Coinbase Global (COIN) Face "Gut Check" For Its Earnings Release

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 12, 2026, after the market close.

Coming off a year of shifting market dynamics, this report is seen as a "gut check" for the stock, which has faced significant downward pressure over the last month. Investors are increasingly looking past volatile trading fees toward the company's "everything exchange" evolution.

Earnings Estimates & Expectations

Wall Street has become increasingly cautious leading into this print, with the consensus EPS estimate revised downward by roughly 6% in the last 30 days.

Coinbase reported its fiscal Q3 2025 results on October 30, 2025. It was a standout quarter that showcased the company's aggressive "Everything Exchange" expansion and its ability to beat expectations even as the broader crypto market faced intermittent volatility.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

Coinbase posted a significant "beat and raise" performance, largely driven by its institutional segment and the successful integration of key acquisitions.

• Total Revenue: $1.9 Billion, up 55% year-over-year (surpassing consensus of $1.75B).

• Net Income: $433 Million (EPS of $1.44), which beat analyst estimates by nearly 40%.

• Total Trading Volume: $295 Billion. While retail volume grew 37%, institutional volume exploded, particularly in derivatives.

• Subscription & Services Revenue: Reached $747 Million, hitting an all-time high. This was bolstered by $15 billion in average USDC held on the platform.

The Lesson Learnt from Q3 Guidance

While the numbers were strong, the Q4 guidance and management’s commentary offered a vital lesson for investors: Revenue diversification is no longer a "future goal"—it is the current survival strategy.

1. The "Derivatives Flywheel" is Now Material

The biggest takeaway was the impact of the Deribit acquisition (closed in August 2025). In just six weeks of ownership, Deribit contributed $52 million in revenue. Management signaled that Q4 would be the first full quarter of integration, shifting Coinbase from a "spot-only" exchange to a global derivatives powerhouse.

Lesson: Investors must now track notional derivatives volume as closely as spot volume to value the stock.

2. Operating Leverage vs. Growth Reinvestment

Management guided for higher expenses in Q4 ($925M–$975M) due to headcount growth and acquisition costs. However, they promised a "digestion period" in early 2026 where expense growth would slow.

Lesson: Coinbase is willing to sacrifice short-term margin (higher spending) to capture market share in new categories like "Base" (their Layer 2 network) and prediction markets.

3. Macro-Sensitivity of "Stable" Income

Management noted that despite the growth in USDC market cap, interest rate cuts would likely act as a headwind for Subscription & Services revenue in Q4 and beyond.

Lesson: "Subscription revenue" isn't purely organic growth; it is highly sensitive to the Fed's terminal rate. As rates fall, Coinbase must grow its USDC balances significantly just to keep revenue flat.

4. The "Long-Tail" Strategy

By integrating DEX (Decentralized Exchange) functionality directly into the app, Coinbase expanded its tradable assets from 300 to over 40,000.

Lesson: Coinbase is pivoting to become a "search engine" for tokens, capturing fees on high-velocity, small-cap assets that they previously couldn't list due to regulatory or technical constraints.

Key Metrics to Watch

1. Subscription & Services Revenue: This is the most critical "quality of earnings" metric. While transaction fees are unpredictable, this segment (USDC stablecoin interest, staking rewards, and Coinbase One) now accounts for nearly 40% of total revenue. Watch if stablecoin revenue hits the projected $366 million mark.

2. Institutional vs. Consumer Mix: Retail (Consumer) remains the high-margin breadwinner, but institutional volume is the scale play. Following the Deribit acquisition in late 2025, look for signs of successful integration and whether derivatives trading is starting to meaningfully offset the spot trading slump.

3. The "Base" Network Momentum: Growth in Coinbase’s Layer-2 network, Base, is a wildcard. Investors will look for developer activity and its contribution to "Other Transaction Revenue," which grew 26% last quarter.

4. Operating Expenses: Coinbase has been aggressive about cost control. Guidance for tech and administrative expenses is $925M–$975M. A beat here (lower spending) could protect the bottom line even if revenue misses.

