BULL CASE FOR NBIS

MMMTWealth
10-08 09:40

This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August.

My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B.

This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting:

-> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B.

-> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx).

-> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT.

-> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV.

Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030.

Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.

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