(Part 3 of 5) outlook of S&P500 for week starting 16Feb2026

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Feb2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting below the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a bearish trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at -0.02. This reading indicates that there is more selling pressure than buying, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

From the daily interval technical analysis, a “Strong Sell” rating is recommended. For the 5 indicators that recommend a “Buy” rating, 16 indicators show a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The latest rating (36) shows a dominant “Fear” sentiment in the market.

From the above, there could be a “breakout” coming for the Fear/Greed index.

Given the above data, I am leaning towards a “Bearish” outlook for the coming week.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

80% Rate Cut By June: Will S&P 500 Extend Gains?

US January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation rising just 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% YoY, the lowest since last May. Core inflation also came in softer than forecast, pushing market pricing for a Fed rate cut before June to 80%. Treasury yields slipped as traders pulled forward easing bets, while equities initially cheered the cooling inflation print. Does softer CPI reflect higher possibility of rate cuts? Will the S&P 500 extend gains on rate-cut optimism?

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