MMMTWealth
MMMTWealth
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The Big 5--AI x Biology, Financial Revolution, Commodities, Optics& The Power Bottleneck

The Big 5 1. AI x Biology: $Tempus AI(TEM)$: The data layer $CRISPR Therapeutics AG(CRSP)$: The execution layer cutting DNA at a specific site. $Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$: Higher risk play on editing individual bases $Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(RXRX)$: Data generation layer $Eli Lilly(LLY)$: The entire stack 2. Financial Revolution: $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$: The everthing crypto play
The Big 5--AI x Biology, Financial Revolution, Commodities, Optics& The Power Bottleneck
avatarMMMTWealth
10-09 10:00

MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market

$Micron Technology(MU)$ still has to be one of the more mispriced stocks in the market especially after Davidson just raised their PT to $3,000. Here's some key points on $Micron Technology(MU)$: 1. Keep saying it's cyclical all you want. It's still not. -> 87% gross margins are not a sign of a "cyclical" stock. -> $33B worth of FCF (61% margins) + cash position covering a further buildout is not a sign either. 2. If EPS doesn't grow from Q1 forecast...we're looking at $153 in EPS in FY27 which means the stock trades at 7x EPS. -> For reference the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ now trades ~21x EPS. 3. 87% gr
MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market
avatarMMMTWealth
10-09 09:56

EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Brazil $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ is far more than an "anti-AI market" like JP Morgan are calling it. It wins in an AI bull market and as a hedge against an AI bull market. People are massively underestimating how physical the AI buildout is. And people are also massively underestimating how much renewable energy, graphite, and rare earths Brazil has for this AI buildout. Bullish AI -> Bullish Brazil. Renewables: $EBR Rare Earths: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ Broader: $Vale SA(VALE)$ / $Pet
EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it
avatarMMMTWealth
10-08 09:40

BULL CASE FOR NBIS

This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August. My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B. This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting: -> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B. -> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx). -> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT. -> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV. Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030. Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.
BULL CASE FOR NBIS

A Reminder with Most Physical AI Stocks Down ~30% From Highs

A reminder with most physical AI stocks down ~30% from highs Jensen $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ said Physical AI could ultimately be 10x larger than digital AI Here's a simple "picks and shovels" roadmap: -> BEARINGS & ACTUATORS: $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$ $RBC Bearings(RBC)$ $Ametek Inc(AME)$ Harmonic Drive -> SENSORS: $Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.(ST)$ $Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.(ALGM)$ $Allient
A Reminder with Most Physical AI Stocks Down ~30% From Highs

GRAB Has ~2x Potential From Here to FY29/FY30

I think $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ has ~2x potential from here to FY29/FY30 but not much higher. Relative to the upside potential for other names...it's good but slightly less exciting. I forecast ~$8B in revenue in FY29 which at 19% net margins gives us $1.52B in net income and $0.37 in EPS (4.1B outstanding shares). ~20x EPS estimate which I think is fair given $Uber(UBER)$ ~18x, but with the potential of the financial services platform (combined with the SEA risk) 20x EPS on $0.37 gives you $7.40 (130% gain). Fwiw, I think a recovery play like $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ actually has more upside (but with more risk). Solid but p
GRAB Has ~2x Potential From Here to FY29/FY30

Yield Narrative Takes a Back Seat: QQQ Hits New Highs

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! It really does seem like the yield narrative has taken a back seat now as the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ hits a new high today. I've been saying for the past 2 months that: 1. The macro isn't as bad as doomers suggest. 2. The forecasts we're seeing in AI CapEx and the capital flowing to the supply chains from that CapEx will trump an elevated 10Y yield. And now here we are: -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ at ATHs -> Crypto breaking out with $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ and $Robinhood(HOOD)$ moving 22% and
Yield Narrative Takes a Back Seat: QQQ Hits New Highs

AI Chance: Dip the Stocks Deserved

I think today's a good day to remind you that the unfathomable forecasts we're seeing from the biggest technological revolution of all time overpower whatever macro guess you decide to make. 10-Y yields are high yes but $iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF(HYG)$ is holding up fine. Also a reminder that $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ is close to an inflection point where the r/r makes complete sense for the buyer at ~1.3x FY28 sales. A reminder that robotics and space themes are going nowhere. Robotics still needs: -> A 300x increase in actuation & bearings... $RBC Bearings(RBC)$ &
AI Chance: Dip the Stocks Deserved

TMDX is Undervalued at $86.

