One-sentence theme: NVIDIA reports earnings after the close tonight, with massive block trades betting on a surge to 230. Anthropic's "$30 trillion pie-in-the-sky" narrative continues to hype the AI atmosphere. I. Sentiment Focus: The Night Before NVIDIA Earnings Tonight (8/26) after the close is the make-or-break event for the entire market this week. Options block trades have already taken a clear side (see below). Outlook: GEX shows 200 is support / a Triple Witching magnet, while 230 is a super Call wall. IV is elevated. There is a high probability of a double beat, but "already fully priced in + circular financing concerns + historical post-earnings pullbacks" → the risk of failing to rally or even pulling back is higher. Strategic tone: Post-earnings IV crush + September 18 Triple Wi

I. Fundamentals Earnings expectations: Revenue and profit expected to double-beat, with strong guidance. Revenue is expected at $94–95 billion (guidance at $91 billion, beating by $3–4 billion), up 16% YoY. Next-quarter guidance is expected to be raised to $107–108 billion. Drivers: GB300 rack shipments ramping (total rack units up 15% QoQ to 17,000–18,000), initial Vera Rubin shipments + Vera CPU volume ramp, and solid cloud capex. Several key points to watch: China H200 is an upside lever: Approved but shipments are slow — every 100,000 units shipped generates approximately $3 billion in incremental revenue, making it an important variable for October guidance. Addressing competition: In response to the ASIC/AMD share-erosion narrative, management will emphasize platform flexibility + Ve

One-sentence theme: Smart money is buying — Pelosi is betting on AI power (BE/INTC), while Jack Ma and Joe Tsai are adding to Alibaba. At the same time, crude oil plunged 3% (Middle East easing). I. Sentiment Focus: Big Players Buying in Sync Pelosi family bets on "AI Power" On 7/24, purchased 10,000 shares of INTC + 15,000 shares of BE, along with long-term call options expiring in June 2027$BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$  $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$. BE (Bloom Energy) = solid oxide fuel cells, capable of providing on-site power directly to data centers and large commercial clients → a "power supply concept stock" tied to AI data center expansion. Jack Ma and Joe T

One-sentence theme: Alibaba's largest-ever HK$80 billion secondary offering drained liquidity from the Hong Kong market, triggering a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks. U.S. equities are in a wait-and-see mode between Bessent's trillion-dollar buyback (which the market doubts) and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. I. Sentiment Focus: Alibaba's Massive Capital Drain Bleeds Hong Kong Alibaba plans a HK$80 billion secondary offering at HK$112.7 per share — the largest-ever new share placement in Hong Kong history, aimed at solidifying its AI leadership position. This is the direct cause of today's Hong Kong market plunge: a placement = discounted new shares = dilution + supply shock. The placement price of HK$112.7 is below the current price → pulling the stock price directly toward HK$112.7, whi

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 This table answers: Where the stock price is likely to be this week (the range). Whether the seller premium is expensive right now (IV percentile rank). How far out the strike price should be placed to stay safe (Column 8). The ranges calculated in this table are like "probability of rain," not a "guarantee of no rain." The usage is simple: place the sell put strike price further below the lower end of the range. The higher the percentile rank, the more favorable it is for sellers. 📊 Noteworthy Points NVDA is the most watched volatility story this week: Implied weekly move 6.1%, IV30 at 42.61%, ran

One-sentence theme: A massive rotation is underway — gold at 4,500, crude oil +3%, bitcoin short-squeeze rally (hard assets rampage), while U.S. stocks continue to pull back. Fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and risk appetite has shifted toward physical assets. I. Sentiment Focus: Hard Assets Surging Across the Board Gold breaks above 4,500: The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-end repurchase scale (injecting liquidity) → gold surged to 4,500. However, pre-market Thursday saw the 30-year Treasury yield rebound sharply, returning to pre-announcement levels → fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and U.S. equities continued their pullback. Crude oil +3%, maintaining strong upward momentum. Bitcoin short squeeze! Surged to 72,000, with $2.7 bi

