Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Apr2026)
Market Closures
Hong Kong and China will be closed on Monday, April 6, in observance of the Ching Ming festival. Additionally, Hong Kong will remain closed on Tuesday, April 7, for the Easter public holiday.
Key Economic Releases
The ISM non-manufacturing prices for March will be released, with the previous index reporting 63, indicating clear and strong inflationary growth. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 54.8, suggesting continued expansion in the services sector. However, the elevated prices are likely to be passed on to consumers.
Durable goods orders for February are anticipated to decline by 1.0% month over month, offering insight into current consumption trends.
Bond Market Activity
The upcoming 10-year note auction and 30-year bond auction are significant indicators for the market, reflecting the outlook of the bond market. If these auctions attract continued interest, it is expected that more funds may move from equities into bonds, potentially exerting downward pressure on indexes such as the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones.
Monetary Policy Developments
The FOMC meeting minutes will be released in the coming week, providing important guidance for the market regarding future interest rate decisions in 2026. Potential interest rate reductions could stimulate additional consumption.
Inflation Indicators
The most anticipated news in the coming week is the release of the core PCE price index for February. The forecast for the core PCE price index month over month is 0.4%, while year-over-year growth is projected at 3.0%. If inflation remains persistent, the Federal Reserve may need to reconsider planned interest rate cuts to curb inflation, as it faces the challenge of balancing unemployment and inflation with the primary tool at its disposal—interest rates.
In the same week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, with the year-over-year CPI for March forecasted at 3.4%. This marks a notable increase from the previous figure of 2.4%. The rise in inflation is likely to introduce volatility in the market and may decrease the likelihood of forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Other notable macroeconomic news includes the GDP for Q4, with a forecasted growth rate of 0.7%.
Earnings Calendar (06Apr2026)
Let us look at Delta Airlines for this week’s stock analysis.
Valuation Metrics
The company currently has a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.7 and an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $7.72. These figures suggest that, based on its earnings, Delta appears to be an attractive investment opportunity. It will be intriguing to observe how Delta manages the ongoing energy crisis, especially given the expected increases in jet fuel prices in various regions.
The key question is whether consumers will continue to travel or begin to cut back, as rising energy costs contribute to inflationary pressures throughout the business, including the supply chain and overall cost of living.
Analyst Recommendations
Tanika’s analysis recommends a strong buy for Delta’s stock. In addition, general analyst sentiment is also favourable, with a strong buy rating. The target price is set at $79.45, implying a potential upside of 19.01%.
Recent Financial Performance
Looking at Delta’s recent financial figures, the annual revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31st was $29.8 billion in 2021. By 2025, annual total revenue had reached $63.3 billion, doubling since the company’s recovery from COVID.
Gross profit increased significantly, rising from $2.1 billion in 2021 to $12.9 billion in 2025. The best year for gross profit was 2024, with $13.2 billion.
Operating income started with a loss of $2.1 billion in 2021 and concluded in 2025 with a profit of $5.6 billion. The highest operating income was recorded in 2024 at $5.8 billion.
Net income grew from $280 million in 2021 to $5 billion in 2025, representing remarkable growth over five years.
Balance Sheet Trends
Examining the recent balance sheet, total assets increased from $72.4 billion in 2021 to $81.3 billion in 2025. Total liabilities declined from $68.25 billion in 2021 to $60.4 billion in 2025, although there was a slight uptick in liabilities between 2024 and 2025.
Retained earnings improved notably as the company moved from a loss of $148 million in 2021 to $13.3 billion in 2025. Over the past five years, Delta has made consistent efforts to reduce its total debt, starting at $34.6 billion in 2021 and ending at $20.2 billion in 2025.
Delta News
(compiled by Gemini)
In the first quarter of 2026, Delta Air Lines is balancing record-breaking demand with significant macroeconomic headwinds. A primary highlight is the landmark partnership with Amazon to integrate Leo satellite Wi-Fi across 500 aircraft, reinforcing Delta’s leadership in onboard technology.
Financially, the airline raised its Q1 revenue outlook to over $15 billion, driven by a “premium-first” strategy where high-end products now constitute nearly 40% of revenue. However, a 50% spike in oil prices during March added $400 million in unforeseen costs, pressuring margins ahead of their April 8 earnings report.
