Subramanyan
02-15

Softer CPI print increases the possibility of rate cuts by providing the Fed  with the flexibility & reassurance needed to shift focus from fighting inflation to supporting labor market. There will be few major factors behind this:  (1) Probability Shift where people have bet for a June cut, with  probabilities as high as 83% to 90% (2) Timing:  a March cut remains highly unlikely due to a still-strong labor market, the disinflation trend keeps this likely for H2 2026 (3) Qquantum of cuts: Markets now price in approximately 63 basis points of total easing for 2026, equivalent to about two to three quarter-point reductions by year-end. (4) how markets react: S&P 500 and other major indices initially rallied on the news, as lower inflation and the prospect of cheaper borrowing costs are generally bullish for equities (5) Sector Performance: The cooling print particularly supports interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as Real Estate (REITs) and Small Caps, while cyclicals continue to find favour (6) Sustained Gains: combo  of moderating inflation and a robust labor market (the "soft landing" narrative) supports further stock market growth in 2026. (7) Risks: Sticky service inflation (which rose 0.4% MoM) and firming core inflation could still prompt a cautious, slower-than-hoped response from the Fed, which might temper extended gains. 

80% Rate Cut By June: Will S&P 500 Extend Gains?
US January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation rising just 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% YoY, the lowest since last May. Core inflation also came in softer than forecast, pushing market pricing for a Fed rate cut before June to 80%. Treasury yields slipped as traders pulled forward easing bets, while equities initially cheered the cooling inflation print. Does softer CPI reflect higher possibility of rate cuts? Will the S&P 500 extend gains on rate-cut optimism?
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