Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026)
China Market Holiday
China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies.
CB Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy.
Initial Jobless Claims
Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitored as it provides a snapshot of the employment situation and trends in the labour market.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January is scheduled to be announced, with a forecasted increase of 0.3%. The PPI measures inflation affecting producers and can serve as an early indicator of inflation that may eventually impact consumers.
Chicago PMI
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February will also be released. The previous value indicated expansion at 54.0, suggesting a positive outlook for manufacturing activity in the region.
Crude Oil Inventories
Crude oil inventory data will be published in the coming week. This information is often viewed as an indicator of producer expectations regarding future market demand.
Political Events
President Trump is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. His remarks have the potential to significantly influence the market, particularly in light of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including those concerning Iran, and the escalation of the U.S. military presence in the region.
Ramadan is a time when we stand with our Muslim friends as they choose fasting, prayer, and charity to foster spiritual growth, self-discipline, and empathy.
Earnings Calendar (23Feb2026) - Salesforce
Several notable companies are expected to release their earnings reports in the coming week. Among the companies of interest are AMC, Home Depot, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Baidu, and Dell. These earnings announcements are closely watched by investors and analysts, as they offer insight into each company’s financial performance and market outlook.
Salesforce: AI and Market Disruption
Focusing on Salesforce, the ongoing AI revolution is anticipated to generate substantial value within the business sector. This technological advancement is expected to cause significant disruptions for companies such as Salesforce, SAP, and Monday, reshaping how they operate and compete in the marketplace.
Over the past year, the company’s stock price has experienced a significant decline, falling by approximately 40%. According to technical analysis, the stock currently holds a “strong sell” rating, indicating negative momentum from a technical perspective. In contrast, analyst sentiment remains optimistic, with a consensus “Buy” rating. The average target price is set at $317.21, suggesting a potential upside of more than 71.32% from current levels.
Recent Financial Performance
Examining the company’s financial results over recent years reveals steady growth. For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2022, total annual revenue reached $26.4 billion. This figure has since increased, with the trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue standing at $40.3 billion, reflecting strong top-line growth.
The company’s gross profit also improved, rising from $19.4 billion for the year ending January 31, 2022, to $31.3 billion in the TTM period. Net income grew substantially as well, increasing from $1.4 billion to $7.2 billion over the same period, demonstrating profitability growth over the last five years.
Earnings Per Share Growth
Basic earnings per share (EPS) have shown notable improvement, rising from $1.51 to $7.55 in the TTM period. This growth in EPS further highlights the company’s healthy profitability trajectory.
Overall, the company’s profitability growth appears strong and sustainable, as reflected in its improving financial metrics.
Salesforce has been receiving updates on the stock price target in recent news.
For the upcoming earnings, the forecasts are $3.05 and $11.18 billion for EPS and revenue, respectively.
The market is expecting the revenue and profitability to improve from the last quarter.
Salesforce is expected to perform well. Will they do well with the AI onslaught?
Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Feb2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.
Moving Averages
The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a potential change in trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.09. This reading indicates that there is more buying momentum than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.
More Technical Analysis
Using 18 technical indicators, a “Neutral” outlook is proposed. 13 indicators show a “Buy” rating and 5 show a “Sell” rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The Fear & Greed Index shows a “Fear” rating with a score of 43. This is an improvement from the previous weekly rating of 36 “Fear”.
Weighing the above, I lean towards a “bearish” outlook. There is a potential for a market trend reversal.
News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026)
The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months. In case of a strike on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, leading to massive oil supply disruption and a sharp rise in global oil prices. - X user Defense Intelligence
Battleships ruled the waters during World War 1. Aircraft carriers ruled the waters during World War 2. Will there be a new naval king in the coming conflict? Will aircraft carriers reign supreme? Or will there be other contenders like drones, energy weapons, and hypersonic missiles?