Operationally, Delta faced recent disruptions at its Atlanta hub due to heavy holiday volume and severe weather. Despite these challenges, the company’s culture remains a strength, securing the No. 9 spot on Fortune’s 100 Best Companies to Work For. Leadership was also restructured, promoting Peter Carter to President to combat rising labour inflation.
My Investing Muse
The EPS and Revenue forecasts are $0.613 and $13.97B, respectively. While Delta seems to be a valued offering, I prefer to monitor the stock for now.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Apr2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has completed a bottom cross-over, and this can be the start of an uptrend.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.27, indicating there is more selling momentum than buying pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has moved below the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bearish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to slope downward for the first time in recent months, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. This development reinforces the view of a weakening short-term outlook.
Exponential Moving Averages
Further confirmation of bearish sentiment comes from the exponential moving average (EMA) lines, which are also trending downward. This reinforces the expectation of continued pressure on the index in the near future.
Other Technical Analysis
The Technical Analysis using the “Daily Interval” shows a “Sell” rating. 5 indicators recommend a “Buy” rating and 12 indicators recommend a “Sell” rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The market sentiment remains in the zone of “Extreme Fear” with a score of 19. While it is an improvement from last week’s score of 15, the market continues to reflect a “fearful” sentiment.
Weekly Outlook
Considering the above, the overall technical picture leans towards a (slightly) bullish outlook for the S&P 500 in the coming week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (06Apr2026)
Hedge funds' net selling of US tech and communication stocks last week was the largest since September 2024 and the 3rd-largest in 5 years. - X user Global Markets Investor
President Trump's "48-hour warning" to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires at 10:05 AM ET on Monday, April 6th. This also happens to be 35 minutes after the US stock market reopens after the 3-day weekend.
"BIG SHORT" INVESTOR MICHAEL BURRY WARNS: US FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMY WILL CRASH. "THE PROBLEM IS TOO BIG TO SAVE."
Poolside’s Project Horizon just lost CoreWeave as anchor tenant and its $2B Nvidia-led funding round at the same time. The deal collapsed after Poolside couldn’t stand up its first GPU cluster to CoreWeave’s timeline. The capital followed the compute provider out the door. Now, Poolside is in talks with Google and others to salvage it. The site is still real. 568 acres, 10GW ceiling, Permian Basin. They just need a new anchor. - X user HyperAICapital
“Stocks do not look cheap to me.” - Warren Buffer (from Robert Ross Instagram post)
Indonesia has announced fuel rations and mandated work from home for civil servants, per AFP.
Egypt will begin curbing some electricity use, including by ordering shops and cafes to close earlier, per Bloomberg.
The Federal Reserve and US regulators have proposed loosening capital requirements for large banks, per the Guardian
My Investing Muse
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
AMAZON JUST EXECUTED 16,000 WORKERS WHILE BURNING $200 BILLION ON AI INFRASTRUCTURE
We are expecting more layoff news to come. Let us monitor and hedge accordingly.
Private Credit - a canary in the Financial coalmine?
The Private Credit sector continues to leak confidence with withdrawal limits and default news. Will this trip up the market? Probably.
Data Centre updates
Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn’t have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. - Bloomberg
Outdated electricity grids are now a “national security risk,” JPMorgan has said.
The promised AI of a multi-billion-dollar AI ecosystem is being questioned following the delay and cancellation of data centre constructions. Will this imply a delay in the energy crunch and a slowing down of AI computation capability?
My Muse
The worst is yet to come ... energy, food, chemicals, supplies, supply chain, chips, data centre, data, connectivity, loss of lives and livelihood, break up of trading blocs and weakening of superpowers.
"In trading, we don't make things happen. We lose the need to act and instead need to develop patience, waiting for the right setup to come to us." - Rande Howell.
The impact of the energy shortage should be felt in stronger ways in the coming days. We can expect it to show up in an increase in fuel costs, transport costs, and product prices. Countries that rely heavily on the Gulf for their energy needs would face more constraints as there is a mad scramble for these resources. Will Europe distance itself from America and lean into BRICS? Let us monitor as we can see some shuffling in trading relationships.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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