Lanceljx
08-20

I would wait for Warsh’s Jackson Hole tone before rotating aggressively back into tech.


The Treasury intervention is meaningful, but I would not interpret it as a durable reversal in long-term yields. The 30-year yield had reached about 5.34%, its highest since 2007, before Treasury announced it would at least double long-duration buybacks to $4bn per operation. 


The bigger issue is the Fed. July's minutes were more hawkish than the headline "hold" suggests: three officials wanted a 25bp hike, several saw inflation as broad-based, and there was no meaningful discussion supporting a cut. Markets are even assigning better-than-even odds to a hike by October or December. 


So my positioning would be:


Tech: cautiously add, not chase. Lower yields provide exactly the relief that high-duration AI/semiconductor valuations need, but if Warsh signals that inflation remains unacceptable, the 30-year can retest 5.3% despite Treasury intervention.


Healthcare: keep holding. It has relative-strength characteristics if rates remain elevated and tech continues consolidating.


Cash: retain some. Jackson Hole could create a sharp repricing either way.


My preferred setup is healthcare + selective tech, rather than a wholesale rotation. If Warsh sounds dovish while long yields stay below ~5.2%, I would become substantially more bullish on Nvidia, semiconductors and other long-duration growth names. If he sounds hawkish, I would rather own healthcare and wait.


**The Treasury just showed there is a pain threshold for yields. Warsh will tell us whether the Fed is willing to defend it.**

PCE In Line, Yet Long-End Yields Hold Firm — What Will Warsh Say Tomorrow Night?
July core PCE ran 3.3% y/y and 0.2% monthly, near expectations — but the long end still sets equity prices. Despite the Treasury's buyback expansion, the 10-year is back near 4.7% and the 30-year above 5.2%. Growth gets squeezed twice: yields compress future earnings, and fiscal financing competes with cloud data-center bonds for duration. Wednesday was paralysed — S&P 500 −0.02%, QQQ +0.09%, gold +0.75% — all waiting on Nvidia. Warsh keynotes Jackson Hole 10 p.m. Beijing August 28, on a payments theme aimed as much at crypto. Equities, gold, or bitcoin?
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Comments

  • fluffik
    08-20
    fluffik
    I’m staying overweight healthcare here. Q2 showed better pricing power and steadier cash flow than tech, which matters way more if yields keep whipping around
  • Jim1995
    08-20
    Jim1995
    RSI bounce matters, but 30Y back above 5.3% probably kills any clean Nvidia breakout. Jackson Hole is the real test for higher-for-longer pricing
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