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Right... $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ is undervalued at $86. -> CEO says Europe is ~50% of the entire global transplant opportunity (currently only generating ~$20M of revenue in Europe). -> CEO forecasts 30,000 transplants by 2032 generating $2 billion in revenue (18% CAGR for 6 years). -> Director buying $110k worth of shares. -> CEO regularly bought in the +$100 range. -> 2H 2027 is the year revenue starts to get generated from kidneys and Europe. I forecast we hit $2B in revenue in 2032 (18% CAGR from here) which is in line with management commentary if some of the above goes right. At 40% EBITDA margins that's $800M in EBITDA (or 31% CAGR from
TMDX is Undervalued at $86.

The High Risk, High Reward Bets in the Market I See Right Now Are

The high risk, high reward bets in the market I see right now are: - $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$: A higher risk play on mineral security being a form of national security. - $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: A bet on whether it can become a material CPO/NPO optical source player as well as a bet on 4D LiDAR. - $Snap Inc(SNAP)$: My bull case model gives us a $40 stock (6.8x from here). A lot needs to go right to get there. - $Aurora Innovation(AUR)$: Pure execution bet on the industrialization of Volvo, AUMOVIO, and PACCAR. -
The High Risk, High Reward Bets in the Market I See Right Now Are

Here's How I see COIN as a $250B stock (2030-2032)

Here's how I see $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ as a $250B stock (2030-2032): I'm forecasting $6.2B in stabelcoin revenue: -> $3T stablecoin supply by 2031. -> USDC currently 26% of total supply today. -> $3T * 26% = $780B -> $780B * 25% of all USDC = $195B of USDC on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ -> 4% yield = $7.8B in stablecoin revenue in 2031 I'm forecasting ~$8.2B in total other revenue (transaction revenue + agentic commerce revenue): -> Q2 2026 transaction revenue annualized at $2.4B with $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ down. Forecasting $4B by 2031. -> Prediction markets already at $100M ARR
Here's How I see COIN as a $250B stock (2030-2032)

Here are the Industries Mispriced---Photonics, Robotics& Financial revolution

Markets are currently terrible at pricing inflection point industries. All these three industries are mispriced: 1. Photonics -> $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ inflection point should be early H2 2027. -> GS forecasts for optical transceivers is huge for $Lumentum(LITE)$ and $Coherent(COHR)$. 2. Robotics -> Humanoid economics should inflect 2027/2028. -> Opportunities here are endless from perception to rare earths to actuation to communication. -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ $Aeva Technologies I
Here are the Industries Mispriced---Photonics, Robotics& Financial revolution

10-Year Yields Being this High isn't Bullish I Know

10-Year Yields being this high isn't bullish I know. But it doesn't trump the fact that we have companies like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ literally forecasting FY28 revenue to be 60% higher than the Street. Remember 30-Year Yields hit 5.09% in October 2023. Were people panicking about yields then? Yes. Have people now missed out on generational runs because their focus was on the wrong thing? Yes. Don't lose focus on the unfathomable numbers we're likely to see in FY27-FY29 because you're being distracted by this constant bearish yield narrative. I remain long and I'll be happy buying up some quality names if markets stay spooked about the macro.
10-Year Yields Being this High isn't Bullish I Know