Coinbase Global (COIN) Price Target

Based on 31 analysts from Tiger Broker app offering 12 month price targets for Coinbase Global in the last 3 months. The average price target is $330.11 with a high forecast of $440.00 and a low forecast of $190.00. The average price target represents a 103.13% change from the last price of $162.51.

Trading the Earnings: Short-Term Opportunities

Trading COIN post-earnings is historically a high-volatility event. Here’s the setup for the days following February 12:

• The "Double Miss" Risk (Bearish Case): The stock carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and a negative Earnings ESP. If the weak crypto market in late 2025 led to a miss in both trading volume and subscription growth, the stock could test critical support levels (historically around the $263 range).

• The Guidance "Pivot" (Bullish Case): Even if Q4 numbers are soft, the stock may rally if management provides strong Q1 2026 guidance based on a crypto market rebound or a faster-than-expected derivatives rollout.

• Implied Volatility (IV): COIN options typically price in a massive move (often 8–12%) for earnings. Traders often look at "straddles" to play the volatility itself rather than the direction, though the high premiums make this a risky "all-or-nothing" play.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) had 30-Day Implied Volatility (Mean) of 0.7389 for 2026-02-09.

Peer Correction: While it's tempting to focus solely on Bitcoin's price as a proxy for COIN, remember that stablecoin market cap and interest rates are now equally important. A drop in Bitcoin might be bad for sentiment, but high interest rates actually help Coinbase's USDC revenue.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Looking at how COIN share price have significantly declined when Bitcoin saw its biggest descent to $60K, though it has rebound but still hovering around $68K to $70K.

So would it be a good time to look at COIN now, as there have been some report of inflows of funds into Bitcoin, but the volume might not be strong enough to trigger a greater upside movement.

One thing we can look at is COIN need to trade above the 50-day period and with RSI momentum moving once again into the positive territory.

Summary

Coinbase Global (COIN) is set to report its Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Following a volatile end to 2025, this report is a critical test of whether the company’s "Everything Exchange" strategy can offset a cooling crypto market.

Financial Expectations & Sentiment

Wall Street has turned cautious, with analysts revising EPS estimates downward by 6% over the last 30 days.

• EPS Estimate: ~$1.15 (a steep 66% YoY decline).

• Revenue Estimate: ~$1.85–$1.90 Billion (an 18.8% YoY drop).

• The "Whisper" Number: Internal tracking suggests a potential miss, with some analysts modeling EPS as low as $0.79 due to lower crypto prices and compressed staking yields in late Q4.

Key Analysis Takeaways

1. Transaction Revenue Slump: Estimates for transaction revenue are pegged at $1.03B (-33.5% YoY). Despite Bitcoin hitting highs near $126K in October, trading activity thinned out in November and December, particularly among high-margin retail (consumer) users.

2. The Derivatives Dark Horse: This is the first full quarter featuring Deribit integration. While spot volumes are struggling, institutional derivatives revenue is expected to grow ~52% QoQ, acting as a vital cushion against retail weakness.

3. Subscription & Services Resilience: Expected to land between $710M–$790M. While Fed rate cuts are squeezing yields on USDC reserves, growth in the Coinbase One subscriber base and higher average USDC balances on-platform are expected to keep this segment stable.

4. Operational Spending: Management guided for higher expenses ($925M–$975M) due to the Deribit/Echo acquisitions and increased headcount. Investors will be looking for a "peak spending" signal, hoping for leaner guidance in 2026.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

The market is pricing in an implied move of roughly 8% to 12% ($21–$25 per share).

• Bearish Trigger: A "double miss" on both retail volume and subscription revenue could send the stock to support near $240–$260.

• Bullish Trigger: If management highlights successful derivatives scaling or provides aggressive 2026 guidance, the stock could target the $350 December highs.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think COIN could see a greater earnings improvement last Q4 as investors came onboard to acquire crypto.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.