苏36
08-21 23:26
Alibaba is clearly choosing growth over near-term profits. A 75% jump in capital expenditure, largely directed toward AI infrastructure, looks painful today, but the 45% growth in cloud revenue suggests the investment is beginning to generate real demand.

The bigger issue is whether this spending can eventually create operating leverage. A roughly 75% decline in reported net profit shows that Alibaba’s margin structure is still under serious pressure.

I would not treat Alibaba as simply a “cheap AI stock.” It is a bet on whether AI and cloud can become the next profit engine. If AI monetization accelerates, today’s margin compression could prove temporary. If growth slows, however, investors may discover that the margin floor is lower than expected.

For me, Alibaba is a long-term platform transformation story, but the next catalyst must be monetization, not more spending.

@Marktomarket [暗中观察]

Alibaba Hit Twice — Down 8.6%, Then HK$80 Billion Drained. Are These the Same Story?
Alibaba took two hits with different causes. Earnings first: adjusted net profit −38%, GAAP −75%, the U.S. listing down 8.57%, with JPMorgan still Overweight at a $210 target. Then dilution: an HK$80bn (~$10.2bn) placement outside the U.S. on August 23, its first since the 2019 HK listing, proceeds all to AI. Hong Kong shares fell 10.08% intraday, Tencent −3.72%, Xiaomi −4.41% as funds sold to make room. Against capex +75% and cloud revenue +45%, the dividing line is whether that HK$80bn becomes cloud revenue or depreciation. Buy the dip, or rotate to Tencent, which is not diluting?
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Comments

  • T20211222001
    08-22 00:02
    T20211222001
    I agree this is basically a platform transformation bet, but the market may be underestimating Alibaba Cloud's early edge in AI inference services. Monetization there feels like the first real unlock
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