I. Cloud Business Beats Expectations Alibaba is expected to report Q1 FY2027 revenue with customer management revenue down 8% YoY, while cloud revenue is expected to grow 45% YoY (accelerating). Losses from delivery and flash purchase investments are narrowing rapidly, leading to upward revisions in FY2027 EPS forecasts. Cloud revenue continues to accelerate with improving profit margins quarter-over-quarter, which could serve as a catalyst for the stock in the coming quarters. Core catalysts (AI + Cloud): Qwen 4.0 foundational model upgrade in Q3 2026; September 22 Alibaba Cloud Apsara Conference: capital guidance updates, cloud business outlook, and new product launches; Potential T-Head semiconductor spin-off in Q2 2027. II. Volatility Estimates and Key Levels **U.S.-listed BABA (curren

One-sentence theme: Bulls and bears collide — Hynix's massive buyback supports storage/semiconductors (bullish), but OpenAI and Anthropic both show slowing growth (bearish). Block trades are uniformly selling Puts at lower levels to "set a floor." I. Sentiment Focus: One Bullish, One Bearish 🟢 Bullish: Hynix's $28.4 Billion Buyback Halts Semiconductor Decline Hynix announced a 40 trillion won (~$28.4 billion) treasury stock buyback and cancellation, enhancing shareholder returns — starting August 20, lasting three months. Immediate effect: the news halted the semiconductor downtrend, with Hynix itself stabilizing and rebounding. Signal significance: buyback + cancellation = management using real money to signal that "the stock is undervalued and will rise further," stabilizing market confi

One-sentence theme: Risk signals are piling up — semiconductor sell-off + bond yields at 18-year highs + large VIX/IGV block trades betting on a pullback — with much of the focus pointing toward Jackson Hole (8/27–29). I. Sentiment Focus: Bearish Signals Flashing Simultaneously Semiconductor pre-market sell-off: SOXX -3.8%, SMH -3.3% — the previously leading chip names are starting to retreat. 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%, the highest since 2007 ⚠️ Surging long-end rates will raise corporate borrowing costs. Key insight: the yield spike is very likely driven by heavy debt issuance from the AI supply chain itself — AI debt issuance → pushes rates higher → rates feed back and hurt AI itself (more expensive financing, valuation pressure). This is a self-reinforcing risk loop, and a side eff

I. Smartphone Business Holds the Fort, Overall Results in Line with Expectations Smartphone average selling price hit an all-time high (passing through rising costs) → Q2 smartphone gross margin remained above 8%. Shipments exceeded expectations: Omdia data showed Q2 shipments of 31.2 million units, 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. New model launches and export plans are key to restarting growth: EV sales have slowed significantly in 2026 year-to-date. To reignite market enthusiasm, Xiaomi plans to deliver its first SUV model in late September 2026. Additionally, Xiaomi plans to begin exporting vehicles in 2027. Overall financials: Total revenue is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with recurring net profit of approximately RMB 6 billion, in line with expectations. Core tension: Smar

One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO — Valuation Supported by the "Future" Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out — projected 2028 revenue of $190–200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic i

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 Noteworthy Points IV continues to broadly decline (off-season + no near-term earnings): Compared to last week — SKHY 87% → 78.5%, MU 75% → 67%, SPCX 89% → 67%, INTC 74% → 68%, AMD 63% → 59%. Volatility expectations for storage/AI names continue to cool, and seller premiums are thinning out. SPY at 19.46%, QQQ at 22.38%, AAPL at 24.74% — the broader market remains extremely stable. NVDA reports earnings on August 26, which will also impact AMD's stock price. AAPL at 305.8 and GOOGL at 345.9 are both sitting at the lower end of last week's forecast ranges, resting on support levels. Barring debt issu

One-sentence theme: AI bulls and bears are in a direct face-off — Lenovo's AI order explosion (bullish) vs Burry's broad-based AI shorting (bearish). But looking one layer deeper, the shorts are really betting on "compute rental prices falling." The strategic tone remains unchanged: position via Sell Puts on dips, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Bulls vs Bears 🟢 Bulls: Lenovo AI Orders Surge Lenovo's Q1 net profit broke through $1 billion, with AI server backlog orders reaching $54 billion. This drove DELL and HPE higher in pre-market trading. → DELL is a good Sell Put candidate ahead of earnings (riding the AI server demand theme). 🔴 Bears: Burry Strikes Again, Calling "NVIDIA = Enron" Michael Burry shorted: NBIS (247), Micron (924), ORCL (152), and also shorted SOXX. He compared N

