H2 Outlook: How Do You Position for the Second Part?

As the second half (H2) of the year officially kicks off, how do you see the outlook shaping up? After all the market gains in H1, are you positioning differently moving forward? What’s your game plan for H2 — staying with the winners, rotating into laggards, or playing it safe with defensives? Let us know your take — bullish, cautious, or somewhere in between?

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10-19

<Part 2 of 5> Earnings Calendar - time for Tesla? (20 Oct 2025)

Earnings Calendar (20Oct25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, Procter & Gamble (P&G), General Motors (GM), and Raytheon. Who is Tesla? Tesla’s business centres on accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The company’s primary business is its Automotive Segment, which generates most of its revenue by designing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles (EVs) like the Model 3 and Model Y. Key aspects include a direct-to-consumer sales model, the proprietary Supercharger network, and the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as a future recurring revenue stream. The secondary, but growing, seg
<Part 2 of 5> Earnings Calendar - time for Tesla? (20 Oct 2025)
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10-19

<Full Article: Investing blog> Time to buy Tesla? Preview of the week starting 20Oct25

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 20Oct25) Public Holidays Singapore is closed on 20th Oct 2025 (Monday) as we join our citizens to celebrate Diwali (also known as Deepavali in Singapore). There are no holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China and America. Here is wishing all a blessed “Festival of Lights”. Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is a summary of key economic data releases anticipated in the coming week, categorised by region and topic. These indicators are likely to introduce volatility and inform policy expectations. Inflation and Monetary Policy Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is projected to be the most closely watched economic indicator of the week, as it serves as a primary reference for US inflation. The outcom
<Full Article: Investing blog> Time to buy Tesla? Preview of the week starting 20Oct25
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10-12

<Part 5 of 5> My investing muse - layoffs, closures, bankruptcies, Tariff War & Hedging (13Oct25)

My Investing Muse (13Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Investing - TRUMP: WILL BE MAKING PERMANENT CUTS DUE TO SHUTDOWN “US auto bankruptcies show rising credit pain in low-income households,” per Reuters. 44% of US homeowners and renters are struggling to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, per Redfin “Gen Z are dipping into their retirements, skipping meals and selling their belongings just to get by,” per FORTUNE CNBC - France’s political chaos throws its soaring debt and deficit into the spotlight This is the largest trucking bankruptcy of the year - 1000 employees out of work at Montgomery Transport. - X user Craig Fuller An insurance executive told me that he expects new trucking and brokerage policies will forbid hiring non-domiciled CDLs. “It’s all over.” -
<Part 5 of 5> My investing muse - layoffs, closures, bankruptcies, Tariff War & Hedging (13Oct25)
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10-12

<Part 4 of 5> News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) - Electricity, AI and more

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) There is a $1.65 trillion wipeout in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supply issues with the new Tariffs. Any margin call yet? China may not return to the table. There have been a million signs that the stock market is disconnected from reality and a nasty crash was coming. You just weren’t looking in the right place. The economy has been crumbling since February, its just no one in the casino wanted to close the tables. - X user Craig Fuller. China just hit back with export controls on 12 rare earth elements and now wants foreign buyers to get licenses too. Beijing controls 70% of rare earth mining, 90% of processing, and 93% of permanent magnet production. It also refines 100% of global samarium. Good luck
<Part 4 of 5> News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) - Electricity, AI and more
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10-12

<Part 1 of 5> Economic Calendar - CPI this week (13 Oct 25)

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 13Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China, Hong Kong and the USA. Singapore is closed on 13 Oct 2025 as we celebrate Deepavali (Diwali). Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is an overview of the key economic events and data releases anticipated to drive market sentiment and volatility in the coming week. Inflationary Data Market attention will be primarily focused on two critical inflation metrics, which are particularly relevant following recent Federal Reserve (Fed) communications: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is the most anticipated economic event. As a primary measure of inflation, any significant deviation from market forecasts is likely to induce substantial market volatili
<Part 1 of 5> Economic Calendar - CPI this week (13 Oct 25)
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10-11

Latest US-China trade conflict (8.20am SGT, 11Oct25)

Latest US-China trade conflict (8.20am SGT, 11Oct25) As of 08:20 AM +08 on October 11, 2025, the U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports and export controls on critical software, effective November 1, 2025, in response to China’s aggressive trade stance, as per an X post by TradingThomas (October 10). This move, triggered by China’s export restrictions, has led to a $1.65 trillion market drop, per WatcherGuru. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently updated its policies, announcing export controls on superhard materials (e.g., artificial diamond micropowder) effective November 8, 2025, citing national security, as reported by Global Times (October 9-10). This may be a retaliatory measure or an independent strategy, though
Latest US-China trade conflict (8.20am SGT, 11Oct25)
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10-11
There is a $1.65 trillion wipe out in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supplies issue with the new Tariffs.  Any margin call yet?  China may not return to the table. What can we do? I will try to cover some potential impact in the next investing blog.
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10-05

