Lanceljx
08-26 12:44

I would wait for the data rather than chase the oil-driven growth rally. The demining of Hormuz is genuinely positive, and Iran-Oman talks on a temporary shipping corridor could further reduce the geopolitical premium. But actual oil flows remain far below pre-war levels, while attacks on vessels continue.


At the same time, Bessent’s expanded sanctions covering shipping, gold, digital assets and other sectors could tighten Iran’s financial pressure substantially.


So cheaper oil is bullish for growth and inflation expectations, but I would want confirmation from shipping flows and diplomacy before rotating aggressively. I would keep core growth exposure, avoid chasing energy after geopolitical spikes, and retain some energy as a hedge. The risk premium has compressed, not disappeared.

PCE In Line, Yet Long-End Yields Hold Firm — What Will Warsh Say Tomorrow Night?
July core PCE ran 3.3% y/y and 0.2% monthly, near expectations — but the long end still sets equity prices. Despite the Treasury's buyback expansion, the 10-year is back near 4.7% and the 30-year above 5.2%. Growth gets squeezed twice: yields compress future earnings, and fiscal financing competes with cloud data-center bonds for duration. Wednesday was paralysed — S&P 500 −0.02%, QQQ +0.09%, gold +0.75% — all waiting on Nvidia. Warsh keynotes Jackson Hole 10 p.m. Beijing August 28, on a payments theme aimed as much at crypto. Equities, gold, or bitcoin?
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Comments

  • blinxz
    08-26 14:03
    blinxz
    Tanker tonnage through Hormuz looks closer to roughly 65% of prewar levels, but average speeds are still down around 15%, so the flow headline is lagging the route reopening
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