I. Valuation Is Cheap Q2 total revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow 18% YoY — results are likely in line with or slightly above consensus. Delivery loss visibility has improved: expected to drop significantly from the 2025 peak of RMB 13 billion to below RMB 6 billion in Q2 2026. JoyBuy is expanding modestly into Italy, Spain, and Greece; the acquisition of Germany's Ceconomy (€2.2 billion) has received approval from the German Ministry of Economic Affairs. Earnings recovery is solid + valuation is not demanding. Current 2026/27 P/E is only 9.6/7.7x — valuation is reasonable. Core tension: Revenue pressure (high base, -3%) but strong profit growth (+18%, delivery loss narrowing), combined with extremely low valuation (8–9x P/E) → long-term va

One-sentence theme: CPI came in as expected, focus shifts to compute — demand-side continues to validate (CRWV/NBIS capacity sold out, Temasek eyeing Korean storage, CME launching compute futures). Strategic tone: Pullbacks are opportunities for Sell Put positioning, not reasons to chase highs. I. Macro: CPI in Line, No Surprises CPI came in at +3.4% YoY, core at +2.5% — both in line with expectations. The probability of a September rate hike remains unchanged at 45%. → No change to the rate-cut trade rhythm; neutral impact on the broader market. II. Compute Theme: Strong Demand-Side Validation ✅ CRWV: Backlog orders at $104 billion, EPS -1.14 beat the -1.41 consensus. NBIS stated that all 2027 capacity is already sold out. → Compute demand remains very strong and shows no signs of slowing

I. No Surprises in Earnings, But Key Product Launches Are Imminent Tencent Q2 expectations: Total revenue +8.8% YoY (consensus +10%), adjusted net profit +4.7% (consensus +9%) — both slightly below consensus, a near-term risk point. WeChat AI assistant beta launch and foundational model improvements are underway. The market may be underestimating Tencent's leading position in China's AI agent orchestration layer (WorkBuddy ranks #1 in user base). Capex for 2026–28 is raised 23–25% to RMB 185B/225B/250B. Forward EPS is lowered due to increased AI investment. Tencent will host its Global Digital Ecosystem Summit in September 2026, focusing on breakthroughs in WeChat AI agents, WorkBuddy, and other 2C products. The WeChat AI launch is expected in Q3 2026, followed by the Hunyuan (HY) foundati

Today's one-sentence theme: The AI theme continues (Intel's fundraising expansion, Anthropic's planned IPO), while storage enters a phase of "high IV but the leveraged surge is over." Hong Kong stocks get a catalyst from the Hang Seng Tech Index expansion. Strategic tone: Sell into high IV, sell Puts on quality names on pullbacks. I. Today's New Focus Areas Intel Fundraising: Short-Term Negative, But Overwhelming Demand Is a Strong Endorsement The stock fell 4% on Monday. The fundraising scale expanded from $15 billion to $20 billion, with subscription demand exceeding $100 billion. Pricing is expected above $95, with proceeds going toward accelerating AI and advanced manufacturing. Interpretation (through the lens of equity financing logic): Equity financing is typically a short-term nega

Today's one-sentence theme: The rate-cut trade continues, with the broader market hitting new highs and entering high-level consolidation. Today's new highlights: Berkshire's big bet on Google, TSMC's revenue confirming AI demand, and PLTR/AAOI leading the gains. The main play remains — "don't chase highs, use Sell Puts on pullbacks to position." I. Today's New Focus Areas 1. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 Holdings: Heavy Bet on Google (Significant) $4.5 billion in buybacks, $6.8 billion acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion into Google, $10 billion added to Japan exposure. Interpretation: The last time Buffett made a bet of this magnitude was on Apple. This Google position is a powerful long-term bullish signal. → Google is a strong candidate for long-term Sell Put strategies (bu