Alibaba Slips 0.73% as Burry Bears Down — CEO Buys ~$4.98M: Who's Wrong?

Alibaba −0.73% in the U.S. Monday, while 09988 rose 0.71% in Hong Kong. The bear case, built on Burry's framework, is that the AI boom leaves Alibaba worse off as cloud and AI capex compresses margins. The bull case got a signal rather than an argument: the CEO bought about $4.98m of stock — real money, though against last week's HK$80bn placement it is a gesture, not a swing factor. One question underneath: is AI spend a margin drag or the entry ticket to cloud reacceleration? Follow the insider buy, or wait for this week's China ADR earnings?

avatar苏36
09-22 17:58
I think the most interesting part of this AI cycle is the shift from “AI that answers” to “AI that acts.” GPUs will remain essential for model inference, but autonomous agents could create a much broader infrastructure demand. Every task may require CPU capacity, networking, storage, databases, APIs and constant background processing. That changes the investment question. Instead of simply asking how many GPUs AI needs, we should ask how much total infrastructure is required to support billions of agents working simultaneously. I also find the ecosystem angle fascinating. An agent becomes far more useful when it can actually search, book, pay, communicate and execute tasks. That gives companies with strong consumer ecosystems another potential advantage. To me, the next AI opportunity may
avatarTiger_comments
09-22 16:56

One AI Agent Just Put CPUs Back in the Spotlight

AI may be moving from “answering questions” to actually doing work — and that could make CPUs important again. The latest AI trade is no longer just about GPUs. Meta’s new AI agent, Muse, has pushed investors to rethink what the next phase of AI infrastructure may actually require. Why?Because an AI agent does much more than generate an answer. It may need to:open a browser,search the web,fill out forms,call APIs,run tools,manage files,and keep working in the background for minutes or even hours. That changes the compute equation. For a chatbot, the workflow is relatively simple: Prompt → GPU inference → Response For an AI agent, it looks more like: Think → Browse → Execute → Check → Think Again → Continue GPUs still handle the heavy model inference. But many of the surrounding workloads —
One AI Agent Just Put CPUs Back in the Spotlight
The core debate boils down to two factors: The Bear Case (Burry Framework): Heavy capital expenditure on AI and cloud infrastructure acts as a margin drag in the near term, diluting existing shareholders through massive equity placements while competitive pressures limit immediate monetization. The Bull Case: AI spending is the mandatory price of admission to re-accelerate Alibaba Cloud, position the company as China's premier AI backbone, and drive long-term top-line growth. The Bottom Line: Don't trade solely on insider buys following a major share dilution. Wait for concrete evidence in quarterly Cloud revenue growth and margin stabilization before declaring the AI capex cycle a net positive for earnings per share.
Michael Burry exiting Alibaba to rotate into JD.com highlights valid concerns over return on invested capital, as a 75% profit plunge driven by a $10.2B equity dilution and a 75% spike in quarterly capex ($9.98B) creates severe near-term margin friction. However, the CEO’s ~$4.98M insider purchase—combined with cloud revenue accelerating to 45% growth and AI product revenue delivering triple-digit gains—proves that AI infrastructure spending is an essential entry ticket to cloud reacceleration rather than a permanent drag. With 40%+ cloud growth and expanding segment EBITA margins (12%), waiting for post-earnings clarity will likely confirm that Alibaba’s short-term margin compression is laying the structural foundation for long-term cloud dominance.
Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su
Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su
avatarAmool
08-26
Baba has been a slippery stock

Alibaba Slips 0.73% as Burry Bears Down — CEO Buys $4.98 Million: Who’s Wrong?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) has suddenly become a battleground between two very different investment philosophies. On one side is Michael Burry, the investor made famous by The Big Short, who has exited Alibaba and shifted his capital toward rival JD.com. Burry argues that Alibaba’s decision to issue roughly $10.2 billion of new shares to finance artificial-intelligence investment signals potentially poor returns on invested capital. He has reportedly said Alibaba would need to fall roughly 50% before he becomes interested again. On the other side is Alibaba's own management. CEO Eddie Wu purchased 350,000 Alibaba shares for approximately $4.984 million, at an average price of $14.24 per share on the Form 4 reporting ba
Alibaba Slips 0.73% as Burry Bears Down — CEO Buys $4.98 Million: Who’s Wrong?

🇨🇳🇸🇬 China & Asia Internet Stocks: Alibaba Isn’t the Whole Story

🔥 Alibaba, PDD, Tencent, JD.com & Sea/Shopee — which one is best positioned for the next AI + e-commerce cycle? I’ve been thinking about the recent debate around Alibaba and Michael Burry’s bearish view. Alibaba is down about 0.7% in the U.S. session in the screenshot, while its Hong Kong shares were slightly higher. But personally, I think focusing only on “Is Alibaba a buy or sell?” misses the bigger picture. 👉 The more interesting question is: What happens to the entire Asian internet sector as companies spend aggressively on AI, compete for online consumers, and try to turn that investment into higher future revenue? Instead of looking at one stock at a time, I want to compare several companies that are exposed to this broader trend: 🇨🇳 Alibaba — AI + Cloud + E-commerce 🇨🇳 PDD Hold
🇨🇳🇸🇬 China & Asia Internet Stocks: Alibaba Isn’t the Whole Story

