This is 99-year seasonality $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ across the 4-year presidential cycle: This is where you are: 1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend 2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns 3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here) 4. Pre-election → strong rally This chart shows the peak around April then weakness into Septemer. Then massive rally into pre-election year Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly): 1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem The market rallied on the idea of cuts. 2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time We were trending toward 2%… Now back above 3%. This traps the Fed. They can’t cut. 3. Oil + war = earnings compression If oil keeps pushing high