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The below article was written on the 3rd of March 2026, but is reproduced here to provide context for my other article that was just released today:
General Observations
Before I share anything, I would like to share some general observations on stock price movement to educate everyone on what tends to happen in the market, based on historical price action. To avoid overwhelming everyone, I will be sharing my observations progressively:
1) Due to the self-fulfilling nature of the market, there is a tendency for stocks to form trend lines over the long term, where movements back into the line are usually bought up. See Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) chart below:
However, in some cases, these trend lines might fail. The longer term the trendline, the greater the implications over the longer term. Look at Trade Desk’s (NASDAQ: TTD) chart:
Another chart which has exhibited this behaviour is Paypal’s (NASDAQ: PYPL) chart, which saw a significant move lower after it broke its long-term trendline:
2) In some cases, short-term trendlines may break down, cumulating in a move back into a longer-term trendline:
IWM’s chart shows the mini green trendline breaking down, resulting in the Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEArca: IWM) retracing back into the blue trendline. These retests of trend could also be in tandem with an imbalance fill, or a retest of prior resistance from above, among other possibilities.
With those little nuggets, let me share briefly my charts for the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY):
I am starting to get concerned about SPY because the tape has shown its hand. This green ascending channel was validated early last month as it touched the channel support for the third time. It finally broke down on the 3rd of March, before making a attempt to reclaim the trendline over the past 2 trading sessions (4th, 5th).
However, as of today’s session (6th), SPY continues to struggle to reclaim the ascending channel. I’ve observed that fake breakdowns and breakouts can happen, but when price action continues to reject lower highs, it tends to be a precursor of a larger move in the same direction.
The blue trendline is interesting as it is an example of a breakdown towards a major channel support, before the bulls managed to reclaim the initial breakdown.
Currently, based on the trend, there is risk of a rollover back into the blue trendline, which could stretch as far as the 609-616 half-yearly imbalance. That would represent an approximately 11% drawdown from the current level of 676.
The adage that “the market always goes up” might not always be true, depending on the timeframe observed.
@TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerEvents @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
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