1. What matters most this quar-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1. What matters most this quarter?

With revenue expected at $1.77B and transaction revenue softening, focus shifts to quality rather than headline growth.

Key areas:

Subscription and services stability at ~$723M

USDC yield contribution

Derivatives traction

Operating expense discipline

If recurring revenue mix rises further, valuation becomes less tied to spot volatility.

2. Does Bitcoin’s pullback help or hurt?

At ~$69K, Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp unwind. If leverage has indeed flushed out and large holders are accumulating, volatility may compress before the next directional move.

For Coinbase, two scenarios:

Bull case

Stabilising BTC plus ETF flows revive retail and institutional activity into Q2.

Bear case

Muted volatility suppresses trading volumes despite price stability.

The structural question is whether 2025 marks Coinbase’s transition from cyclical exchange to diversified crypto infrastructure platform. If recurring revenue exceeds 45 to 50 percent sustainably, multiple expansion becomes more defensible even in range-bound crypto conditions.

Coinbase Earnings: Is BTC Hitting Bottom?

Coinbase is set to report Q4 results on Feb. 12, with revenue expected at $1.77B (-5% QoQ) as weaker trading volumes offset derivatives and USDC growth. Transaction revenue may fall to $978M (-6%), while subscription and services stay resilient at $723M. Full-year 2025 revenue is projected around $7.2B, highlighting diversification beyond spot trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovers near $69K, down sharply from highs. Analysts at Compass Point and Cantor see signs of a potential bottom as leverage flushes out and “whales” accumulate.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

EdwardHughes
19:45
EdwardHughes
Spot on about recurring revenue reducing volatility risks. If subs hold up, Coinbase's multiple could expand nicely. [看涨]

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What matters most this quarter?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>With revenue expected at $1.77B and transaction revenue softening, focus shifts to quality rather than headline growth.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Key areas:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Subscription and services stability at ~$723M</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>USDC yield contribution</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Derivatives traction</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Operating expense discipline</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>If recurring revenue mix rises further, valuation becomes less tied to spot volatility.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. Does Bitcoin’s pullback help or hurt?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>At ~$69K, Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp unwind. 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What matters most this quarter?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>With revenue expected at $1.77B and transaction revenue softening, focus shifts to quality rather than headline growth.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Key areas:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Subscription and services stability at ~$723M</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>USDC yield contribution</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Derivatives traction</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Operating expense discipline</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>If recurring revenue mix rises further, valuation becomes less tied to spot volatility.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. Does Bitcoin’s pullback help or hurt?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>At ~$69K, Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp unwind. If leverage has indeed flushed out and large holders are accumulating, volatility may compress before the next directional move.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>For Coinbase, two scenarios:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Bull case</p>\n<p>Stabilising BTC plus ETF flows revive retail and institutional activity into Q2.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Bear case</p>\n<p>Muted volatility suppresses trading volumes despite price stability.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>The structural question is whether 2025 marks Coinbase’s transition from cyclical exchange to diversified crypto infrastructure platform. If recurring revenue exceeds 45 to 50 percent sustainably, multiple expansion becomes more defensible even in range-bound crypto conditions.</p></body></html>","text":"1. What matters most this quarter? With revenue expected at $1.77B and transaction revenue softening, focus shifts to quality rather than headline growth. Key areas: Subscription and services stability at ~$723M USDC yield contribution Derivatives traction Operating expense discipline If recurring revenue mix rises further, valuation becomes less tied to spot volatility. 2. Does Bitcoin’s pullback help or hurt? At ~$69K, Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp unwind. If leverage has indeed flushed out and large holders are accumulating, volatility may compress before the next directional move. For Coinbase, two scenarios: Bull case Stabilising BTC plus ETF flows revive retail and institutional activity into Q2. Bear case Muted volatility suppresses trading volumes despite price stability. The structural question is whether 2025 marks Coinbase’s transition from cyclical exchange to diversified crypto infrastructure platform. 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