<Part 5 of 5> My Investing Muse (06Oct25) - layoffs, bankruptcy, closure, recession & leverage

My Investing Muse (06Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news A bar chart displaying employers\' planned job additions in the US from 2011 to 2025, with data points for each September. Green bars vary in height, representing the number of jobs, with the y-axis labeled up to 1,000,000 and the x-axis showing years. The 2025 bar is notably low. Text overlay reads "Employers in US Dial Back Hiring Intentions, Planned job additions were the weakest for any September since 2011" and includes the Bloomberg watermark. Auto Parts Supplier First Brands Group Bankruptcy’s Spells Potential Trouble for Loads of People Who Own a Car, Truck, or SUV - MotorTrend NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Two auto sector bankruptcies have rattled parts of the U.S. credit market, raising concerns about a deteriorat
<Part 5 of 5> My Investing Muse (06Oct25) - layoffs, bankruptcy, closure, recession & leverage
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10-05

<Part 3 of 5> Market outlook of S&P500 - what 20+ indicators say

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Oct25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.21, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Technical analysis on the daily interval strongly supports a Strong Buy rating. This consensus is based on 22 technical indicators signalling a buy, with zero indicators signalling a sell. This alignment suggests significant short-term positi
<Part 3 of 5> Market outlook of S&P500 - what 20+ indicators say
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10-03

AI - quotes and contemplations

X user Qcapital2020 has compiled a list of quotes in a recent post: 1.Jim Farley (CEO, Ford): “AI will replace half of all white-collar workers in the US.” 2.Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic): “White-collar bloodbath” — up to 50% of entry roles gone in 5 yrs. 3.Andy Jassy (CEO, Amazon): “We will need fewer people … this will reduce our total corporate workforce.” 4.Allison Kirkby (CEO, BT Group): AI could make layoffs “even deeper” than planned. 5.Arvind Krishna (CEO, IBM): ~7,800 roles could be automated out; paused hiring in replaceable areas. 6.Doug McMillon (CEO, Walmart): “AI is going to change literally every job.” 7.Marc Benioff (CEO, Salesforce): Cut 4,000 support jobs; AI now handles ~50% of calls. 8.Sebastian Siemiatkowski (CEO, Klarna): Workforce shrank from ~5,500 to ~3,000 v
AI - quotes and contemplations
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFAI)$ Taking position at all time low.
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09-29

<Part 5 of 5> Layoffs, Supply Chain suggest recession & more - my investing muse (29Sep25)

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news Neiman Marcus mall anchor store to close. The good news, though, is that malls have a prime opportunity to shift into mixed-use properties. - The Street The village of Maitland is reeling after the closure of the Invista plant. It will mean a loss of 100 jobs and some worry it’s a sign American companies may be exiting Canada. - CBC Veritas Investments, a real estate giant that owns thousands of housing units across the West Coast, has defaulted on $652 million in debt and is facing the foreclosure of 66 buildings in San Francisco - MacroEdge Major mattress company closing key factory, laying off workers. Mattress industry sales decline: Q2 2025 sales: 4.3% decline. Q1 2025 sales: $2.4 billion, 5.7% decline. 2024 annual sales: $9.2 bil
<Part 5 of 5> Layoffs, Supply Chain suggest recession & more - my investing muse (29Sep25)
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09-29

<Part 4 of 5> News of my thoughts from past week (29Sep25)

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Sep25) There are concerns about the AI Boom The current AI boom is not sustainable, a new Deutsche Bank research note warned. AI capex is now so massive that it is keeping the U.S. out of recession, the bank said. Separately, Bain & Co. estimate there will be an $800 billion shortfall in the revenues needed to fund the demand for AI computing power. About half the S&P 500’s gains this year have been driven by tech stocks. Underlying real GDP growth excluding tech spending sits around 0% in 24 to 25, which implies the economy is hovering near recession. The current lift mostly comes from building data centers and power supply, not from AI software output, so the driver is construction and equipment orders. AI capital expenditure is huge wit
<Part 4 of 5> News of my thoughts from past week (29Sep25)
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09-29

<Part 3 of 5> S&P 500 weekly outlook (29Sep25) with over 20 indicators & candlestick patterns