Why Alibaba’s $10 Billion Share Sale Starts a Three-Year AI Payback Clock

$Alibaba(BABA)$ has raised approximately $10.2 billion by selling new Hong Kong-listed shares after spending almost $10 billion on capital expenditure in a single quarter. The placement gives the company more capacity to build AI infrastructure, but it also transfers part of the risk to shareholders immediately. From this point, cloud growth must become cash generation quickly enough to justify dilution and the lost flexibility of a previously cash-rich balance sheet. $BABA-W(09988)$ reported on August 20 for the quarter ended June 30. Revenue increased 9% to RMB269.0 billion, while AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue rose 45% to RMB48.4 billion. AI-related product revenue reached RMB12.4 billion and d
Why Alibaba’s $10 Billion Share Sale Starts a Three-Year AI Payback Clock
I would wait rather than chase the insider buy. The more important signal has already arrived in the numbers: Alibaba’s cloud and AI-services revenue grew 45%, but quarterly net profit fell 75% as capex surged 75% to RMB67.68bn.  That actually strengthens both sides of the debate. Bulls can point to genuine cloud reacceleration, while bears can argue that Alibaba is effectively buying that growth at a very high near-term cost. The HK$80bn placement adds dilution and raises the hurdle further. Alibaba now needs to demonstrate that AI infrastructure produces attractive incremental returns, not merely faster revenue. Management is targeting roughly a mid-teens return on AI investment over three years.  So I would treat the CEO purchase as a confidence signal, not a buy signal. The m
Owing the tax collector is a natural choice but it is not risk free. While there is pricing power now, the ability to do so subsequently depends on the tax payers willingness and ability to keep paying the toll - empty pockets or going into debt would be a concern for the tax collector too.
avatar苏36
08-24
Own the Toll Collector, Not the Toll Payer I’d rather own Nvidia than the companies paying the higher AI bill—but only if its pricing power proves sustainable. Rising memory costs are turning AI infrastructure into a margin test: Nvidia can pass costs downstream, while server builders and cloud providers face heavier capex. The bigger question is whether AI demand remains strong enough to absorb those increases. If customers keep spending aggressively, Nvidia’s pricing power strengthens. If budgets tighten, higher server costs could eventually slow deployments. So for me, Nvidia remains the “toll collector,” but valuation matters. I’d rather buy on meaningful pullbacks than chase strength ahead of earnings. @Marktomarket [微笑]

Four Raises in One Week. The First One Is Already Below Its Placement Price

Hello. Last friday's US session was a quiet one — $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ closed up 0.35 per cent, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 0.41 per cent and the Dow 0.98 per cent — though the week as a whole still finished lower. What mattered happened after the close. On 23 August $BABA-W(09988)$ announced and priced a placement of new shares worth HK$80 billion, about US$10.2 billion, sold at an 8.4 per cent discount, with the net proceeds going into full-stack AI infrastructure. That is the fourth such raise in the same week. Intel sold US$20 billion of stock at US$95 a share;
Four Raises in One Week. The First One Is Already Below Its Placement Price

Alibaba 5x Short DLC Gains +50% as Alibaba Shares Plunge -10%

$BABA-W(09988)$  fell 10% on Monday (24 August) morning after announcing plans to raise approximately HK$80 billion through a share sale. The placement is expected to dilute earnings and weigh on the stock’s near-term performance. Amplifying the move, the $Alibaba 5xShortSG270907(RHDW.SI)$  rose 50% in early trading, while the $Alibaba 5xLongSG270712(ZVNW.SI)$ fell a similar magnitude. The weakness spilled into the broader technology sector, pushing the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$  down approximately 3.5%. Correspondingly, the  $HSTECH 7xShortSG270309(9B2W.SI)$<
Alibaba 5x Short DLC Gains +50% as Alibaba Shares Plunge -10%

🚨 Alibaba FY27Q1: AI Growth Is Rising, But Profit Is Taking the Hit SG61 Trading Arena for SGX Listed Securities!

📊 Alibaba’s latest quarter shows a fascinating contradiction: the business is growing, especially in Cloud and AI, but the cost of that growth is becoming increasingly visible in earnings and cash flow. 🚀 Revenue Growth Is Still Real Alibaba’s August 2026 quarter, FY27 Q1, delivered revenue of approximately CN¥268.95bn, representing 8.6% year-over-year growth and slightly beating expectations. 📈 The biggest highlight was Cloud & AI Compute Services, which generated around CN¥48.4bn, up roughly 45% YoY. ☁️🤖 This was one of the strongest growth rates Alibaba’s cloud business has delivered in years and reinforces the argument that AI computing demand is becoming an increasingly important growth engine. However, investors need to look beyond the revenue headline. 👀 While sales are accelera
🚨 Alibaba FY27Q1: AI Growth Is Rising, But Profit Is Taking the Hit SG61 Trading Arena for SGX Listed Securities!

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totally agree that the persistent strength in Gold is telling that Bessent's rescue has failed. The fact that treasury showing panic and blinked is telling. @mr_cashcow come comment for coins.
Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su
Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su