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Corporate insiders continue selling at RECORD pace. Insider sell/buy ratio: 4.8. This is the 2nd highest reading since 2020. Only matched in Feb 2021 (right before the crash). - X user Leshka.eth
Institutional Investors dumped $8.3 Billion worth of stocks last week, their 2nd largest weekly sale ever recorded - BarChart
47% of Americans surveryed said they had withdrawn money from retirement accounts due to inflation, per Allianz. - X user Unusual Whales
The Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, rejecting his use of emergency powers to impose trade duties. - X user Walter Bloomberg
Nvidia and OpenAI abandon unfinished $100bn deal in favour of $30bn deal — FT
The US economy is now reliant on older Americans like never before. Americans aged 55+ now represent 45.3% of all US consumer spending, the highest in at least 28 years. This is nearly DOUBLE the ~28.0% seen in the early 2000s. By comparison, those aged 54 and younger are down to just 54.7%, from ~72.0% in 2000. The gap between the two groups has narrowed by ~35 percentage points over the last 25 years and is on track to converge for the first time in history. This comes as 73.7% of all US wealth is held by those over 55, up from 56.2% in 2000, according to Fed data. The US wealth divide is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager with $307.5 billion in AUM. - X user Crypto Rover
Fed Reserve just pumped $18.5 Billion into the U.S. Banking System this week through overnight repos. This is the 4th largest liquidity injection since Covid and surpasses even the peak of the Dot Com Bubble. Probably Fine, carry on - BarChart
EX-GOOGLE CEO WARNS OF POWER SHORTAGE. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt says AI is driving a massive electricity crunch: “We’re running out of electricity… we need 92 gigawatts more power. The average nuclear plant is 1.5 gigawatts, you see the problem.” - X user Coin Bureau
Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says we need 92 gigawatts more power because AI is consuming 'way too much' electricity.
US MARGIN DEBT IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH: US MARGIN DEBT AS A SHARE OF REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME HAS EXCEEDED 6.0% FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, ACCORDING TO REAL INVESTMENT ADVICE ANALYSIS. - First Squawk
My Investing Muse
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
NEW GRADUATES NOW ACCOUNT FOR JUST 7% OF NEW HIRES AT BIG TECH COMPANIES, DOWN FROM 25% IN 2023 AND OVER 50% PRE-PANDEMIC, PER FORBES.
CREDIT CARD DEBT IS BECOMING A GROWING FINANCIAL RISK. MORE THAN 12% OF BALANCES ARE 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT — THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 15 YEARS — WHILE AVERAGE INTEREST RATES ARE AROUND 21%. - First Squawk
Walgreens to lay off hundreds of employees nationwide - MacroEdge
America’s biggest wine maker shuts down production in Napa Valley in huge blow to wine heartland - California Post
United Parcel Service (UPS) is planning to close dozens of packaging facilities this year, the shipping giant revealed in a court filing this week. - MacroEdge
The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a record 6.9%. Serious delinquency rates have more than DOUBLED since 2021. This exceeds the 1996 peak by 0.9 percentage points. For context, the 2008 Financial Crisis high was 5.0%. Meanwhile, total auto debt is up +$312 billion over the last 5 years, to a record $1.67 trillion, driven by surging vehicle prices. Subprime financing makes up ~14%, or $234 billion, of all auto loans. Americans are falling behind on their car debt at a record pace. - X user the Kobeissi Letter
UPS announced the closure of 22 package centers eliminating 30,000 jobs as part of restructuring, following ~50k job cuts last year. They also outsourced their pension to Goldman and killed a great team and are now getting hosed on fees - X user The Long View
1 in 4 unemployed people, or 1.8 million Americans, have been job searching for over half a year, per CNBC
Ford's $5.8 billion battery plant in Glendale, Kentucky is sitting idle just four months after opening, with 1,600 workers laid off. The facility was designed to produce EV batteries but Ford is pivoting to energy storage systems for utilities and data centers instead. - X user Hedgie
A record 331,000 men in the US are now working two full-time jobs — double the average seen during 2011–2016. - First Squawk
Los Angeles Unified School District to cut up to 3,200 jobs amid budget crisis - MacroEdge
Over 52% of college graduates are now underemployed -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
My Final Thoughts
Based on 2025-2026 trends, rising subprime auto delinquencies likely hit Automotive: Lower new car sales, flooded used market from repos, pressure on makers and suppliers. Financial: Losses for banks and auto lenders, tighter credit. Consumer discretionary: Reduced spending by strained borrowers. Broader ripple to jobs and economy. - Grok
Recent reports indicate a rise in delinquencies, contributing to heightened market volatility, particularly in light of the impending military conflict with Iran. There is on-going debate regarding the necessity of U.S. involvement, with greater concerns centred on potential retaliation and broader consequences. Risks extend beyond the immediate conflict zone, posing threats to both domestic and international American businesses and raising the possibility of increased terrorist activity.
Blue Owl currently manages assets totalling $307 billion. It is prudent to closely monitor the private equity, private capital, and venture capital markets, given persistent concerns about delinquencies and leverage, which may result in significant market distress.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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