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Sep25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bearish uptrend with the completed top crossover. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. However, the lines are converging without an overlap. We can expect a convergence to take place in the coming days. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.25, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Using the technical analysis provided by investing dot com, the S&P 500 has a strong recommendation based on the daily interval. 21 indicators are showing
<Part 3 of 5> S&P 500 weekly outlook (29Sep25) with over 20 indicators & candlestick patterns
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09-27

MIT - 95% of Generative AI projects are failing to deliver meaningful results despite $44 billion investment (27Sep2025)

The AI Hype vs. Reality: MIT Study Signals a Need for Strategic Focus Source: Forbes article A recent MIT study, “The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025,” reveals a sobering truth: 95% of generative AI projects are failing to deliver meaningful results despite $44 billion invested in AI startups and tools in the first half of 2025. This gap between hype and impact demands a strategic rethink for the AI industry. Why Projects Fail The study identifies a “learning gap” as a core issue, with enterprises deploying off-the-shelf AI models misaligned with specific business needs. Over half of AI budgets are squandered on low-impact areas like sales and marketing, while high-value domains like logistics and R&D are underutilised. Worker scepticism is rampant—62% view AI as overhyped—l
MIT - 95% of Generative AI projects are failing to deliver meaningful results despite $44 billion investment (27Sep2025)
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09-24

Patterns that precede market crashes

Here is a summary of the patterns that precede market crashes - compiled from a recent article by Howard Marks (Oaktree). This is extracted from his 14 Aug 2025 article titled “the Calculus of value”. ​Market crashes are not random but are often the culmination of recurring historical patterns. Four key indicators consistently appear: ​Overvaluation: The price of assets is driven by narratives and belief rather than by fundamental value and profitability. ​Leverage: The use of borrowed money to fund growth creates a fragile structure that is vulnerable to shifts in economic conditions like rising interest rates. ​Complacency: A prolonged period of calm markets leads investors to assume risk has vanished, making them unprepared for potential downturns. ​Euphoria: Markets are driven by senti
Patterns that precede market crashes
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09-21

<Part 5 of 5> My investing muse (22Sep25) - layoffs, AI adoption, China stops Nvidia, indicators for recession

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news There is a HUGE disconnect between Job Openings and the market New survey conducted by Resume.org What happens after Trump’s clampdown on H1-B visas? US companies will try to move offices to India. If the US gov tries to kill outsourcing, then India-US relations will go downhill fast. At that point, India will be forced to develop its own IT or switch to Chinese infrastructure. Lots of turmoil ahead. - X user S.L. Kanthan Layoffs announced in Germany, past 12 months: • Volkswagen: 35,000 • Mercedes-Benz: 40,000 • Audi: 7,500 • Ford: 2,900 • Daimler Truck: 5,000 • ZF Group: 14,000 • Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler (combined): 7,000 German economy is not in a crisis, it’s imploding. - X user Michael. A Arouet These are some of the layoffs
<Part 5 of 5> My investing muse (22Sep25) - layoffs, AI adoption, China stops Nvidia, indicators for recession
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09-21

<Part 4 of 5> News and my muse (22Sep25)

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Sep25) The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up - The Maverick of Wall Street The Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class - BarChart U.S. Dollar has now lost more than 10% of its value this year - BarChart Recent survey of Harvard students, by @TheFIREorg There is a baseline for morality. When violence becomes a viable option due to differing opinions, have we lost our moral compass? @TigerStars $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$
<Part 4 of 5> News and my muse (22Sep25)
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09-21

<Part 3 of 5> Market outlook for S&P 500 (22Sep25)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Sep25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. However, it is important to note that a continuation of the prior downtrend remains a possibility, and this signal should be confirmed with other indicators. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.30, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. The technical analysis has a “Strong Buy” recommendation for the S&P500. 21 indicators recommend a “
<Part 3 of 5> Market outlook for S&P 500 (22Sep25)
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09-21

<Part 1 of 5> Economic Calendar for the week (22Sep25) - PCE (inflation) data this week

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 22Sep25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China. Global Economic Forecasts and Market Volatility Economic Indicators The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is projected at 51.8, while the S&P Global Services PMI is at 53.8, both forecasts indicating an expansion in their respective global sectors. Upcoming Market Events Several key events and data releases are expected to influence market volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech is anticipated to impact market sentiment. New home sales and existing home sales data will provide insights into the real estate market. Durable goods orders are forecast to decrease by 0.4%. The PCE Price Index, th
<Part 1 of 5> Economic Calendar for the week (22Sep25) - PCE (inflation) data this week