$Microsoft(MSFT)$ monetisation shown via Q4 Azure growth reached 43%, and management expects about 45% constant-currency growth next quarter. Importantly, Microsoft says customer demand still exceeds available capacity and that new capacity brought online in Q4 was rapidly monetised. Commercial RPO reached US$678 billion, +84% YoY, while roughly 30% is expected to convert into revenue within 12 months. Microsoft also reported more than 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. CapEx was US$41 billion in the quarter. Accounting changes now put CY2026 reported CapEx near US$175 billion, but Microsoft explicitly said the change is mostly lease classification rather than lower underlying infrastructure investment. FY27 CapEx is still expected t

The first half of 2026 had already priced enormous growth into AI infrastructure stocks. Memory, semiconductors, equipment and related names had risen dramatically. Morningstar notes that some AI hardware stocks had appreciated 2x, 3x or even 4x before earnings. Consequently, merely reporting “excellent” numbers wasn’t enough anymore — companies effectively needed to beat already extraordinary expectations and raise the outlook.

Yesterday’s biggest positive was Treasury intervention in the bond market. The US Treasury announced that it will double long-duration bond buybacks to at least US$4 billion per operation from September through early November. The move followed the 30-year Treasury yield reaching nearly 5.34%, its highest in almost two decades.  That is meaningful relief, but I would not interpret it as the end of the bond problem. The underlying issues—US fiscal deficits, inflation and enormous AI infrastructure financing requirements—remain unresolved. They showed that “many” policymakers believe higher rates may ultimately be required if inflation does not continue falling, while three policymakers had already voted for a 25 bp hike at the July meeting. The current policy rate remains 3.50%–3.75%.

The US Treasury announced that it will double long-duration bond buybacks to at least US$4 billion per operation from September through early November. The move followed the 30-year Treasury yield reaching nearly 5.34%, its highest in almost two decades. The result: 10-year yield → ~4.65% 30-year yield → ~5.20% S&P 500 → +0.21% Nasdaq → +0.16% Dow → +0.22%. That is meaningful relief, but I would not interpret it as the end of the bond problem. The underlying issues—US fiscal deficits, inflation and enormous AI infrastructure financing requirements—remain unresolved. 🔴 Fed — more hawkish than the market hoped The July Fed minutes were important. They showed that “many” policymakers believe higher rates may ultimately be required if inflation does not continue falling, while three policy

1. CPI delivered the outcome we wanted July US CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and eased to 2.5% year-on-year. This is not enough to declare inflation defeated, but it materially reduces the urgency for another Fed hike. Markets now place roughly a 60% probability on no September rate change, versus approximately 50-50 before CPI. That is a meaningful positive change from yesterday. My concern shifts away from immediate Fed tightening toward two longer-term issues: energy inflation + US bond supply. #1 opportunity — AI infrastructure just received another validation Cisco’s results are important. Fiscal Q4 revenue rose to US$17.25 billion from US$14.67 billion, while net income jumped to US$3.86 billion. More impor

There is no evidence yet that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is slowing materially. The better investment opportunity continues to move toward the physical AI infrastructure chain: REITs — today’s CPI matters considerably to this sector   Soft CPI → lower Treasury yields → positive REIT catalyst. Hot CPI + Brent approaching $90 → higher yields → negative REIT catalyst.

1. US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, versus expectations for an 80,000 increase. May and June payrolls were also revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, but largely because participation fell. Markets consequently cut the implied probability of a September Fed hike from above 50% to below 50%. This pushed the S&P 500 to a record close on Friday:  * S&P 500: +0.62% * Nasdaq: +1.30% * Dow: +0.The power thesis continues to strengthen. The US EIA expects electricity consumption to rise from 4,195 billion kWh in 2025 to 4,269 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,399 billion kWh in 2027, driven partly by AI data centres and electrification. Grid constraints, turbine shortages and permitting delays are already becoming major barriers to AI

