8/25 Pre-Market Thoughts: The Night Before Earnings

One-sentence theme: NVIDIA reports earnings after the close tonight, with massive block trades betting on a surge to 230. Anthropic's "$30 trillion pie-in-the-sky" narrative continues to hype the AI atmosphere.

I. Sentiment Focus: The Night Before NVIDIA Earnings

Tonight (8/26) after the close is the make-or-break event for the entire market this week. Options block trades have already taken a clear side (see below).

• Outlook: GEX shows 200 is support / a Triple Witching magnet, while 230 is a super Call wall. IV is elevated. There is a high probability of a double beat, but "already fully priced in + circular financing concerns + historical post-earnings pullbacks" → the risk of failing to rally or even pulling back is higher.

• Strategic tone: Post-earnings IV crush + September 18 Triple Witching pinning → high probability of returning to the 200–210 range → suitable for seller strategies / spreads; don't chase with naked long Calls.

II. Other Events

**Anthropic's "$30 trillion" pie-in-the-sky:** Sources say Anthropic's potential revenue scale exceeds $30 trillion (= theoretical ceiling at 100% market share).

⚠️ Note the framing: This is "Total Addressable Market (TAM)," not actual revenue — just like Musk's "$26.5 trillion potential market" commentary during SPCX's IPO. It's hype-building, not real performance. Part of the pre-IPO AI sentiment campaign.

MiniMax (00100): First-half revenue surged 283% YoY, with gross margin rising to 17.9%, but adjusted net loss was RMB 293 million, widening 111% YoY (revenue growth without profit growth). After breaking below 310, the next support level is 280.

III. Notable Block Trades (With Interpretation)

• NVDA: 8/28 230 Buy Call (116,000 contracts) $NVDA 20260828 230.0 CALL$  + sell 240 Put (105,000 contracts)$NVDA 20260828 240.0 CALL$ , ~$10 million notional → strongly bullish on earnings, betting on a surge to 230; selling the 240 Put finances the position (Risk Reversal = synthetic long).

• DRAM: 1/15/2027 57 Buy Call (19,000 contracts)$DRAM 20270115 57.0 CALL$ → long-term bullish on storage.

• XLE: 11/20 70 Sell Call (11,000 contracts)$XLE 20261120 70.0 CALL$ → betting crude/energy will remain in a pullback through November (capping the upside).

• BABA: 11/20 110 Sell Put (3,300 contracts) $BABA 20261120 110.0 PUT$ → betting Alibaba won't break below 110 by November (floor support below the placement price).

• MSFT: 9/18 455 Sell Put (4,766 contracts) $MSFT 20260918 455.0 PUT$ → betting Microsoft will hold above the 60-week MA through September.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact.

2. Gold Sell Put: The increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

3. SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM). For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.