Tiger 123
09-18
C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong


Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed.


The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over.
$Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of revenue.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ official August revenue was NT$514.8B, +53.3% YoY, bringing Jan–Aug growth to 39.3%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ latest Q2 FY27 filing shows revenue of $96.2B, +106% YoY, with Data Center at $89B, +117%.
Last Speech Before Blackout: What Will Warsh Say?
Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Bangkok on October 16 Beijing time, the last official comment before the FOMC blackout ahead of the October 27–28 meeting. Markets price about 80% odds of no move in October and similar odds of a December hike: QQQ closed Thursday -1.34% at $747.58, SPY -0.42% at $773.93. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.366% and the 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Bulls say the hold is priced and a non-hawkish speech lifts an overhang; bears say term premium and fiscal imbalances drive the long end, and the Fed can't fix either. What do you want to hear from Warsh?
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Comments

  • jinxie
    09-18
    jinxie
    AVGO putting up 221% AI growth with 46% FCF margin is the part people still underrate. That says AI infra demand is not just strong, it is monetising cleanly
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