(Part 3 of 5) - Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)

KYHBKO
10-26

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)

Technicals as of Friday 23 October close (Yahoo Finance data):

· Close 7,623.68 — down ~0.5% on the week, ~2.5% below the record 7,818.9 set earlier this month, still +11.4% year to date.

· Below the 50-day average (7,700) and 20-day exponential average (7,713), but above the 200-day average (7,291). Short-term strength has faded; the longer-term uptrend holds. The index is roughly 330 points above its 200-day average.

· MACD: −3.1, below its +12.6 signal line. This price-trend indicator suggests weakening momentum.

· Chaikin Money Flow: −0.02. This price-and-volume indicator suggests modest, not heavy, selling.

· Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42. Momentum is weak, but not yet “oversold”—a level suggesting unusually heavy selling.

· The long-term trend stays positive, but momentum and volume favour sellers short term.

Sentiment. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index fell from 46 to 18 on Friday 16 October, when the S&P fell 1.09% and the Nasdaq had its worst week since June. It was 31 mid-week and about 21 on Thursday 22 October; that finhacker.cz mirror reading needs CNN confirmation. The draft reports no extreme-greed days this year despite record highs. Investing News Network, 20 October, finhacker.cz

Weekly outlook: NEUTRAL, leaning cautious. Positives: the long-term uptrend holds, and sentiment is fearful just 2.5% below record highs. A quiet Fed decision and strong major-company earnings could lift prices as investors unwind protection. Risks: weaker momentum, prices below a falling 50-day average, Brent near US$110, reduced Hormuz shipping and inflation that could bring higher rates. Five central-bank decisions and three major earnings reports create unusual uncertainty. Focus on position sizes and Thursday’s data, rather than predicting outcomes.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Bank earnings intensify: net interest margin or loan-loss reserves first?
Bank Q3 results intensify: JPMorgan reported Tuesday; Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report Wednesday a.m. ET, BlackRock follows. BofA fell Tuesday after a $1.2B Treasury fine. Two lines matter: whether net interest margins hold or expand, and whether consumer and commercial loan-loss provisions rise in tandem. Bulls say high rates still support NIM and capital markets trading has recovered. Bears say elevated provisions would signal credit deterioration across the financial sector. Net interest margin or loan-loss provisions — which actually moves bank stocks this week?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Juliaaa11
    10-26
    Juliaaa11
    RSI 42 is not oversold yet, but MACD flipping negative with price under the 50 day says short term momentum is fading faster than it looks. I care more about whether 7291 keeps holding
    • KYHBKO: 
      yes. the earnings will play their part. 
  • Emilian
    10-28 00:20
    Emilian
    RSI 42 is not oversold yet, but MACD flipping negative with price under the 50 day says short term momentum is fading faster than it looks. I care more about whether 7291 keeps holding
  • TehCBing
    10-29 23:15
    TehCBing
    niceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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