I think the bigger force at th-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

I think the bigger force at the long end is the term premium rather than just expectations for another Fed hike.

Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance mean investors need to absorb more duration, while inflation uncertainty makes them demand higher compensation for holding 10Y and 30Y bonds. That can push long yields higher even if the Fed eventually pauses.

So I am watching Treasury supply, auction demand and the term premium closely. If those pressures persist, a Fed pause may bring limited relief to long yields, keeping valuation pressure on equities, especially long-duration growth stocks.

Insider Selling at a 197x Valuation — Should the Market Take Notice?

Nebius fell 5.09% to $237.15 Wednesday on reports its COO cut their stake, with the stock near 197x earnings. Bulls say one executive's sale doesn't change the business, especially a session after it jumped on an inference contract win; bears say at 197x any insider selling gets amplified, and the seller has the closest view of operations — not something to wave off as routine planning. What would make this sale a genuine red flag?

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Comments

a9032
10-09 21:22
a9032
Long yields staying sticky probably keep pressure on rich growth multiples into next Q1. I care more about earnings guides now because that downgrade risk still feels underpriced
EmilyMark
10-09 21:22
EmilyMark
QT matters too here. Balance sheet runoff changes the net duration the market has to digest, so a pause without slower QT may not ease the long end much

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If those pressures persist, a Fed pause may bring limited relief to long yields, keeping valuation pressure on equities, especially long-duration growth stocks.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I think the bigger force at the long end is the term premium rather than just expectations for another Fed hike.\n<p></p>\n<p>Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance mean investors need to absorb more duration, while inflation uncertainty makes them demand higher compensation for holding 10Y and 30Y bonds. That can push long yields higher even if the Fed eventually pauses.</p>\n<p>So I am watching Treasury supply, auction demand and the term premium closely. If those pressures persist, a Fed pause may bring limited relief to long yields, keeping valuation pressure on equities, especially long-duration growth stocks.</p></body></html>","text":"I think the bigger force at the long end is the term premium rather than just expectations for another Fed hike. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance mean investors need to absorb more duration, while inflation uncertainty makes them demand higher compensation for holding 10Y and 30Y bonds. That can push long yields higher even if the Fed eventually pauses. So I am watching Treasury supply, auction demand and the term premium closely. 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