My 2033 Take on Who the Largest 3 Companies in the World

My 2033 take on who the largest 3 companies in the world will be: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Absurd growth still for a +$5T company. - FY28 revenue will be ~$680B - FY30 revenue I forecast to be ~$1.2T - $10T MC seems pretty reasonable based on that. 2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$: - AWS should be generating ~$1T in revs by 2035. - Include everything else (e-comm, digital ads, subscriptions, stakes etc) - $6-8T MC for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is feasible 3. $Eli Lilly(LLY)$: - FY26 already ~$86B. Metabolic franchise can be $150B+ by early 2030s - GLP-1 cash funds the real product:
My 2033 Take on Who the Largest 3 Companies in the World

Be Bullish on the SNAP

Seeing lots of bullish takes on $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ post CEO comments. Here's some thoughts: 1. Zero CEO buys in the last few years. Only out of control SBC. 2. There's only so long investors can deal with weak margins. -> $Reddit(RDDT)$ has 33% FCF margins and 45% net income margins. -> $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ has 7.4% FCF margins and 14% net income margins. They're the two MAIN issues amongst a few others. The positive is if $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ and other can turn these around then the upside is pretty decent. Say
Be Bullish on the SNAP

There is No Reason to Short These

Let's get this straight: Michael Burry is short: -> $Oracle(ORCL)$: Reaccelerating revenue growth to +33% in FY27 and +46% in FY28 trading at 6x sales. -> $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$: Rule of 40 score at 134 / PEG at ~1x -> $NEBIUS(NBIS)$: Compute demand far outweighing supply. Forecasting ARR $3B -> +$70B in 5 years. -> $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Supply constrained and growing ~70% -> ~$680B in FY28 (7.9x FY28 sales) -> $Micron Technology(MU)$: Customers signing LTAs to 2030+ / Tradin
There is No Reason to Short These

Be Bullish AI Infra Through to FY28

Mix of lower-beta and higher-beta names I'd prioritize today being bullish AI infra through to FY28. Lower beta: - $Amazon.com(AMZN)$: $1T in AWS revs forecasted by 2035. Current MC ~$2.8B (e-comm, digital ads, moonshot bets, Anthropic stake etc). - $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: 70% FY28 revenue growth despite being capacity constrained. Sub 0.3x PEG for FY28. - $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$: Jensen's "trillion dollar" company. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ has option to buy $12.2B of the company which could translate to $120 billion in revs over the next 7 years. Medium-beta: -
Be Bullish AI Infra Through to FY28

Here are Some Higher Beta Stocks

Some higher beta stocks that are at...or very close to being great r/r: 1. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$: A top 10 position already for me. ARR is at $3B now and I'm modelling ~$70B for 2030. 2. $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$: I want a slightly lower price to add but forecasting ~$10 EPS in FY28 which is 70% CAGR from today which at 35x multiple (0.5x PEG) gives you a $350 stock. 3. $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$: Incredible business inflection with operating income +700% and revs +166%. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ has cancelled a combustion order to switch to
Here are Some Higher Beta Stocks

NVDA& AMZN: Which One is Winner in the Place?

I don't see a world where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ or $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ don't end up ~2x from where they are today. -> Nvidia: We have a supply constrained business growing ~90% in FY27 and +70% in FY28 with 55% net income margins meaning we're trading ~13.5x FY28 EPS. 13.5x FY28 EPS is literally sub 0.2x PEG (for FY28). -> Amazon Further down the road but AWS likely reaches $1T in revenue in the next 9 years as per my model. At $2.75T MC today with digital ads on track for being a $800B business, e-comm ~$800B, Anthropic stakes, Prime, and everything else. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ likely has a lot more than 2x in the next
NVDA& AMZN: Which One is Winner in the Place?

CRDO: The Undervauled Stock for Superior competitiveness

1. I own a small amount of $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ 2. $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ is a volatile stock. 3. I think $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ about 10-20% lower is where the r/r becomes too good to ignore. Here's a few reasons why that is true: -> Should do +$6.50 in EPS in FY27 and ~$10 in EPS in FY28 which is 70% CAGR. If we trade at ~$130 that means we're trading sub 15x FY28 EPS which considering would be a bargain at 70% growth. Back when $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ traded at sub $100 it
CRDO: The Undervauled Stock for Superior competitiveness

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