Probably yes for 2026, but with an important nuance: HBM is not simply “killing” traditional DRAM. It is absorbing wafer starts, engineering effort, and packaging capacity, which tightens conventional DRAM supply and lifts pricing there too. Micron said this year’s DRAM bit supply is constrained by cleanroom limits, long fab lead times, a higher HBM mix, and slower bits-per-wafer gains. TrendForce likewise says suppliers are reallocating capacity toward HBM and server products in 2Q26. 

That is why the market is starting to price a better quality upcycle, not merely a short squeeze in memory prices. Samsung’s blowout Q1 outlook and the sharp move in SK hynix reflect investor belief that AI memory demand is broad enough to support stronger pricing for longer, especially as hyperscalers keep spending on AI infrastructure. 

My read is:

1. HBM will keep crowding out traditional DRAM near term.

The supply chain is still tight, and HBM4 demand is accelerating. Reuters reported Samsung has improved its HBM4 position, while Micron has highlighted sold-out HBM supply and a very large HBM market opportunity through 2028. 

2. But that is not bearish for conventional DRAM.

Because capacity is being redirected, standard DRAM does not need roaring end-demand to rise in price. TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract prices up another 58% to 63% quarter on quarter in 2Q26. 

3. The new cycle can be longer, but not fully steady.

It looks more durable than old PC or handset memory cycles because AI demand is structural. Still, it remains vulnerable to concentrated customers, qualification risk, and bouts of over-exuberance. Even bullish commentary is being met with warnings that parts of the trade may already be extended. 

So the answer is: HBM should continue to crowd out traditional DRAM capacity for now, and that is part of why the whole memory complex is re-rating. The real debate is no longer whether memory is in an upcycle. It is whether the industry can turn AI-driven tightness into a multi-year pricing regime before the next big wave of supply arrives.