That 50% threshold makes me much less willing to call the Tesla-SpaceX merger a done deal. It is not 50% of votes cast, but 50% of ALL Tesla shares, meaning abstentions and shareholders who simply do not vote effectively make the hurdle harder to clear. Musk himself called it “quite a high hurdle”, while the independent committees have not even agreed on transaction terms yet.
I think the deal is credible and clearly being explored seriously, but “inevitable” is too strong. The eventual valuation and exchange ratio will be crucial. If Tesla shareholders feel they are giving SpaceX too generous a valuation, even investors who like the strategic AI, robotics and infrastructure synergies could reject it.
For me: serious possibility, yes. Certainty, definitely not yet.
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