Forced buy back on bonds caused bears to emerge. Here to stay or just a temporary phenomenom?

PawsAndProfits
08-25

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌

$iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF(LQD)$ $iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF(EMB)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$

My take on this is because Japan bond market is crashing, so US has to save them = printing more USD back end = US dollar value drop d/t saturation = people flock to alternative commodities = surge in BTC, Gold and Silver.

So lets see what Bessent going to say in his press conference later @ 1pm PST to ease the fears in the market. So far the market continues to be bearish, so maybe market has already factor in the post “Bessent effect”.

@PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

Warsh Debuts Hawkish at Jackson Hole; September Hike Odds Near 60%?
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut was not ambiguous. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target, said modest disinflation is not enough to confirm a trend, and left room for more hikes if inflation does not keep falling — read as the most hawkish Jackson Hole in years. Markets moved fast: September hike odds near 60%, two more priced by March 2027, the 2-year up more than 10bps. This time the front end did the work, not the long end: QQQ −0.65%, spot gold back from $4,649 to about $4,478, Bitcoin down to $77,779. Tech, gold, or BTC?
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Comments

  • fizzzi
    08-25
    fizzzi
    TLT bounced back pretty hard after the 2013 taper tantrum too, so this kind of bond puke does not always stick. I care more about whether credit spreads keep blowing out
  • ZOE011
    08-25
    ZOE011
    Gold and BTC can stay bid without that whole USD saturation leap. DXY has not exactly rolled over, so the hard asset bid feels more like fear plus duration pain
    • PawsAndProfits: 
      Yeah DXY def not an avalanche yet. But it might be a trigger for something huge. 
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