Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 20

Alibaba (BABA)

June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing.

Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets.

Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on sustained cloud margin expansion and monetization of models. Geopolitical and regulatory risks persist. Attractive for clients seeking Chinese tech exposure with a clearer AI growth path.

Alibaba Slips 0.73% as Burry Bears Down — CEO Buys ~$4.98M: Who's Wrong?

Alibaba −0.73% in the U.S. Monday, while 09988 rose 0.71% in Hong Kong. The bear case, built on Burry's framework, is that the AI boom leaves Alibaba worse off as cloud and AI capex compresses margins. The bull case got a signal rather than an argument: the CEO bought about $4.98m of stock — real money, though against last week's HK$80bn placement it is a gesture, not a swing factor. One question underneath: is AI spend a margin drag or the entry ticket to cloud reacceleration? Follow the insider buy, or wait for this week's China ADR earnings?

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Comments

huuou
08-23 10:42
huuou
45% cloud growth pops, but 12 straight quarters of triple-digit AI product growth is the part I care about. That moat looks deeper than a short hype cycle

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