苏36
08-24 16:55
Own the Toll Collector, Not the Toll Payer

I’d rather own Nvidia than the companies paying the higher AI bill—but only if its pricing power proves sustainable. Rising memory costs are turning AI infrastructure into a margin test: Nvidia can pass costs downstream, while server builders and cloud providers face heavier capex.

The bigger question is whether AI demand remains strong enough to absorb those increases. If customers keep spending aggressively, Nvidia’s pricing power strengthens. If budgets tighten, higher server costs could eventually slow deployments.

So for me, Nvidia remains the “toll collector,” but valuation matters. I’d rather buy on meaningful pullbacks than chase strength ahead of earnings.

@Marktomarket [微笑]

Alibaba Hit Twice — Down 8.6%, Then HK$80 Billion Drained. Are These the Same Story?
Alibaba took two hits with different causes. Earnings first: adjusted net profit −38%, GAAP −75%, the U.S. listing down 8.57%, with JPMorgan still Overweight at a $210 target. Then dilution: an HK$80bn (~$10.2bn) placement outside the U.S. on August 23, its first since the 2019 HK listing, proceeds all to AI. Hong Kong shares fell 10.08% intraday, Tencent −3.72%, Xiaomi −4.41% as funds sold to make room. Against capex +75% and cloud revenue +45%, the dividing line is whether that HK$80bn becomes cloud revenue or depreciation. Buy the dip, or rotate to Tencent, which is not diluting?
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Comments

  • MortimerDodd
    08-24 18:13
    MortimerDodd
    Pullback sounds nice on paper, but pre-earnings NVDA usually doesn't wait lol. Memory inflation hurts buyers more than the toll collector here
  • HiTALK
    08-24 18:13
    HiTALK
    AMD and custom silicon are the part I care about more here. If that mix keeps improving, Nvidia's toll booth premium gets tested even with solid AI demand
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