I would wait for the data. Moderna’s rally shows the market is shifting from a short-covering story towards assigning real value to intismeran, and a potential $9.2bn peak-sales opportunity would clearly transform the company’s outlook.

But peak sales are still a model, not realised demand. With LTM revenue around $2.23bn and declining, paying up after another 14% jump leaves little room for disappointing efficacy, regulatory delays or slower commercial adoption.

Merck offers the more diversified route to the same oncology opportunity, but with less upside sensitivity if intismeran succeeds spectacularly. For Moderna, I would rather miss the first part of the move and add after stronger clinical data validate the revenue thesis. At $158+, evidence matters more than analyst targets.