Last night's non-farm data (NF

Last night's non-farm data (NFP) was a textbook-level "data fight". The White House hinted at the data might be bad, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) threw a new blast figure of 130,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.

On the surface, the US economy is terrifyingly strong, directly sealing the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March. But the devil hides the details: BLS secretly reduced the average monthly new jobs for the whole year of 2025 from 49,000 to a horrendous 15,000. The full-year employment growth in 2025 is still significantly reduced to 0.184 m, far below the original 0.584 m, setting the weakest record since 2003 during non-recession periods!

That is, what we thought of as moderate growth over the past year is actually "on the brink of recession". The market is now facing a "corrected past of extreme weakness" and "a sudden surge of present"

80% Rate Cut By June: Will S&P 500 Extend Gains?

US January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation rising just 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% YoY, the lowest since last May. Core inflation also came in softer than forecast, pushing market pricing for a Fed rate cut before June to 80%. Treasury yields slipped as traders pulled forward easing bets, while equities initially cheered the cooling inflation print. Does softer CPI reflect higher possibility of rate cuts? Will the S&P 500 extend gains on rate-cut optimism?

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