Tiger 123
09-19

The underlying numbers make the comment more credible than a purely sentiment-driven rally. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   latest quarter produced $96.2bn revenue, +106% YoY, with Data Center at $89.0bn, +117%. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$    Data Center revenue reached $6.7bn, +107% YoY, while $Broadcom(AVGO)$   AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7bn, +221% YoY, and Broadcom expects $21.7bn in the current quarter.

The interesting development this week is that money is already moving beyond the obvious GPU names. On Friday, $Lam Research(LRCX)$ ,$Applied Materials(AMAT)$   were among the semiconductor leaders. 

The biggest confirmation would not be another Jensen comment. I’d watch whether the enormous capex commitments from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google and other hyperscalers continue translating into actual deployments, and whether Nvidia/Broadcom/AMD continue converting demand into revenue without deteriorating margins.

I’d also watch HBM availability, networking/optical demand and semiconductor-equipment orders. If those continue rising alongside GPU shipments, it tells us the AI buildout is genuinely expanding rather than simply shifting spending between suppliers.

And there is one particularly interesting second-order development: AI infrastructure financing is becoming its own asset class. Nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR intended to mobilize more than $500bn of third-party capital for AI infrastructure over time. That could prolong the buildout, but it also creates a risk worth watching—AI capex increasingly financed on assumptions about future compute utilization.

Chip Stocks Sold Off, But AMD Says Demand Still Outstrips Supply?
Chips retreated with the AI complex Thursday: Intel -5.34% to $107.08, Broadcom -4.35% to $360.14, AMD -3.90% to $620.68, Nvidia -2.94% to $230.48. AMD CEO Lisa Su said in Taipei this week that AI chip demand still exceeds supply even as output scales into 2026, with HBM, packaging and wafers all constrained; Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan reaffirmed Terafab. Bulls say a read from those with real order books beats an accounting revision; bears say capacity is a 2026 story and downstream budgets validate demand, not supplier talk. Executives call demand insatiable while stocks fall — add here?
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