely important. INTerpath-001 hit both recurrence-free survival and distant-metastasis-free survival, validating the personalised neoantigen approach in a pivotal trial.  But Moderna has already repriced the success very aggressively. The market is now capitalising not merely the melanoma indication, but the possibility that this becomes a platform across multiple solid tumours. That is where I would be cautious. Full hazard ratios, subgroup consistency, overall survival, durability, manufacturing economics and regulatory details are still needed. Reuters speci

If I had to pick one piece of the AI infrastructure stack for the next six months, I would choose memory/storage, with Micron (MU) as my preferred exposure. AI is increasingly becoming a data-movement problem, not just a compute problem. HBM demand remains strong, while AI servers are also driving significant demand for high-performance SSDs and NAND. Tight supply and improving pricing could provide additional operating leverage. Micron is particularly interesting because it has exposure across HBM4, conventional server DRAM and enterprise SSDs, giving it multiple ways to benefit as AI infrastructure scales. Power could ultimately become the biggest bottleneck, but power-generation and grid projects generally have longer lead times. Chips remain attractive, but valuations and expectations

If I had to choose one for the next 2–3 years, I would pick Marvell (MRVL). The key distinction is that CPO is not simply an “optics boom”. It changes where the value accrues. 1. Marvell: best overall CPO exposure Marvell is positioned across the interconnect stack rather than relying solely on optical modules. Its Celestial AI acquisition gives it Photonic Fabric for scale-up CPO, with management targeting a US$500m annualised run-rate by FY2028 Q4 and US$1bn by FY2029 Q4.  That is potentially a much larger incremental opportunity than merely selling more transceivers. 2. AXT: my second choice, but potentially the biggest near-term torque AXT is becoming a critical upstream bottleneck. Q2 InP revenue hit a record US$30.7m, versus US$13.6m in Q1, driven by AI optical demand.  The

I would pick A. Micron for the next three years. Nvidia remains the strongest AI leader, but expectations and valuation are already extremely high. Micron offers a different way to capture the AI boom, particularly through HBM and high-end memory. AI workloads are becoming increasingly memory-intensive, creating potentially structural demand for faster, higher-capacity memory. The biggest attraction is the possibility that AI demand keeps memory supply tight for longer, allowing Micron to sustain unusually strong pricing and margins. If that happens, earnings growth could significantly outpace the broader market. Berkshire is the safer choice, with diversified businesses, strong cash flow and a huge liquidity cushion. It would probably be my pick if capital preservation were the priority.

Of the four, I would choose Micron for the best risk-adjusted exposure, although SanDisk has the most explosive upside. My ranking: Micron > SK Hynix > SanDisk > Western Digital. Micron: My preferred balance of HBM/DRAM exposure, AI demand and valuation. Druckenmiller's Q2 exit is worth noting, but I would not treat one fund manager's portfolio decision as a fundamental signal.  SK Hynix: Probably the strongest pure HBM beneficiary, but you are paying for that leadership. It is less directly exposed to the SanDisk/NAND thesis. SanDisk: Highest upside, highest risk. The Investor Day genuinely changes the story: eight NBM agreements covering roughly half of FY27 and two-thirds of FY28 capacity provide unusually strong demand visibility. Management is targeting mid-to-high-teens

Alibaba is the print I would be watching most closely. Tencent has just demonstrated the key dilemma for Chinese tech: AI can accelerate revenue, but the infrastructure bill can arrive much faster. Tencent's Q2 capex surged 176% to RMB52.8bn and FCF turned negative, despite revenue rising 11%.  That makes Alibaba's AI Cloud economics particularly important. I want to see whether cloud growth is accelerating enough to justify the enormous AI investment, rather than simply seeing another strong revenue number. If Alibaba can demonstrate strong AI-related cloud demand while keeping margins and cash generation reasonably controlled, it could differentiate itself from Tencent's more capital-intensive trajectory. My ranking: 1. Alibaba: Most important. AI Cloud growth versus capex and FCF i