Lanceljx
02-07
AI capex is now non-optional, but monetisation will not be evenly shared.

Most bullish post-earnings.
Microsoft stands out. It has the clearest monetisation flywheel: Azure usage, Copilot attach rates, and pricing power embedded in existing enterprise spend. Heavy capex, but returns are visible and recurring.

Structural winner.
NVIDIA remains the toll collector. Even as growth normalises, its ecosystem ensures it captures value regardless of which hyperscaler wins share.

Amazon.
Strategically sound, tactically messy. Amazon is investing for unit economics control, but monetisation lags capex. Prefer on pullbacks, not strength.

Apple at current levels.
Apple is a hold, not a bottom-fish. Strong balance sheet and buybacks limit downside, but AI monetisation remains indirect.

Bottom line.
AI spend is unavoidable, but software platforms with pricing power monetise first. Bottom-fishing only works where earnings visibility is improving, not where capex is outrunning demand clarity.

Google $20B Debt! 100-Year Bond? AI Bubble or AI Acceleration?
Alphabet is escalating the AI arms race with an $185 billion capex plan, funding it through an unprecedented global borrowing spree. After a $20B USD bond deal that drew over $100B in orders, Google has moved into CHF bonds for the first time and even launched a 100-year GBP bond—a rarity for tech firms.
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