(Part 1 of 3) I. Economic and Earnings Calendar - BlackRock?

KYHBKO
10-11 22:07

My Investing Muse — Week of October 12, 2026

Three weeks before the midterms, markets have a lot to digest. This week, I’m focusing on what the key numbers mean—and what I plan to do about them.

I. Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday is Columbus Day. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open.

Big banks start reporting Tuesday, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. UnitedHealth also reports.

Wednesday is the key day. September inflation data arrives at 8:30 a.m., alongside results from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. Economists expect headline inflation of 3.6–3.7% and core inflation of 2.4%. The Fed still expects another rate increase this year, but markets see only a small chance of one on October 28. If core inflation runs hotter than expected, markets could react sharply.

Thursday brings retail sales, producer inflation, the Philadelphia Fed survey and jobless claims. TSMC also reports before the market opens.

Friday brings oil inventory data, industrial production, several regional-bank earnings reports and a speech from Fed Chair Warsh.

BlackRock: What I’m Watching

BlackRock matters because it shows where investors are putting their money. A bank shows its own balance sheet; BlackRock gives a broader view of market flows.

Its second-quarter results were strong: a record $15.3 trillion in assets, $868 billion of inflows over 12 months and a 45.9% operating margin. Its iShares business passed $6 trillion.

The longer-term picture is mixed. Revenue rose from $19.4 billion in 2021 to $24.2 billion in 2025, helped by acquisitions. But reported profit fell in 2025 as integration, depreciation and interest costs increased. Adjusted earnings grew, but the headline profit did not. One positive sign: deferred technology revenue nearly doubled to $3.8 billion, which points to income that has been contracted but not yet recognised.

On Wednesday, I want to know whether money kept flowing into BlackRock’s funds during August and September. I’ll also listen for comments on private credit, where higher interest rates may be starting to pressure valuations.

@TigerStars

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Comments

  • wobee
    10-12 14:12
    wobee
    That 45.9% operating margin is wild, but the bigger tell is the deferred tech revenue at 3.8B. If flows held through August and September, the next few quarters could look cleaner than headline profit suggests
    • KYHBKO: 
      yes, this is quite a feat. the tech revenue is under scrutiny.
  • Trevelyan
    10-12 14:12
    Trevelyan
    August and September flows matter more than the margin here. If core CPI runs hot, iShares and private credit both get a tougher tape fast.
    • KYHBKO: 
      yes, let us monitor the Core CPI.
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