July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, versus expectations for an increase of about 80,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, partly because people left the labour force, while previous months were revised lower. That pushed the implied probability of a September Fed hike down to roughly 40%–44%, compared with about two-thirds a week earlier. The The semiconductor picture is improving following the recent correction, but volatility remains high. AI-related demand remains visible in memory, cloud infrastructure and data-centre investment. Sandisk, for example, forecast revenue above expectations because of strong memory demand from AI data centres, even though its shares subsequently sold off as investors focused on valuation and expectations. 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4

#Tech Stocks: Buy the dip or run for exit The biggest new development today is the surprise contraction in US employment, which materially reduced expectations for a September Fed hike and pushed global equities and bonds higher. The S&P 500 closed at a record, while the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. AI-related demand remains visible in memory, cloud infrastructure and data-centre investment. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$, for example, forecast revenue above expectations because of strong memory demand from AI data centres, even though its shares subsequently sold off as investors focused on valuation and expectations. today’s weak jobs number does not change the structural thesis. Lower Treasury yields actually improve financing conditions for large data

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Markets are focusing on Friday’s US employment report. Softer job creation would reduce the likelihood of another Fed increase and could support bonds, REITs, utilities and growth stocks. However, a very weak report would shift the concern from inflation toward recession and earnings risk. The preferable outcome is moderate employment growth accompanied by easing wage pressure. Earnings The earnings season remains strong overall, but markets are punishing companies whose results do not exceed very high expectations. * AMD: data-centre revenue more than doubled to US$6.72 billion, but its shares fell because investors wanted a larger AI payoff. * SpaceX: reported record revenue, but its shares fell sharply because of concerns over heavy AI capital expenditure, cash burn and whether Starlink

The core catalyst for PLTR's ~14.8% surge in overnight trading (closing at $144.21) was its Q2 2026 earnings report, which significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations across all key metrics, prompting the company to raise its full-year revenue and profit forecasts 148. Key Drivers of the Surge Massive Revenue Beat & Accelerated Growth: Q2 revenue hit $19.35 billion , representing a staggering +93% year-over-year growth . This was $1.3 billion above the consensus estimate of ~$18.02 billion 158. The company's growth rate is accelerating dramatically from an already high base. U.S. Commercial Business Explodes: The standout driver was the U.S. commercial segment, where sales surged +149% YoY to $764 million . This significantly beat the analyst estimate of $716.4 million, a figure CE

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$   [Miser]  

$DBS(D05.SI)$  should definitely be on the forefront for SG Banks with upcoming Q2 announcements this week. Interesting to see how they fare especially post the recent run in less than 1 month.

Key developments 1. Federal Reserve and bonds — largest immediate market risk The Fed maintained its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but three policymakers favoured a 25-basis-point hike. The US 10-year yield subsequently reached about 4.75%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.2%. These levels raise discount rates across global assets and increase refinancing pressure. Likely winners: banks with strong deposit franchises, exchanges, cash-rich companies. Likely losers: REITs, long-duration growth stocks, highly leveraged utilities and speculative technology. 2. Earnings — AI spending is being accepted when revenue follows Amazon reported AWS growth of 37%, raised planned 2026 capital expenditure to US$220 billion and said demand continues to exceed available capacity. Microsoft reported 43%

My interpretation of the latest market movement is that the market has shifted from rewarding “good” results to demanding “exceptional” results with a convincing forward outlook. Tesla’s latest Q2 earnings are a good example of this change. Here’s how I see the current environment: 1. The market is now forward-looking, not backward-looking The Q2 numbers describe what happened over the last three months. However, institutional investors are pricing what earnings will look like over the next 12–24 months. Tesla delivered strong revenue growth, but investors focused on: * Earnings per share missing expectations. * Gross margin compression. * Negative free cash flow due to massive capital expenditure. * Management reaffirming even higher spending on AI, Robotaxi, Optimus and semiconductor man

$Micron Technology(MU)$  $MU 20260731 855.0 PUT$  

$SOXL 20260731 117.0 PUT$  

$SKHY 20260807 140.0 PUT$